The NBA’s trade deadline is now under 48 hours away at 3 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, and it’s the Phoenix Suns who seem to be driving the market.
The Suns are expected to meet Tuesday with Bill Duffy, the agent for Goran Dragic. The assumption, of course, is that the Suns would like an indication from their point guard on his offseason plans. He’ll be a free agent in July and is said to be eyeing an “open” free agency. And with a star like Dragic possibly available, market buyers such as Houston are awaiting resolution on that front before moving down on their list of targets.
Should Dragic ultimately prefer a destination other than Phoenix, this week’s trade deadline could be the last opportunity for the Suns to recoup value for him, rather than risk losing him for no compensation. Bleacher Report‘s Howard Beck predicted Monday that Phoenix will ultimately move Dragic before the week is done, with Houston a “likely destination”.
If Dragic is dealt, the Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers seem to lead the potential suitors. Yahoo‘s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Tuesday that the Suns would minimally want a player with “All-Star potential” and a draft pick in any deal for Dragic. The Rockets could offer a 1st-round draft choice this year from the New Orleans Pelicans — highly likely to be in the lottery — along with someone such as Terrence Jones, Kostas Papanikolaou or 2014 1st-round pick Clint Capela.
That bid would certainly satisfy Phoenix on the draft side of things, but the Suns may not see any of those as having “All-Star potential”. Of Houston’s available players, only seven-footer Donatas Motiejunas has shown flashes of that type of upside, and it appears unlikely that Rockets GM Daryl Morey would move Motiejunas, given Dwight Howard’s ongoing knee problems.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that Suns GM Ryan McDonough will drop his asking price as the deadline approaches. It makes sense for the Suns to ask the world for Dragic, who was a third team All-NBA selection last season and the closest thing to a “face of the franchise” that Phoenix has.
On the other hand, Dragic’s numbers — 16.2 points, 4.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds — have dropped across the board this season as the Suns have struggled to find roles for all three of their starting-caliber point guards. Combine that with the realities that Dragic himself has never been an All-Star and that no team has contractual assurances of him staying beyond this season, and the rumored asking price likely has to be lowered if the Suns are serious about working out a trade.
The other option for Phoenix, of course, is re-signing Dragic to a long-term deal. But in that scenario, something still has to give. McDonough said last week that the team’s “roster balance is a little off”, referring to the three point guards, and the Suns (29-25, currently the West’s No. 8 seed) seem unlikely to make the playoffs with the now-healthy Thunder just a half-game behind them.
That puts Phoenix squarely in the middle ground that NBA teams typically want to avoid — not bad enough to get high draft picks, but not good enough to seriously contend for a title. To become true contenders, the Suns probably need to acquire a legitimate superstar via trade — and none of those appear available at this year’s deadline.
Because of that, Phoenix might need to take a temporary step back in order to take a long-term step forward. Lon Babby, president of basketball operations, said Phoenix tried to make a deal for James Harden before he landed with the Rockets in 2012, but his team lacked the trade assets at the time.
“Going through that experience led me to believe that we need to do exactly what we’re doing now — which is to garner the assets, garner the players that would be attractive to others, so when that next opportunity comes along we could make a compelling case and a compelling package,” Babby said.
The Suns already have some assets, of course. They have all of their own 1st-round draft picks going forward, plus another pick from the Lakers that is Top 5-protected in 2015 and Top 3-protected in 2016. But they may need even more, given the rapid competition that breaks out on the rare occasions that a true star-level talent becomes available.
The question is how Phoenix can best obtain those assets. In the scenario where Dragic stays, they could instead move players such as Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green. Undoubtedly, Phoenix’s ideal scenario is to keep Dragic and get the assets they need by trading one or both of those two. But Thomas — scoring 15.2 points in 25 minutes/game as Phoenix’s “sixth man” off the bench this season — has reportedly been on the trading block all year, and the Suns don’t appear to have found a deal to their liking.
