So far, there have been no shocking upsets in the NBA playoffs. The only home team that lost was Toronto, in overtime. That trend should continue tonight.
In daily fantasy, we don’t care about point spreads, it’s all about individual performances. Over/Under lines matter only as a handy tool to compare the overall scoring potential for teams. We don’t even care who wins. That said, accurate predictions on a team-wide level lead to better player valuations.
Compared to the volatility of the regular season, playoff basketball produces more consistent results. Foul trouble, injury or illness can still mess up a good lineup, but you can be sure of the rotations and effort level. Very little should change from Game 1 to Game 2. The experienced, efficient Bulls can cope with whatever Milwaukee throws at them. Once again, the brilliance of Anthony Davis $10900 is unlikely to overcome the talent, depth and resilience of the Warriors.
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The Unibrow really is a one-man show, as the Pelicans are wounded and exhausted. Tyreke Evans $7200 (knee) is not himself, leaving Eric Gordon $5100 and Quincy Pondexter $4800 as the second and third options. Jrue Holiday $5600 (leg) is far from 100% and Ryan Anderson $3800 is in a shooting slump, so Norris Cole $4400 may be the best investment off the bench.
As expected, Andrew Bogut $6300 dominated Omer Asik $4100 in the opener, while the great Stephen Curry $10300 more than earned his salary with 34 points and 53 FPTS. Klay Thompson $7500 and Draymond Green $7700 are solid plays; stacking them with Harrison Barnes $4700 and Andre Iguodala $3900 is very tempting. All six logged 30+ minutes on Saturday.
In the 8:00 game, Michael Carter-Williams $6800 is no match for Derrick Rose $6700 and it’s even more lopsided in the paint. Pau Gasol $8700 had a rare off-night shooting (5-for-17) but 13 REB, 4 AST, 3 BLK was typical of what to expect. If you are using only one player from this game, Jimmy Butler $7400 should be Chicago’s minutes leader. Taj Gibson $4600 and Aaron Brooks $4300 are the bench players to consider. However, Gibson is a bit banged up (shoulder, knee) and if he’s rested, Nikola Mirotic $4000 is an extremely capable replacement. The Bucks’ second unit might be better value than their starters — John Henson $3500 and Jerryd Bayless $3100 were effective in defeat.
Once you commit to Curry and Davis, you have to be economical everywhere else. Bogut, the most expensive C, is probably worth it. SF is extremely weak; too bad Khris Middleton $5700 isn’t eligible there. The Greek Freak is top-salaried, but I’m leaning to Barnes, Pondexter or Iguodala. It’s a tossup between Butler and Klay at SG, with Middleton a third choice and no ultra-cheap options.
Even with only two games to choose from, many possible lineup combinations make sense. It’s easy enough to pick the stars, much more difficult to get production from your scrubs. Betting against Curry or Davis (or both) with a more balanced lineup would pay off handsomely if it works. See you on the leaderboard.
| Pos | Premium | Midrange | Bargain |
| PG | Stephen Curry $10300 | Derrick Rose $6700 | Jerryd Bayless $3100 |
| SG | Jimmy Butler $7400 | Klay Thompson $7500 | Eric Gordon $5100 |
| SF | G. Antetokounmpo $6200 | Harrison Barnes $4700 | Andre Iguodala $3900 |
| PF | Anthony Davis $10900 | Pau Gasol $8700 | John Henson $3500 |
| C | Andrew Bogut $6300 | Joakim Noah $5800 | Omer Asik $4100 |
The Fantasy Spin features DFS advice every day of the NBA season. Follow Kent Williams @SheridanFantasy for updates.