The NBA regular season ends tomorrow, and as of now — even with most teams having played 81 of their 82 games — not a single first-round matchup is locked in. It’s an incredibly rare situation that promises to bring loads of drama both Tuesday night and especially Wednesday night, as the 2014-15 slate comes to a close.
In the West, the complex playoff picture was reasonably summed up in one tweet on Tuesday morning from San Antonio’s star guard Manu Ginobili:
So, after 81 games looks like if… A- We win, we’ll get 2nd seed. B- We lose, we’ll get 6th seed. Smh. Unbelievable! #westernconference
— Manu Ginobili (@manuginobili) April 14, 2015
What we know is that the Warriors (66-15) are the No. 1 seed, the Blazers (51-30) will be the No. 4 seed due to winning the Northwest Division (but without home-court advantage), and the Mavs (49-32) are locked into the No. 7 spot. Those three teams are simply awaiting their opponents.
For everyone else in the mix, it’s utter chaos.
Near the top of the standings, four teams — the Spurs (55-26), Clippers (55-26), Rockets (55-26),and Grizzlies (54-27) — all have nearly identical records as they enter their final games. At the moment, the teams would slot in neatly in that order. The Spurs would have the tiebreaker for the Southwest Division title over Houston by virtue of a 3-1 advantage in head-to-head matchups. Then, as the Southwest winner, San Antonio would trump the Clippers, who didn’t win their division.
If all teams win their final games, it would lead to Spurs/Mavs as the 2/7 matchup, Clippers/Grizzlies as the 3/6, and Blazers/Rockets as the 4/5 (but with Houston having home court due to overall record).
There’s one big catch, though. The Spurs’ finale, of course, is in New Orleans — which is in a fight of its own at the bottom of the table. The Pelicans (44-37) are currently tied with the Thunder (44-37) for the West’s final playoff spot, and New Orleans holds the tiebreaker. But with Oklahoma City’s finale against the struggling Timberwolves, the Pelicans are likely going to be required to win themselves to make the postseason — and that means knocking off the red-hot Spurs, who have now won 11 straight games.
Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm and CBS Sports has a handy flowchart with all the possible outcomes. But let’s consider the most likely scenario, which is that the Rockets, Clippers, Grizzlies and Thunder knock off the Jazz, Suns, Pacers and Wolves, respectively, in their finales. All are favored for good reason.
If that happens, the most probable swing game appears to be that tasty Spurs/Pelicans matchup. If the Spurs win, that puts the Thunder into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed vs. No. 1 Golden State and the Spurs as the No. 2 seed vs. No. 7 Dallas.
On the other hand, what if Anthony Davis and the Pelicans ride what’s certain to be a raucous home crowd to a big win and a playoff berth? That would move the Rockets all the way up to No. 2 (as the Southwest winner, they’d have the tiebreaker over the Clippers) and it would send the Spurs tumbling down to No. 6, since they’d lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Grizzlies.
In short, the team with the most to gain — or lose — is the Spurs. Win, and they’re the No. 2 seed and have home court for at least the first two rounds of the playoffs. They also wouldn’t have to play the top-seeded Warriors until the Western Conference Finals. Lose, and they’re very possibly the No. 5 seed or even the No. 6 seed (if Memphis also wins), without home-court advantage in any round.
On the whole, it feels like the NBA stumbled into its own version of “March Madness”, with numerous winner-take-all scenarios set to play out over the next two days. Buckle up!
EAST BATTLES LOOK A BIT SIMPLER
The Eastern Conference isn’t quite as challenging, with the Hawks and Cavaliers locked as the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively, and the Wizards and Bucks are each at No. 5 and No. 6.
And unlike the West, the No. 5 Wizards (46-34) cannot have home-court advantage.
There are two battles to focus on. Right now, the Bulls (49-32) are a half-game up on Toronto for the No. 3 seed and the right to play Milwaukee, but the Raptors (48-32) still control their own destiny. As a division winner, if Toronto ends up tied with a non-division winner in Chicago, the Raptors would have the tiebreaker and push the Bulls to the No. 4 spot, where they’d face off with the Wizards (who, by the way, knocked the Bulls out in last year’s first round).
