Bernucca: Gimme Shelter: Fallout from Durant injury will reach Near and Far

The last 12 months represent by far the least amount of basketball Kevin Durant has played in his eight-year NBA career.

In a sadly ironic twist, it also represents a time when he has had more intrigue swirling around him than ever before.

In the last year, Durant has won NBA MVP and given a moving acceptance speech; quit as the new face of Team USA; created a bidding war between apparel companies in the mid nine figures; become the beacon of 2016 free agency; suffered the first serious injury of his career; compromised his previously cordial relationship with the media; and indirectly changed the vision and timetable for his team.

That is an awful lot of emotion and stress for anyone to handle. Unfortunately, it comes with the territory of being an NBA icon. Just ask Magic Johnson. Or Michael Jordan. Or LeBron James.

Durant’s iconic status means that anything he says, does, incurs or endures has an impact beyond himself, his family and his close friends. It has an impact beyond his basketball team and his management team. It impacts the entire NBA.

And the news that Durant almost certainly will not return this season due to chronic soreness in his surgically repaired broken foot has that sort of impact. Here’s a rundown of who benefits and who doesn’t from Durant’s demise.

WINNERS

Russell Westbrook: Durant’s injury ensures that his solo act continues unabated, because that is the only way the Thunder can get to the playoffs. Since Durant began sitting out for good on Feb. 21, Westbrook has a staggering eight triple-doubles in 15 games. He also is averaging 14.5 missed shots and 6.0 turnovers in those games with a usage rate that rivals toothpaste, numbers that coach Scott Brooks has to ignore because he has no other way to play. And if Westbrook can lift Oklahoma City into the postseason, he just might win MVP. That will be quite a bullet point on the resume of the NBA’s most unstoppable force who will be just 28 when his free agency arrives in 2017 – and the salary cap could be around $105 million.

Golden State Warriors: On pace for 66 wins, the Dubs weren’t exactly getting the customary first-round walkover as the West’s top seed with a looming matchup against the Thunder and their 1-2 punch of Durant and Westbrook. (Do we even have that in the right order?) Dealing with Westbrook will be no picnic, but the Thunder have no chance of upsetting the postseason applecart without Durant. His absence will allow defensively underrated Golden State to load up on Westbrook and also keep Harrison Barnes from being torched into a shell of embarrassment on isolation plays.

James Harden: Believe it or not, there are a handful of folks in the greater Oklahoma City area – they’re easy to spot because they’re wearing tin foil hats – who believe GM Sam Presti’s jettisoning of Harden three years ago has actually put a curse on the franchise. You know, like the Curse of the Bambino on the Boston Red Sox or the Curse of the Billy Goat on the Chicago Cubs. Wow. The fact that Durant’s injury-riddled season has run parallel to Harden’s MVP season only advances their bizarre theory and enlarges Harden’s aura. Using a bit more rational perspective, it is somewhat simplistic but not incorrect to look back at the Thunder’s injury misfortune over the last three years (Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Durant) and say, “Boy, James Harden would help right now.”

Washington Wizards: The Players Association’s refusal to incorporate any “smoothing” of the truckload of TV money arriving next summer – when Durant becomes a free agent – means that the salary cap could be around $90 million for the 2016-17 season. There is a school of thought that says no opposing team will have the inside track on Durant, because every team will be able to offer him a max deal starting at around $27 million. But we believe that is faulty reasoning, because if the money is the same everywhere (except Oklahoma City, which can offer an extra year and bigger raises), then Durant’s decision could be based on comfort level. And no one can deny the comforts of being at home in Washington, which has an All-Star sidekick in his prime and already was positioning its cap for the summer of 2016 before the new TV contract was announced.

NBA fans, long term: Do you remember the 2009-10 season? Do you remember LeBron James winning an MVP and pursuing his first title while answering and parrying questions about his impending free agency? Do you remember how everything he said or did was parsed and analyzed? Do you remember the trade deadline scrambling? The courtships and presentations? The Decision? The jersey burning from jilted fans and comic sans manifestos from petty owners? While at times it may have seemed childish and interminable, it could not have been better for fans of the NBA, which remained relevant on the sports landscape alongside the juggernauts of the NFL and March Madness and turned baseball into a niche sport. Durant’s impending free agency is going to do that all over again, further raising the NBA’s profile.

