The standings play a large part in our handicapping tonight. Miami’s loss at home (and their injury plague) leaves the other three contenders for the final two playoff Eastern Conference spots in much better shape.
In the West, it’s a dead-heat between the Thunder and Pelicans (who own the tiebreaker) with four games to play. Russell Westbrook $11600 will be absolutely unstoppable against what’s left of the Kings. Anthony Davis $11000 and his mates are a huge favorite against the eliminated Suns, but that game may not be high-scoring and if Phoenix just goes through the motions, the big fella could get some needed rest in the fourth quarter.
There’s plenty at stake in Houston, where the sizzling Spurs can leapfrog the Rockets with another victory in this home-and-home. James Harden $10800 will be keen to improve on his 22 points in Wednesday’s loss, and we’ll see the playoff version of Dwight Howard $6600 even if his minutes are limited. Kawhi Leonard $8000, Tony Parker $5300 and Tim Duncan $6200 are big-game studs at attractive salaries.
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Be extremely careful about using any Cavaliers in their home-and-home with Boston tonight and Sunday. With the #2 seed guaranteed, Cleveland will not only be resting its stars, they could actually “choose” to meet the easy-out Celtics in the first round by losing twice. LeBron James $10100 is almost certain to get a night off, possibly two.
The Nets are determined to make it, with their only two losses in the last nine games coming against Atlanta. Brook Lopez $8400, Deron Williams $7000, Thaddeus Young $6100 and Joe Johnson $5900 will treat this like a playoff game; Bojan Bogdanovic $3600 is a potential bargain off the bench. There’s some incentive for the Wizards, who still have a shot at finishing fourth, but Brooklyn is in survival mode.
Indiana is also in the postseason hunt, though the inconsistent Roy Hibbert $4900 really needs to step up against Andre Drummond $8500 in a must-win on the road. George Hill $7200 is the main man for the Pacers, and while Paul George $5000 is still on a minutes limit and not worth starting in DFS yet, he’s a nice weapon off the bench.
Meaningless games with potentially high scores include Toronto in Orlando, Dallas at Denver and Minnesota visiting the Lakers. Games to ignore entirely? Hornets at Hawks, Bucks at Knicks and Grizzlies at Jazz.
Putting this all together is tricky. Westbrook is a must-start; he could score 50 with DeMarcus Cousins (foot) out and Rudy Gay (concussion) questionable. Ultra-cheap Kings Derrick Williams $3500 and Jason Thompson $3900 make the Short List, with Omri Casspi $4800 also playable in what could be a defense-free game.
As tempting as it is to choose between Harden and Davis for a second superstar, I’m leaning more toward balance. There are several possible bargains if you prefer a more extreme stars-and-scrubs approach; Gerald Green $4000 has been turned loose as the remainder of the season is garbage time for Phoenix. Dwight Buycks $3300 is trying to impress the Lakers on a 10-day contract, and they are giving him a chance.
There are literally millions of possible 8-man combinations tonight. My sample lineup (above left) is quite likely to change before the 7:00 Eastern deadline, because there’s so much uncertainty at this time of year and breaking news about players resting can alter the landscape. Enter early, before the most lucrative contests fill, then adjust accordingly.
| Pos | Premium | Midrange | Bargain |
| PG | R. Westbrook $11600 | Tony Parker $5300 | Dwight Buycks $3300 |
| SG | James Harden $10800 | Victor Oladipo $7200 | Gerald Green $4000 |
| SF | Kawhi Leonard $8000 | Andrew Wiggins $6800 | Derrick Williams $3500 |
| PF | Anthony Davis $11000 | Thaddeus Young $6100 | Jason Thompson $3900 |
| C | Brook Lopez $8400 | Nikola Vucevic $7700 | Aron Baynes $3400 |
The Fantasy Spin features DFS advice every day of the NBA season. Follow Kent Williams @SheridanFantasy for updates.
Kent, wanted to thank you for your consistently excellent analysis this year; a must read for any DFS player. Good luck with your picks tonight!