Is Draymond Green worth picking as an All-Star reserve this year?
By the typical numbers alone, there is no chance that the starting power forward of the Golden State Warriors would make the exclusive team: he is averaging 12.1 points on 44.4 percent shooting from the field, 1.5 3-pointers on 34.1 percent shooting, 8.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and two turnovers.
Actually, those numbers aren’t exactly shabby. According to basketball-reference.com, there are only two other players in NBA history to average at least eight rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.5 3-pointers in a single season: Jason Kidd and Antoine Walker (twice), and those guys didn’t block 1.5 shots per game. It shows that Green is, in fact, one of the most unique players in the NBA in terms of his versatility on the floor – he is the ultimate Swiss Army knife. He does whatever is needed for the team to win whether it’s getting a defensive stop against a player much larger or smaller than him (he can literally guard all five positions at various stages of the game), providing consistent help defense at the rim (which is not supposed to be there right now with Andrew Bogut having missed the past few weeks), hitting a timely three, making a killer pass or finding a way to grab a key rebound in heavy traffic despite being heavily undersized. He comes out with unbelievable energy every single game, which is why you always hear the stories about Steve Kerr calling him the “heartbeat” of the team. Simpy put, the Warriors would not be the best team in the league without him, and the numbers, as unique as they are, don’t necessarily do justice to what he really means to the team.
The problem is that he is not a scorer, so the 12.1 points doesn’t exactly stand out in a loaded Western Conference full of machines like DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, Marc Gasol, Kevin Durant and other “sexy” names to choose from at the forward spot. Make no mistake: the names mentioned (except maybe Cousins due to missed games and team record) all deserve recognition for what they’ve done for their respective teams, and at least three of those names will be voted in by the fans.
The game, however, is more than just about scoring and rebounding. Fans may not necessarily know or care about that, but the ones voting in the reserves – the coaches – certainly care, and most of them know by first hand how devastating Green has been against their teams, particularly on the defensive end. Here are some more numbers to back up the impact of Green: once occupied by Bogut (who is no longer eligible due to missed games), Green is No. 1 in the league in both individual defensive rating and defensive win shares. He is 12th overall in plus/minus and is second just behind Tim Duncan in defensive plus/minus. The Warriors have maintained their No. 1 defense in the league despite playing without their anchor Bogut for the last 13 games thanks in large part to Green’s contributions. Yes, he has been good enough to be this season’s Defensive Player of the Year up to this point, and we may not have seen a player as unique as Green on the defensive end since Dennis Rodman (minus the inhuman rebounding, of course).
With Bogut sidelined, Green stepped it up a notch on the defensive end in a big way in December, averaging 2.1 steals and 1.9 blocks. The 8.9 rebounds weren’t crazy impressive, but it doesn’t explain all the times he hustled and found a way to tap away an opponent’s rebound for another teammate to secure – just another subtle way he impacted the game in a way the box score didn’t show. Be it Russell Westbrook or Blake Griffin, Green has been the ultimate disrupter any time an opponent comes anywhere near the paint area.
His impact on the offensive end also cannot be overlooked: he stretches the big men in the league with his ability to knock down 3-pointers (hit seven 3-pointers against a helpless Joakim Noah) and his strong basketball IQ enables him to make a quick, snappy pass that often leads to an assist or a hockey assist. This is extremely important to the team and Stephen Curry in particular, because Curry was forced into trying to create everything on offense last year and often looked gassed late in games. That is no longer the case with Green providing some serious relief as a secondary playmaker. He nearly had a triple-double against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Dec. 18 with 16 points, nine rebounds and nine assists in an impressive 114-109 victory, and had his first career triple-double against the Toronto Raptors on Jan. 2 with 16 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists in another dominant performance.
With all these things in mind about Green, lets get to the whole All-Star thing. So far, Davis, Griffin and Gasol are on track to start at the forward positions. Assuming Durant catches up and takes Gasol’s spot, the center will surely be voted in by the coaches as a reserve, with Aldridge and perhaps Tim Duncan (?) rounding out the available forward slots (three forwards are selected as reserves). Of course, things get a little more interesting if Durant doesn’t get voted in by the fans: has he played enough games for the coaches to vote him in this year? Lets also remember that because of his absence (along with Westbrook’s), they are currently out of the playoff race.
So how does Green fit into the picture?
There are two reserve spots for guards, followed by two wild card spots regardless of position. Assuming Stephen Curry and Kobe Bryant keep up the pace to be starters at the guard spots, James Harden and Russell Westbrook will likely be the two reserve guards. That leaves two spots open for the following players: Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Cousins, Klay Thompson, and Monta Ellis.
As usual, someone is going to get screwed, but who is it going to be this year and in what fashion? First thing you have to consider are standings: it’s no secret that coaches like to reward players who play for winning teams. In that sense, it’s tough to include Cousins, who not only plays for a losing team, but also missed roughly two weeks of action due to illness.
Notice, though, that Green wasn’t included on that list for the wild card spots. Why? Because given what he has done and what he has meant for a team whose current record stands at a ridiculous 27-5, he should really be in with the reserve forwards. That’s easier said than done because it means you vote him in over Duncan, who has been ridiculously good in his own right despite his age, but it’s also worth noting that San Antonio Spurs are currently the seventh best team in the West. Again, this gets much easier if Gasol somehow holds off Durant as a starter.
I brought up the possibility of Green becoming an All-Star this year with much resistance from twitter followers, but there is at least one twitter member who agrees with the idea: his mother Mary Babers-Green:
@JRAM_91 @SheridanBlog if the game wasn’t a popularity contest he would be…
— Mary Babers-Green (@babers_mary) January 6, 2015
Lucky for the Greens, it’s not as much of a popularity contest for the coaches. Again, no one has felt the sting of Green’s impact on games more than the coaches themselves. I’d be surprised if it isn’t, at the very least, a super close call for him to make it to this year’s All-Star game.
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James Park is a blogger and editor of Sheridan Hoops. Follow him on twitter @SheridanBlog.