LOSERS

NBA fans, short-term: Those who religiously follow this great game have been somewhat shortchanged this season by the long-term injuries suffered by superstars Durant, Westbrook, Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, not to mention rookies Jabari Parker and Julius Randle. Now it seems almost impossible that Durant will play in the postseason, which shortchanges the passive fan whose interest peaks with the conclusion of the NCAA Tournament and the impending arrival of the NBA playoffs. There is no denying the intrigue of the coming postseason, primarily in the Western Conference. But the absence of the game’s second-best player does somewhat tarnish its luster.

Sam Presti: As my father likes to say, we make plans and God laughs. Long before the Thunder GM’s recent lessons in semantics regarding “procedures” and “ceasing basketball activities,” he had somewhat abandoned the long-term plan of remaining a “sustainable team” with his against-the-grain deals of draft picks and loyal soldiers for Dion Waiters and Enes Kanter, less than comfortable fits with pending eligibility for contract extensions. As Zach Lowe noted, those are undeniably win-now moves driven by Durant’s “Belle of the Ball” status a scant 15 months away. Undermined by injuries, Presti’s best shot now at Durant spending his prime in a fly-over state is winning a championship in 2016, which has to be accomplished alongside speculation that would make the National Enquirer blush.

Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers own the Thunder’s first-round pick in this June’s draft. But the pick has 1-18 protection, and the Thunder are currently tied for 18th in the overall standings with Washington. Over the last 12 games of the season, could the Thunder surpass the Wizards and finish 12th (or better), sending the pick to the Sixers? Given Washington’s erratic play since the new year, anything’s possible. But keep in mind these two factors: The Thunder finish primarily against the West, while the bulk of the Wizards’ slate is against the East. And for all of Westbrook’s supernova brilliance, Oklahoma City is just 5-8 against teams above .500 when playing without Durant.

Utah Jazz: The Jazz own the Thunder’s 2017 first-round pick, which has lottery protection. But the clock doesn’t even start on that pick until the Thunder convey a first-round pick to Philadelphia. In other words, if the Thunder don’t have to give the Sixers a first-round pick until 2016, then the earliest the Jazz can receive a first-round pick from the Thunder is 2018. So if Oklahoma City finishes 18th or worse this season, it delays the rebuilding plans of both Philadelphia and Utah.

TRIVIA: Kyle Korver is on pace to win his second straight 3-point percentage title. Who is the only player to top that category in consecutive years? Answer below.

THE END OF CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT: Dallas Mavericks forward Amar’e Stoudemire received two technical fouls, an ejection and a $15,000 fine for his reaction to an offensive foul call by Scott Foster, one of the NBA’s best referees who has worked 12 NBA Finals games but clearly was duped by a flop by Memphis Grizzlies guard Tony Allen.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: New Sacramento Kings vice president of operations Vlade Divac, asked about former rival and Kings minority owner Shaquille O’Neal technically being his boss:

“He always was my boss.”

TANKS A LOT!: Did the Denver Nuggets dabble in some tanking? They were 20-39 when they fired Brian Shaw and replaced him with assistant Melvin Hunt, who immediately guided the club to six wins in its next eight games, including consecutive victories over conference leaders Atlanta and Golden State. Denver then sat rotation players Wilson Chandler, Randy Foye and Darrell Arthur at New Orleans but still managed a double-overtime win. The following night at Memphis, the Nuggets sat Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari and got the desired result – a loss. Hunt’s explanation sounded like he was selling bridges. “We’re in a very unique situation here, having come off what we did last year with so many injuries,” he said. “We had players with ACL injuries; our owner’s dog had an ACL injury. We had a little bit of everything going on. We have to be very, very careful. We have to be really wise, given the situation that we are in.”

LINE OF THE WEEK: James Harden, Houston vs. Denver, March 19: 40 minutes, 12-17 FGs, 4-12 3-pointers, 22-25 FTs, 10 rebounds, four assists, one steal, four turnovers, 50 points in a 118-108 win. It was a career high for Harden, who had 11 career 40-point games, the most of any active player who had yet to score 50. His performance included a league season high in free throws made and came in front of Hakeem Olajuwon, who was the last member of the Rockets to score 50 on Jan. 18, 1996.

LINE OF THE WEAK: Dante Exum, Utah at Golden State, March 21: 18 minutes, 0-1 FG, 0-1 3-pointers, 0-0 FTs, zero rebounds, one assist, zero blocks, one steal, three fouls, three turnovers, zero points in a 106-91 loss. This capped a three-game stretch covering 60 minutes in which Exum did not score, shooting 0-of-12 with seven fouls and seven turnovers. So, no, we’re not being too harsh on the teenager from Australia.

