With the CBA Finals about to begin on Wednesday, the championship series between the Beijing Ducks and the Liaoning Leopards has already attracted massive amounts of media attention and hyperbole.
‘War is imminent’ wrote one major Chinese website.
Players from both teams have also come forth to stoke the flames, starting with Beijing’s Di Xiaochuan, who bluntly told Sina Sports on Monday; ‘Liaoning is a very strong team. They beat us both times in the regular season but the playoffs are a different game. I believe we can beat them’. Yan Ming, one of the leaders of the Liaoning locker room, would then give an interview in which he said the Leopards team ‘had never feared playing Beijing, even in our lowest years’.
The reason why this series is such a difficult one to call is because both teams are so close in ability. The Ducks are the defending champions and brought back every member of the roster that won the ‘Mou Zouyun’ trophy last year. But as Di acknowledged in his interview with Sina Sports, Liaoning beat the Ducks in Benxi but also in Beijing.
What perhaps gives the Leopards a slight advantage is the 2-3-2 structure of the CBA Finals, which means that Liaoning will play both the first two and final two games in front of their home fans. The Ducks have the worst road record (9-10) of any playoff team this season.
What will further hamper Beijing is the ongoing fitness of starting shooting guard Sun Yue (10.5 points per game, 41.3% from 3-point range). The former Los Angeles Lakers guard has been struggling for weeks with shoulder problems, and the extent of the injury is such that Sun is scheduled to leave for the US immediately after the Finals for surgery.
But what the Ducks still have in their favor is the best overseas combo in the CBA. Stephon Marbury (16.9 ppg, 6.0 apg) has been reborn in the playoffs once again and his ability to run the pick and roll with Randolph Morris (25.6 ppg) remains a game changer. Against the Guangdong Tigers, the Ducks’ opponents in the semi-finals, Beijing’s pick and roll game was close to unstoppable and the traditionally cool headed Tigers team seemed to have no answer to Marbury. Li Gen (17.7ppg) has also emerged as a lights-out shooter for Beijing and the Chinese forward is now a critical part of the Ducks offense. When teams try to sit deep to stop either Marbury or Morris getting to the rim, often Li has been left all alone on the perimeter and is currently shooting 48% from 3-point range during the postseason.
Another big factor for the Ducks is that they already have experience in dealing with Liaoning’s best player, Lester Hudson (31.0 ppg).
The American combo guard took Xinjiang to the CBA Finals the previous year only to lose to Beijing in six games. In that series, Beijing at times deployed a full court press to tire Hudson out, staggered the defense to stop him from getting to the rim and forced the guard to settle for jump shots. Another key move was the promotion of defensive specialist Wang Xiaohui from the bench specifically to guard Hudson.
Yet Liaoning are a far more complete team than Xinjiang, and Beijing may not be able to deploy those tactics against the Leopards.
Liaoning have a strong enough local roster that they won’t have to rely on Hudson to carry them if there are open looks elsewhere on the court. If Beijing drifts toward Hudson too much, Guo Ailun (13.7ppg), dubbed ‘China’s Tony Parker’ will be quick enough to punish the Ducks in transition. Meanwhile, He Tianju (11.3ppg, 41.4% from 3pt range) is a lethal shooter of corner threes. All of this means that Beijing may well have to live with Hudson having a couple of big scoring nights against them.
If keeping control of the backcourt is going to be a taunt chess match between the two teams, what goes on in the paint will resemble a bar fight.
The heavyweight contest will of course be the showdown between Morris, Beijing’s 6”10, 270 lb American big man and Liaoning’s 7”1, 310lb center, Han Dejun (14.4ppg). Morris is a quicker, more complete two-way player and generally has the edge on Han but elsewhere, the Leopards will have opportunities to exploit Beijing’s front court rotation. Beijing’s system utilizes an enormous amount of outside shooting, even from its Chinese big men and because of this, they can sometimes get beaten up by more conventional frontcourt players.
Liaoning’s other American, Deon Thompson (19.6ppg), is a 6”8, 240 lb tank of a power forward who will be looking to exploit favorable match-ups against Beijing’s frontcourt. In a similar vein, Li Xioxu (8.8ppg) is a big man that can bang, and the thinking is that Liaoning will try to force Beijing to alter their lineups to avoid being pushed around in the paint.
Ultimately, each team has a couple of slight advantages but it may well come down to who enjoys the better series — Marbury or Hudson. When they met last season, the Americans didn’t guard each other, seemingly so that each man could save energy for offense. This may well be the case in 2015 as well because the two guards are the keys to their team’s offense and every play is going to be critical. Moreover, both the point guards will also be expected to take the final shot for their teams if and when the need occurs.
So far, Marbury has already sent a playoff game into overtime with a last second 3-pointer, while Hudson led Liaoning back from a 20-point halftime deficit in their opening semifinal game with Qingdao. Each has come through in one clutch situation but they will probably have to repeat the trick at least once in the Finals.
As defending champions, Beijing have to start as favorites but only by the slightest of margins. Liaoning are young, tough and determined, and it will take every trick in the book for the experienced Ducks’ roster to keep them down.
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Andrew Crawford is a long-time Chinese basketball writer and a former beat reporter in the Chinese Basketball Association. His twitter address is @shouldersgalore.