Sheridan: Trade Deadline Lookahead — Who Will be Active?

We don’t get many seasons like this in the NBA, with so many trades happening so early before the deadline. It used to be that GMs would hold out until the last minute, and then the trade queue at NBA headquarters would get jammed at 2:59 p.m. on deadline day.

But this year? Chances are it’ll be more quiet than usual. Rajon Rondo has already be traded. Jameer Nelson has already been traded twice. The Cleveland Cavaliers solved their problems in a matter of days, fleecing Phil Jackson of J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert and then adding Timofey Mozgov from the Nuggets. Many of the top contenders have already done their work, although the jury will remain out on whether someone like Dion Waiters will actually help the Thunder, or whether Austin Rivers can start producing something of substance for the Clippers.

But for every team that has already played its cards, there is another sitting behind a stack of chips. Of course, some stacks are bigger than others, and this type of poker game is played according to who is holding the other hand of cards. For instance, you think anybody is going to give anything of substance to Phil Jackson of the Knicks for Jose Calderon or Pablo Prigioni after he accepted a 2019 2nd-round pick and three players who were waived for Shumpert and Smith?

With that being said, there are a few teams who are more likely than not to be active. So let’s take a look at them, with the teams most likely to make a deal ranked at the top.

DENVER NUGGETS — General manager Tim Connelly told the Denver Post “we are very, very aggressive right now” trying to make deals. Hey, when the guy says “very” twice in the same sentence, he has to be serious, right? The talks with Brooklyn for Brook Lopez are dead, which is no surprise. Nobody wants JaVale McGee and his bloated contract, especially when you really don’t have to give up anything to get a serviceable backup big man. You just have to wait for Hamed Hammadi’s run in the Chinese Basketball Association playoffs to come to an end, and then he is there for the taking. Same with Jeremy Tyler, last seen in the NBA with the New York Knicks. I cannot see Connelly trading away Ty Lawson, but if you want to talk about Danilo Gallinari or Wilson Chandler, then yes, I could see the Nuggets dumping one of those wings for a first-round draft pick. Gallo would be a nice fit in Houston, which leads the NBA in 3-point attempts, and Chandler would add another offensive weapon to the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been wondering all season what happened to the Nicolas Batum they used to know. The Nuggets are looking for first round picks. They already own the Grizzlies’ and the Thunder’s first-round picks, but the protection on those picks makes it unlikely they will be conveyed this June.

TORONTO RAPTORS — They could use an upgrade at the power forward position, and they have numerous expiring contracts — Amir Johnson ($7 million), Landry Fields ($6.25 million), Chuck Hayes ($5.95 million), Lou Williams ($5.45 million) and Tyler Hansbrough ($3.32 million). They have been basically treading water since starting the season en fuego, and general manager Masai Ujiri knows that the championship window is more open this season than many might have expected. Yes, the Cavs are starting to play like everyone expected (only took 3 months), and the Hawks are a spectacular assemblage of well-fitting parts, but it is not like either of those teams could not be knocked off in a seven-game series. In my preseason preview I listed David West of the Pacers as the most likely good player to be traded, and it would not surprise me if some combination of expiring contracts plus a No. 1 pick (the Raptors would give up their own in 2015; but not the one they have coming from the Knicks in 2016) would be offered to Indiana for a player who can produce points and rebounds out of the 4 spot more consistently than Amir Johnson.

HOUSTON ROCKETS — As mentioned above, they shoot more 3-pointers than anyone in the NBA — yet they don’t have anyone who can be considered a dead-eye 3-point shooter. They also don’t have much at the point guard position, no matter how much you like Patrick Beverley. That is one of the reasons why I thought they might be one of the teams that might actually take a serious look at Calderon, who shot 42 percent from behind the arc in the playoffs last season for Dallas and who can run an offense with the best of them. Yes, his defense is sub-par, but with Beverley remaining the starter and defending the opposing PGs, Calderon could get his work done against backups — or in a double PG alignment in which James Harden would still be the primary playmaker. Daryl Morey has already traded his own 2015 first-rounder (to the Lakers in the Jeremy Lin salary dump), but the Rockets are getting the Pelicans’ pick, plus they also own New York’s second-rounders in 2015 and 2016. So they have trade chips for teams looking for future draft picks.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS — If Sam Hinkie does not make any trades to add payroll, he will have to cut a check to the Players Association for $17.5 million. That is because there is a rule that says teams must spend 90 percent of the salary cap on player payroll, and the Sixers are currently a shade below $40 million in committed salary — and that includes the $6.6 million they are giving to their highest-paid player, Jason Richardson, who has not yet played a game for them. Hinkie also is sitting on 10 future second-round picks over the next five years from other teams, and one would think that if he loaded a bunch of those up in a barrel and took on a bad contract from another team, he could get himself another first-rounder. If not, the minimum he can do is broker just about any trade imaginable because of the amount of cap space he has. At the very least, that is a good way to get that total of future second-rounders somewhere north of a dozen. No chance in hell Hinkie is quiet two Thursdays from now.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS — They do not need Carlos Boozer. They do not need Jeremy Lin. What they need is to finish with one of the five worst records in the NBA and then hope for the best on lottery night, because if their picks falls outside of the Top 5, they must send it to the Phoenix Suns as part of the Steve Nash trade. If they can get a second-round pick for either of those players, they’d do it as both are on expiring contracts and both are just good enough to make the difference in the one or two wins/loses that could decide the franchise’s draft fate. Memo to the gamblers: These guys will be as bad over the second half of the season as the Hawks were good.

Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.