TRILLION WATCH: The heroes of zeros are certainly making up for lost time lately. Three crashed the season leaderboard this week as Pistons center Joel Anthony registered a 9 trillion Tuesday at Memphis, Hawks forward Elton Brand posted a 6 trillion Wednesday at Golden State and Kings center Ryan Hollins had a 5 trillion Sunday vs. Washington. Anthony’s lack of effort forged a tie for the season lead with Lakers guard Xavier Henry, who had held the top spot by himself since Nov. 1. Honorable mention to Warriors center Festus Ezeli, who had a 4 trillion Saturday vs. Utah.

GAME OF THE WEEK: San Antonio at Dallas, March 24. The longtime rivals are jockeying for playoff position and could climb as high as third in the West with a hot streak – or sink as low as eighth with a slump. They have split their first two meetings and play again three days later in San Antonio. But the sixth-seeded Spurs host eighth-seeded Oklahoma City in between, while the seventh-seeded Mavericks have two days off.

GAME OF THE WEAK: Philadelphia at Denver, March 25. The 76ers are the true masters of tanking; the Nuggets are mere novices. But don’t kid yourself. Neither organization is very interested in winning games right now.

TWO MINUTES: If the Heat make the playoffs – and don’t look now, but they are just one game in the loss column behind the sixth-place Bucks with a visit to Milwaukee on Tuesday – it will be on the shoulders of Dwyane Wade, who has shown that he is not quite done as a superstar. Against a tough schedule, Miami is 7-4 in March, and Wade is averaging 25.4 points and 5.0 assists while shooting 50.5 percent from the field, missing one of the losses with a hip injury. He strung together seven games of at least 25 points, his longest stretch since December 2010. “Dwyane Wade was the first to do what (James) Harden is doing now,” Nuggets coach Melvin Hunt said. “Harden is the latest version of Dwyane Wade.” … The Warriors have 13 total losses and 14 wins by 20-plus points. … The Grizzlies were just 8-7 since the All-Star break, prompting coach Dave Joerger to wonder whether complacency had set in with his team. So he did something about it, pulling midseason acquisition Jeff Green from the starting lineup for Tony Allen for Friday’s game at Dallas. The following night vs. Portland, both Green and Allen started as Courtney Lee said out with a hand injury. Memphis won both games as Allen averaged 11.5 points and 8.0 rebounds and Green averaged 19.0 points and 6.0 boards. It will be interesting to see how the rotation is handled once Lee is healthy again, but it looks like Allen is a starter again, as he was before Green’s arrival. … Since offensive rebounds first were tracked in 1973, only Moses Malone has had more offensive rebounds in a game than the 18 Bucks center Zaza Pachulia grabbed in Friday’s triple-overtime loss at Brooklyn, according to Elias. Malone had 19 offensive boards in a game in 1978-79 and a record 21 in 1981-82, both while with Houston. He won the MVP both seasons. … Coming out of the All-Star break, the Raptors blasted the Hawks to move to 37-17 and within five games of the top spot in the East. Since then, Toronto is 5-11 and is a dogfight with Chicago and Washington to stay in the top of the bracket and avoid starting the playoffs on the road. Some of the struggles can be tied to All-Star guard Kyle Lowry’s nagging injuries and absence – the Raptors are 2-3 without him – but of greater issue is Toronto’s defense, which has been non-existent. Since the win over the Hawks, the Raptors have allowed an average of 104.1 points per game. Their season marks of 101.2 points allowed and .461 opponents’ shooting are the lowest of any team sitting in a playoff spot. “We need to quit worrying about the playoffs and start worrying about the next game and just take it game by game,” Lowry said. … After the Pelicans hung on for a one-point victory over the Bucks on Monday, Anthony Davis said, “It felt like a playoff game.” No disrespect to the MVP candidate, but how would he know?

Trivia Answer: Jason Kapono with Miami in 2007 and Toronto in 2008. … Happy 60th Birthday, Moses Malone. … Allen Iverson is aware that you actually have to come to the office if you have a front office job, right?

Chris Bernucca is the managing editor of SheridanHoops.com. His columns appear Monday during the season. You can follow him on Twitter. LINK https://twitter.com/ChrisBernucca