Where would the San Antonio Spurs be this season without Kawhi Leonard? To answer my own question, probably out of the playoff picture.
In a Western Conference where the 8th-seeded New Orleans Pelicans are seven games over .500, the Spurs are 33-16 with Leonard and just 9-9 without him. Leonard leads the team in scoring, defensive rating and minutes per game.
There’s an immense difference in Leonard’s stats in Spurs wins and losses, to the point where an off night can torpedo the team’s chances on a given night.
| Kawhi Leonard | FG % | 3 FG % | Points | Rebounds | Steal | O Rating | D Rating |
| Win | 49.3 | 36.9 | 16.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 116 | 94 |
| Loss | 38.4 | 25.5 | 13.6 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 95 | 106 |
Leonard’s net rating in wins is a plus-12 and a minus-11 in losses, a ridiculous 23-point swing per 100 possessions. Leonard’s field goal numbers are more than 10 percentage points worse overall and from three when San Antonio loses.
His physical gifts and hard work have allowed Leonard to be second in the league in defensive rating and steal percentage. And despite missing 18 games, Leonard is in discussion for the defensive player of the year — and no player in the NBA can go toe-to-toe with the league’s premier players like Leonard can. Just ask LeBron James.
“I definitely think he’s one of the top defenders in the league,” Spurs guard Danny Green told SheridanHoops. “There’s no reason why he couldn’t be or shouldn’t be Defensive Player of the Year, if not this year then in some other year. Obviously he’s gotten some injuries but when he’s locked in and focused like he has been the last two weeks or so, three weeks, there’s no better defender than him in the league.”
The Spurs were only 20-14 as the calendar turned from December to January because of an 8-10 December when Leonard missed 11 games and San Antonio’s defense suffered.
| Kawhi Leonard | Games Missed | Team Record | Points Allowed | FG D % | 3 FG D % | Leonard D Rating |
| November | 0 | 11-3 | 91.9 | 43.2 | 31.6 | 96 |
| December | 11 | 8-10 | 104.1 | 45.1 | 39.9 | 100 |
| January | 6 | 10-4 | 94.1 | 44 | 32 | 95 |
| February | 0 | 6-5 | 95.9 | 44.7 | 41 | 97 |
| March | 0 | 6-2 | 105 | 46.3 | 39 | 104 |
San Antonio allowed six more points per game than its season average in December when Leonard missed the majority of the games and registered its worst field goal defense over a full month.
“When he’s not on the floor you notice a difference,” Green said.
When Leonard returned to the Spurs’ lineup on Jan. 16, the team reeled off 10 wins in 13 games to enter the All-Star break at 34-19, and people were rightfully wondering whether this team could indeed make another title run.
San Antonio is outscoring its opponents by 7.7 points per 48 minutes with Leonard on the court, per NBA.com, 6.7 points per 48 better than when Leonard is on the bench. And despite a five-game losing streak in February, the Spurs are still a plus-6.9 per game since the All-Star break with Leonard on the floor and a plus-12.3 in the month of March.
“He does take up so much space, that’s what shrinks the floor for the offensive team,” Green said.
(MORE: Popovich blasts Spurs after loss to Knicks)
Reserve forward Matt Bonner said that when Leonard is guarding him in practice, he’s in deep trouble if he holds the basketball for more than two or three seconds.
“If I had the ball with Kawhi on defense, I wouldn’t dribble or shoot,” Bonner said. “I’d just try to pass the ball or get it out of my hands as quickly as possible.”
When opposing players try to get to the rim against Leonard, they start to figure out what Bonner is saying. When his defenders try to shoot on him, Leonard is six percentage points better than the league average on attempts from within six feet, per NBA.com, and 2.7 percentage points better than the average from within 10 feet of the basket.
“When he’s out there, his arms, his hands are big enough to affect shots or alter shots or passes, change how they run their offense,” Green said. “When he’s out there, it makes it easier for everybody to play defense.”
You’ll see Leonard on the opposition’s best player during the playoffs, potentially ranging from mobile bigs like LaMarcus Alrdidge and Dirk Nowitzki to fleet and nimble guards like James Harden and Stephen Curry.
“When he’s not out there you could tell that there’s space missing and it’s easier for guys to get into the lane or get open shots or open looks,” Green said.
Without Leonard, the Spurs might not be a playoff team this season out West. But with Leonard, it will still prove difficult for any team out there to top the defending champions in a best-of-seven series.
Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who focuses on analytics, profiles and features. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. You should follow him on Twitter.