Fantasy Spin December 28, 2014

This afternoon’s 4:30 start for Detroit at Cleveland leaves it on a DFS island; the vast majority of daily fantasy contests close at 7:00 Eastern and cover the five NBA games on Sunday evening.

There are a few H2H and private leagues available at 4:30 that do include Pistons/Cavs — avoid Kyrie Irving $9200 (knee) and consider Greg Monroe $7300 — then don’t forget that DraftKings also offers Late contests which close at 9:00 ET, spanning just three games full of daily value for yet another chance to win. We are focused on the 7:00 action in today’s sample lineups and Short List.

Plays of the Day

Open a new account at DK and get a FREE entry for today’s $25K Layup — the winner gets $2,000 and 3,000 of 14,375 teams earn cash prizes. Your initial deposit ($5 or more) is matched 100% up to $600 with bonus money, which you earn a dollar at a time as you play.

James Harden $11600 might be even better when Dwight Howard $9000 is around and Josh Smith $7500 wasn’t shy in his Houston debut. If Smoove starts looking for dunks and letting Trevor Ariza $6400 take the threes, the Rockets are awesome. Donatas Motiejunas $5200 retains some value backing up both big men and Corey Brewer $4900 is going to have his moments off the bench.

Sympathy to the snakebit Spurs. Kawhi Leonard (hand) and Tony Parker (hamstring) are far from 100% if and when they play. Cory Joseph $5000 won’t be able to beat the defensive specialist Patrick Beverley $5700 so it’s Tim Duncan $8700 or nobody from San Antonio for me.

Sample lineup #1 (right) surrounds Harden and Smith with the best PG I can afford and five potential bargains. It’s a classic stars-and-scrubs approach.

Another interesting game boils down to Russell Westbrook $11900 and Serge Ibaka $6800 vs. the new-look Dallas Mavericks. If Kevin Durant $10500 (ankle) does suit up, he’ll impact the game, but the Thunder don’t play again until Wednesday and I’m guessing we see KD then. Rajon Rondo $7900 has been calling his own number and Tyson Chandler $7000 is consistent. Chandler Parsons $7100 has disappeared, Dirk Nowitzki $6700 seldom exceeds 30 minutes and Monta Ellis $7400 has yet to have a monster game in the small sample size since Rondo arrived. To my astonishment, Charlie Villanueva $3000 has been thriving off the bench.

The Trailblazers have lost Robin Lopez (hand) for a while, and LaMarcus Aldridge $10400 is not feeling well. Joel Freeland $3000 grabbed 17 rebounds against the Sixers on Friday and could be very good again. LMA is officially ‘doubtful’ and Lillard is the man until he returns, with Wesley Matthews $5900 bombing away (18-for-35 from deep in four games.) Nicolas Batum $6700 has returned from his wrist injury to help at both ends of the floor. Chris Kaman $4500 missed Friday’s game and Saturday’s practice to be with his wife and new baby; if he plays, Freeland may lose a bit of value. Carmelo Anthony $10300 logged 46 minutes in an OT loss last night, so the exhausted Knicks have lost seven in a row and 17 of 18. Only Cole Aldrich $4800 is on my radar today, as a faint blip.

Those streaky Suns have five consecutive wins after six straight losses. The Lakers are the easiest team in the Association to score against. Factor in some reasonable salaries and we don’t need to predict who will get hot, we can play them all. Eric Bledsoe $9300 took over this building Dec. 8 with a massive triple-double ‘revenge game’ against the Clippers. Goran Dragic $7700 and Isaiah Thomas $5900 are too good for the Lakers’ PG, Markieff Morris $6600 is consistent and brother Marcus Morris $4100 occasionally explodes (20 PTS, 9 REB, 5 AST on Friday). Alex Len $4800 has asserted himself as a starter. P.J. Tucker $4600 plays more when Phoenix is ahead; Gerald Green $4900 becomes more valuable when they are trailing.

Kobe Bryant $9400 is listed as ‘probable’ after a week of rest, but who knows how (or if) he will impact this game. Reasonably hot in his absence were Wesley Johnson $4900, Nick Young $5200, Wayne Ellington $4000 and Ed Davis $4600 — all are much better value in DFS if Kobe is ruled out.

Sample lineup #2 (above left) is a stack of seven Phoenix players, which left $7,000 for the Util spot. Ibaka, Nowitzki and Batum are similarly-priced alternatives to Chandler.

Kyle Lowry $10100 completely outplayed Chris Paul yesterday and can repeat that effort vs. Ty Lawson $9600. Lithuanian Jonas Valanciunas $6300 might prove too quick for Russian Timofey Mozgov. With 16 points, six assists and four rebounds, Greivis Vasquez was the bench hero vs. the Clippers but Lou Williams $4500 is shooting just 37% over his last five games. He’s either mired in a slump or overdue. Denver won’t concede; I’ve been touting Kenneth Faried $6200 in this space for his last two full-Manimal games and am not sure that Amir Johnson $4800 or Patrick Patterson $4900 can slow him down. James Johnson $4500 can be a bargain, but saw just 21 minutes on Sunday as Coach of the Year candidate Dwane Casey continues to mix and match.

Pos	Premium	Midrange	Bargain
PG	Russell Westbrook $11900	Rajon Rondo $7900	Jose Calderon $4800
SG	James Harden $11600	Eric Bledsoe $9300	Wesley Matthews $5900
SF	Carmelo Anthony $10500	Josh Smith $7500	James Johnson $4500
PF	Tim Duncan $8700	Kenneth Faried $6200	Marcus Morris $4100
C	Dwight Howard $9000	Tyson Chandler $7000	Alex Len $4800