Fantasy Spin April 17, 2015

At last, real NBA basketball. After weeks of uncertainty in daily fantasy — who would start, who would rest, which teams cared — we have a quadruple-header with predictable rotations and maximum effort. The first postseason contests at DraftKings close at 12:30 on Saturday afternoon. They are open for entries now, and you can always adjust your lineups until each player’s game begins.

All of the home teams are favored for good reason. While it may be useful to consider likely series outcomes, in daily action we rarely look that far ahead. If you correctly predict a Game 1 upset and back the right guys, it will pay off handsomely.

DK will match your first deposit 100% (up to $600) with bonus funds that convert to cash, plus you get a FREE entry in the $65K Sharpshooter — the top score earns $5,000 and 5,150 of 24,916 teams will cash. Or redeem your FREE entry in the $100K Playoff Special, normally a $20 buy-in. That contest has 1,150 cash prizes ($10,000 for first) and a maximum of 5,725 teams.

Toronto hosts Washington in the opener. No individual matchup is more critical than John Wall $8600 vs. Kyle Lowry $7500. They haven’t met since Feb. 11 and the Raptors swept all three meetings this season. DeMar DeRozan $7800 vs. Bradley Beal $6500 and Jonas Valanciunas $5600 vs. Marcin Gortat $6500 are also significant decisions for daily lineups. Everyone is affordable if you make the correct choice. Being a Toronto native, I may not be the most objective about this series; call me more hopeful than confident.

Both teams are a somewhat weak at SF and PF, with a number of interchangeable players. Paul Pierce $4500, wearing a Nets uniform when he blocked Lowry’s shot to decide a seven-game set in last year’s playoffs, has provided some bulletin-board inspiration and will be booed every time he touches the ball. The Truth can back up his trash talk and is likely to be prominent.

There’s no way the Pelicans will defeat the top-seeded Warriors. Anthony Davis $11000 is a superstar, but he’ll be hounded by Draymond Green $7200, a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. New Orleans is exhausted from several must-win games, while Stephen Curry $10100 and Klay Thompson $7300 are healthy and well-rested. The Splash Brothers vs. Jrue Holiday $5900 and Eric Gordon $4700 is no contest. Though he’s still PG-eligible at DK, Tyreke Evans $7700 is playing SF now and matches up well against Harrison Barnes $4700. At C, Andrew Bogut $5000 can handle Omer Asik $4300, the Golden State bench is superior and Steve Kerr is a great coach.

Kudos to Jason Kidd and his young Bucks for finishing sixth. I don’t see how they can win even one game against Chicago, certainly not the opener. Even if the score is low, Jimmy Butler $7400 and Pau Gasol $8400 are excellent DFS plays. The only Milwaukee player to make my Short List (below) is O.J. Mayo $4000, who will come off the bench shooting in a futile attempt to catch up. You don’t often see garbage time in the playoffs, but the Bulls may be able to get some late rest for Derrick Rose $6600 and Joakim Noah $6000, relying on Aaron Brooks $5000 and Nikola Mirotic $5900 to protect an anticipated big lead.

Obviously, Dallas can’t stop James Harden $10500 but the Mavericks will try to win the battle at other positions. Dwight Howard $6800 vs. Tyson Chandler $6000 is one of the keys to a very interesting (and high-scoring) series. The youth and athleticism of Terrence Jones $5900 may not be a match for the experience of Dirk Nowitzki $6700, and Rajon Rondo $6500 is clearly the best PG, because Houston doesn’t have one. SG-eligible Jason Terry $3200 is at least worth considering at that salary.

Remember DraftStreet? It’s defunct, having been acquired by DraftKings, but those live drafts, where each player was owned by only one team, were fun. I still imagine that format to help construct my lineups. Curry would be an easy #1 selection. Second is a tossup between Harden and Davis. My fourth and fifth choices are Gasol and Butler. Then it’s a photo-finish between Wall, Lowry and Evans.

SF is by far the weakest position because Chandler Parsons $6900 (knee) is not 100%, Josh Smith $6400 is unpredictable and Giannis Antetokounmpo $6400 lacks experience. Center is also a tossup where you might choose to save money. Among G, F and Util, a second top PG makes the most sense. My sample lineup (above left) rolls the dice on Pierce and Bogut, using the savings on Lowry.

One way or another, you’ll need to guess right on one or two ultra-cheap players in order to afford the stars. Dallas didn’t acquire Amar’e Stoudemire $3600 for the regular season and if Toronto goes small as expected, Terrence Ross $3200 is another possible bargain.

Pos	Premium	Midrange	Bargain
PG	Stephen Curry $10100	Kyle Lowry $7500	Aaron Brooks $5000
SG	James Harden $10500	Jimmy Butler $7400	O.J. Mayo $4000
SF	Josh Smith $6400	Paul Pierce $4500	Terrence Ross $3200
PF	Anthony Davis $11000	Pau Gasol $8400	A. Stoudemire $3600
C	Dwight Howard $6800	Tyson Chandler $6000	Andrew Bogut $5000