It won’t come easily for Toronto, though. The finale at home against Charlotte is manageable, but Tuesday’s game at the surging Celtics (38-42) is another story. Boston has now won 7 of 10, and they’re involved in a battle of their own at the bottom of the Eastern table.
The Nets’ loss on Monday clinched a playoff berth for Brad Stevens and his Celtics, but whether they’re the No. 7 or No. 8 seed remains to be seen. If the Celtics win one more game (Toronto on Tuesday, at Milwaukee on Wednesday) or if the Pacers (37-43) lose a game (home vs. Washington on Tuesday, at Memphis on Wednesday), the Celtics are the No. 7 seed. But if the Celtics lose out and the Pacers win out, the Pacers would be the No. 7 and the Celtics the No. 8.
The bigger question is whether Boston actually wants to move up in the standings, since “winning” the No. 7 spot means a matchup with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and the star-studded Cavaliers. Instead, falling to the lower No. 8 spot would seem to offer greater upset potential, courtesy of a first-round matchup with the Hawks — who have been quite inconsistent of late. After all, despite playing most of their starters 30+ minutes, Atlanta lost at home to the woeful Knicks on Monday night.
So if it’s not the Celtics at No. 8, who is? The aforementioned Pacers are certainly in the driver’s seat, since them going 2-0 would assure them the final playoff berth. But they’ll be decided underdogs in their season finale in Memphis, which keeps two other teams realistically in play.
If the Pacers lose a game and the Nets (37-44) win their last game at home vs. Orlando — and they’ll be heavily favored — Brooklyn would earn the final seed. But if the Pacers lose out and the Nets also somehow lose, then the Heat (36-45) — who beat Brooklyn all four times this season — would only need to defeat Philadelphia on Wednesday in their finale and they would somehow sneak in.
Confused? We don’t blame you. Again, Matt Moore has a lovely East flowchart, as well.
OTHER NEWS FROM AROUND THE LEAGUE
Injured Atlanta guard Thabo Sefalosha issued a statement Tuesday in which he explicitly holds the New York Police Department responsible for the broken leg he suffered upon his recent arrest.
Most of his statement is generic, but the final sentence is key:
The following is a statement from @ThaboSefolosha: pic.twitter.com/BmF8XSohsh — Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) April 14, 2015
Sefalosha, of course, is ruled out for the remainder of Atlanta’s season, including the playoffs. The NBA’s players union has already expressed displeasure with the NYPD’s treatment of Sefolosha, and the TMZ reports that the NYPD is conducting an internal affairs investigation into the officers’ actions.
For a sixth consecutive year, LeBron James is at the top of the NBA’s list for its most popular jerseys.
The rankings, based on overall retail sales from NBAStore.com since the beginning of the 2014-15 season, are as follows:
Kobe Bryant still has the 3rd most popular jersey in the NBA. pic.twitter.com/91nxVtZhvm
— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) April 14, 2015
The most interesting takeaway? Despite woeful seasons, both the Lakers (21-60) and Knicks (17-64) remain hot-ticket items. They rank fourth and seventh overall, respectively, in team sales, with Kobe Bryant still holding the third-highest-selling jersey and Carmelo Anthony checking in at No. 8. In other words, big markets still matter, even with the proliferation of TV options for smaller-market clubs.
On the other side, James Harden and Russell Westbrook feel underrepresented. Though both are finishing up MVP-level campaigns, they’re nowhere near the top of the jersey popularity list. Harden, in fact, isn’t even on it — while Westbrook is far down at No. 12, eight spots below his teammate Kevin Durant (No. 4). Durant, of course, has only played 27 games this season and is ruled out for the duration of the season, even if the Thunder make the playoffs.
Ben DuBose is a veteran sports reporter who has followed the Houston Rockets and the NBA since Hakeem Olajuwon was Akeem Olajuwon. He writes for both SheridanHoops and ClutchFans, an independent Rockets blog. You can follow him on Twitter.