The next 36 games will likely determine point guard Reggie Jackson’s career trajectory.
Jackson, 24, will become a restricted free agent after the season, assuming he doesn’t exercise a $3.4 million qualifying offer Oklahoma City will almost certainly extend him. How much a team will offer him and what his role will be for the foreseeable future will probably be decided over the duration of the regular season and in the postseason, if the 23-23 Thunder even reach the Western playoffs.
Before the season, Jackson was reportedly determined to pass on any contract extension offers with the goal of finding a starting job this coming summer. Last October, Yahoo Sports even said that some teams thought he could command $13-14 million per season on an offer sheet in July.
Then with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook injured to start the season, Jackson got his chance to be an offensive focal point. He became the top offensive option for the Thunder and averaged nearly 20 points per game in November, but shot poorly from the field as the Thunder went 3-10 with Jackson in the starting lineup. The bottom line was that when Jackson started, OKC didn’t produce positive results.
“I just gotta go out there and be the best player I can be each and every night,” Jackson told SheridanHoops after Wednesday’s 100-92 loss at New York. “I don’t really worry about what’s coming up, what’s ahead, I’ll deal with that when it happens.”
Since November, Jackson has had fewer minutes to try to play like that eight-figure starter he wants to be. He has not started since Nov. 26 and the Thunder acquired Dion Waiters from Cleveland on Jan. 5 to act as a backcourt insurance policy. Jackson’s minutes have dipped since then, to the point where he hasn’t logged 30 minutes in a game over his last 13 contests, dating back to Dec. 31.
“He’s played less minutes because we picked up Dion Waiters,” Thunder head coach Scott Brooks told SheridanHoops. “If you’re on the court less minutes you’re going to have less points, less rebounds and less assists.”
Indeed, that’s been the case for Jackson, whose point, assist and rebound numbers looked good but whose percentages were quite lacking.
| Jackson | Games | Minutes | FG % | 3 FG % | Points | Assists | Rebounds | O Rating | D Rating |
| Starter | 13 | 38.9 | 41.6 | 27 | 20.2 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 105 | 106 |
| Reserve | 30 | 25.4 | 43.9 | 29.5 | 11.1 | 3 | 3.7 | 106 | 107 |
Jackson hasn’t been that much better percentage-wise coming off the bench, but he’s seen an incremental improvement as the months have gone along and his minutes have shrunk with Waiters now in the fold.
“It has been a little bit up and down for him with the opportunities a little bit,” said Thunder forward and elder statesman Nick Collison. “Overall he’s had a good year for us and he’s an important part of our team.”
The opportunities have come less frequently in the 11 games since the Waiters acquisition, but Jackson has picked his spots better and has been far more efficient from the floor, as seen in the following chart:
| Jackson | Minutes | FG % | 3 FG % | Points | Assists | Rebounds | FTA |
| Without Waiters | 32.4 | 41.9 | 26.6 | 15.3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.875 |
| With Waiters | 20.9 | 47.8 | 37 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 |
Jackson’s baseline numbers obviously went down in 11.5 fewer minutes per game, but he’s shot nearly six percentage points better from the field and improved almost 10.5 percentage points from three.
“Offensively, he’s one of those guys that can get any shot, he can make any play,” said reserve guard Anthony Morrow. “He can pass, he’s a great talent at the point guard position and he’s a very smart player.”
This month, Jackson is only attempting 8.5 shots per game, down from 11.6 in December, and it seems like picking his spots has worked out better for him.
| Jackson | Minutes | FG % | 3 FG % | Points | Assists | Rebounds | O Rating | D Rating |
| November | 38.2 | 41.5 | 26.6 | 19.5 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 106 | 105 |
| December | 28.4 | 43 | 24.1 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 104 | 109 |
| January | 21.5 | 45.9 | 39.4 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 109 | 105 |
In attempting just over 2.5 threes per game in January, his percentage has skyrocketed to over 39 percent from the field and he’s gone from a liability to an asset on the floor this month.
“He’s an important part of our team,” Brooks said. “Like all of our guys, we all have to make sacrifices and minutes shouldn’t be on your mind. It should be just playing well, and Reggie’s been good. With everybody on our team you just gotta focus on what’s important, and that’s winning games.”
While Jackson might maintain that he doesn’t worry about what’s coming up, scouts and executives from around the NBA are going to closely scrutinize Jackson’s play over the next 36 games to gauge what his value should be in free agency. Right now, his overall value to the Thunder hasn’t been so great.
OKC outscores its opponents by just a half point per 48 minutes with Jackson on the floor, according to NBA.com, and is plus-1.7. Conversely, the Thunder are plus-1.9 points per 48 minutes with Waiters on the floor and minus-1.9 per 48 when he sits on the bench.
With Waiters guaranteed just over $5.1 million next season, it doesn’t appear like OKC has much incentive to keep Jackson beyond this season and Bleacher Report says that the team may try to trade Jackson before the Feb. 19 deadline.
Where Jackson will play, how much he’ll play and how much he’ll be making as he enters the prime of his career are all at stake for him over the next 36 games. How he performs could determine how he’s viewed around the league for the duration of his career.
Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who focuses on analytics, profiles and features. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. You should follow him on Twitter.
Another alternative is that he could be traded before by Feb 19, in anticipation that he will be too expensive to keep this summer and might even end up leaving for nothing in return.
For example, OKC was desiring to trade for Brook Lopez (replace offensively inept Perkins) but the Nets aren’t interested in a salary dump, and Charlotte’s Lance Stephenson is not considered desirable, but a Cancer risk.
I could see Nets considering Jackson, but with tell possibly being for sale, they may not want that future salary, as Jackson is by no means a sure thing.