Fantasy Spin March 24, 2015

Another six-game NBA slate gets under way at 7:30 ET, with the Westbrook Decision looming large in DFS contests. Russell Westbrook $13200 has been cranking out triple-doubles and averaging 65.3 FPTS over his last ten. It’s also been an incredibly consistent streak — only the Clippers kept him from dominating.

Enes Kanter $7200 showed no ill effects from an ankle injury (27 PTS, 12 REB) and the playoff-bound Thunder should run up the score against the visiting Lakers. However, using Westbrook does leave you short-handed at other positions in daily contests. In the ever-changing L.A. rotation, Jeremy Lin $4800 is going to start and Jordan Clarkson $5100 will play SG, with Wayne Ellington $4200 demoted to the second unit. For some reason, I’m thinking about the deck chairs on the Titanic.

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Nobody cares about the 76ers and Kings in real life, except their long-suffering fans. DeMarcus Cousins $9600 is extremely relevant in both traditional and daily fantasy. He was in foul trouble on Sunday and could put up video-game numbers again tonight, like the 39 points and 24 boards in the last meeting between these teams, just 11 days ago. Rudy Gay $7700 carried Sacramento while Boogie was out with a calf injury and is always dangerous; Omri Casspi $3600 is decent value if he continues to start at SF and Ben McLemore $3600 scored 17 on Sunday. Philly is just playing out the string and there’s nobody to recommend with confidence. Although Nerlens Noel $7800 and Robert Covington $4500 sparked a second-half comeback win at the Wells Fargo Center, a repeat on the road seems unlikely.

Can you win using both WB and DMC? That leaves $27200 for six roster spots. A third star in the $7500-8000 range and you’re looking for five guys at $4000 or less. It’s certainly possible; we’re just not sure it’s the best strategy.

It’s a shame if LaMarcus Aldridge $8800 (finger) and Nicolas Batum $6500 (back) can’t suit up against the visiting Warriors. Damian Lillard $7600 might have to be a one-man team, with whatever help Arron Afflalo $4300 and Robin Lopez $4500 can provide. Dorell Wright $3500 is the wild card assuming he starts, with C.J. McCollum $3500 and Joel Freeland $3000 likely to get extra minutes off the bench. Golden State enjoyed a ridiculously easy win at home last night, blowing it open with a 29-8 third quarter. Stephen Curry $9600 had 24 points in 28 minutes and Andrew Bogut $4200 was +32 in only 23 minutes. The downside is the possibility of garbage time; Steve Kerr would love to give Klay Thompson $7000 and Draymond Green $7500 more rest and will empty his bench again if the score permits.

Miami is just 1.5 games back of plummeting Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference playoff “race” and sixth seed would be a far better first-round matchup than seventh. The Heat had won four of five before OKC shut them down on Sunday. Dwyane Wade $7900, Goran Dragic $7000 and Hassan Whiteside $7500 all deserve serious consideration. The Bucks have dropped six straight and are 3-13 over the last month. It’s not all the fault of Michael Carter-Williams $6800, as they are very thin on the bench because of injuries. Zaza Pachulia $5000 is hardly a dominant force, but he does have enough range to compete with Whiteside.

Dallas and San Antonio appear to be heading in opposite directions, as the Spurs just beat Atlanta on the road while the Mavs have lost their last two. It’s difficult to single out any players because both teams have a variety of scorers and go with the hot hands. Tiago Splitter $4300 has been very sharp, though Tyson Chandler $5500 is not an easy matchup. My hunch-o-meter is pointing straight at Tim Duncan $6900, who heats up every spring, and Kawhi Leonard $8100 is a big-game player.

Call it the Battle of the 401 — the Southern Ontario highway linking Toronto and Detroit. Kyle Lowry $7200 (back) is questionable despite making it through practice yesterday; he’d give the Raptors a better matchup with the suddenly dynamic Reggie Jackson $7500. Greg Monroe $7500 (knee) might also return. Andre Drummond $8400 is fresh of an 18-point, 22-rebound, 4-block night and along with Jackson, has helped the Pistons win three of four. Motivation is on the visitors’ side, as they cling to third seed in the East in a virtual tie with the Bulls. DeMar DeRozan $7700 is back in all-star form and Jonas Valanciunas $5600 just needs minutes.

For argument’s sake, let’s substitute Lillard for Westbrook and see how much that $5600 savings improves our sample lineup (above left.) Basically, we get to upgrade from Casspi, Diaw and McCollum to Barnes, Duncan and Lin. The second trio scored 111.9 FPTS in their last game, the first group 74.5 — unless you think Russ is going to go 49-15-10 (which he actually did vs. Philly three weeks ago) the more balanced lineup has greater potential.

DFS salaries are nothing like an over/under or point spread line, designed to even out wagering. DraftKings makes money by filling those big guaranteed tournaments; they pay out exactly the same amount no matter which teams win or which players produce the most points. If Westbrook cost $10000, he’d be owned on over 90% of teams and the game wouldn’t be as challenging. His huge salary makes tonight’s puzzle far more interesting, whichever way you decide.

Pos	Premium	Midrange	Bargain
PG	R. Westbrook $13200	Damian Lillard $7600	Jeremy Lin $4800
SG	Dwyane Wade $7900	DeMar DeRozan $7700	Ben McLemore $3600
SF	Kawhi Leonard $8100	Rudy Gay $7700	Dorell Wright $3500
PF	Nerlens Noel $7800	Tim Duncan $6900	Boris Diaw $3800
C	D. Cousins $9600	Enes Kanter $7200	Zaza Pachulia $5000