Moreover, with Thomas under contract on a very reasonable deal (under $7 million/season, declining scale) through 2017-18, there’s no rush for the Suns to make a deal including him. If the market isn’t offering fair asset value for Thomas, the Suns can simply wait until the summer to try again. They may not have that luxury with Dragic, given his impending free agency.
There’s still 48 hours for all this to change, of course. As the clock nears zero, perhaps a PG-needy team will give Phoenix the assets they crave for Thomas, thus allowing them to keep Dragic. There’s also the possibility that Dragic could reduce the “risk” factor of him potentially leaving via free agency by pledging his intentions to stay with the team during Tuesday’s meeting.
But if the status quo holds — that means no viable offers for Thomas and Dragic intent on exploring free agency — the Suns may soon find their hand forced by contractual realities. Stay tuned.
JAZZ SET HIGH ASKING PRICE FOR ENES KANTER
The asking price from the Jazz for Enes Kanter is similar to what Phoenix wants for Dragic, reports Yahoo‘s Adrian Wojnarowski, who says the Jazz want a “good young player” and a first-round pick in return for their 6-foot-11, 22-year-old center.
Kanter, averaging 13.8 points and 7.8 rebounds in 27 minutes/game, is said to want out of Utah — and the emergence of second-year French big man Rudy Gobert would indeed seem to make Kanter more expendable from the franchise’s perspective.
Kanter’s market is distinguished from Dragic, though, based on the fact that he’ll be a restricted free agent. That means the Jazz — or any team that hypothetically trades for him — has the right to match outside contract proposals, giving the team substantially more control over his future. That “restricted” designation could bring in smaller-market suitors who typically shy away from players who are set to be unrestricted free agents and could leave them after mere months with no compensation.
Wojnarowski reports that there are multiple teams with interest in Kanter, even with his potential free-agency market likely to reach at least $10 million per season.
OTHER TRADE DEADLINE NEWS & NOTES
Charlotte and Brooklyn were said to be “very close” in January to a trade involving Lance Stephenson and Cody Zeller for Brook Lopez, and both of the principles remain on the trade block, according to Yahoo‘s Marc Spears.
It’s unclear why the original trade fell apart, with the NetsDaily blog reporting Charlotte was ready to call the league office to finalize the deal.
But in his weekly power rankings, Spears writes that the Nets are still “aggressively trying to move” Lopez, adding that Stephenson is “still being shopped” by the Hornets.
It’s unclear whether the original concept will be revisited, but it certainly can’t be ruled out.
Is Ty Lawson available this week? Depends who you ask.
We know Denver is expected to be active at the deadline, with veteran swingmen Arron Afflalo and Wilson Chandler at the top of their list. But would the Nuggets actually move Lawson, the closest thing to a “franchise player” they have? Lawson, averaging 16.9 points and 10.1 assists/game at just 27 years old, is under contract through 2017, so there’s no Dragic-esque financial incentive to rush a deal.
On the other hand, given Lawson’s contract stability, it might be the opportune time for Denver to receive a maximum return and kick start their rebuilding campaign. Grantland‘s Zach Lowe reports that Lawson is attainable with a Godfather offer, while the Denver Post says the Nuggets have turned away “several teams” who have called Denver about his availability.
Lawson is tied for the NBA lead in assists per game with Washington’s John Wall.
Denver may find that Lawson’s market is tied to Dragic. If the Suns ultimately decide to keep Dragic, that would push Lawson to the top of the line for attainable point guards at this year’s deadline, and that might put Denver in prime position to receive a “Godfather offer” in the waning minutes.
If not, and given the fact that Lawson remains under contract for two more seasons, the team may decide to table discussions until the offseason, when more teams will likely act as buyers.
Ben DuBose is a veteran sports reporter who has followed the Houston Rockets and the NBA since Hakeem Olajuwon was Akeem Olajuwon. He writes for both SheridanHoops and ClutchFans, an independent Rockets blog. You can follow him on Twitter.