Fantasy Spin April 21, 2015

Except for one minor upset (a five-seed edging a four-seed in overtime) home teams are undefeated in the first round of the NBA playoffs and the stars are shining.

As expected, the Warriors and Bulls took 2-0 series leads last night, with Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis and Stephen Curry among the best players to own in daily fantasy. If you’re new to DFS but love pro basketball, this is a great time to get in the game. Rotations are predictable, everyone is trying hard and compared to the regular season, there are fewer surprises.

DraftKings matches your first deposit 100% (up to $600) with bonus funds that convert to cash, plus you get a FREE entry in the $80K Sharpshooter at 3:00 — the top score earns $5,000 and 6,155 of 30,561 teams will get paid. Or redeem your FREE entry in the $100K Crossover, normally a $27 buy-in. That contest has 877 prizes ($10,000 for first) and a maximum of only 4,225 teams.

Round Two of Dallas at Houston promises more of the same. James Harden $10500 scored “only” 24 points in the first meeting, but dished out 11 assists, Trevor Ariza $6200 was terrific at both ends and Jason Terry $3700 drained four 3-pointers. Dwight Howard $7000 might be even better tonight — if he can stay out of foul trouble. Terrence Jones $5800 also had a great game. As if the starters weren’t dangerous enough, Corey Brewer $3900 and Josh Smith $6100 come off the bench with energy. Stacking all seven Rockets is not the worst strategy. Dirk Nowitzki $6900 and Tyson Chandler $6600 were the best Mavericks; others will need to improve. Chandler Parsons $5900 (knee) is questionable; if he can’t go, Richard Jefferson $3000 might start and Al-Farouq Aminu $3900 would get extra run. Devin Harris $3000 (toe) is not 100%, so J.J. Barea $3100 might be busy.

The Cavaliers will continue to dismantle the Celtics. Dollar for dollar, Kyrie Irving $7900 and Kevin Love $7400 had slightly better numbers than LeBron James $10600 in Game 1, but all three will continue to produce. Tristan Thompson $4400 and Iman Shumpert $3700 logged more minutes off the bench than starters Timofey Mozgov $5000 and J.R. Smith $5100. Just as we thought, Isaiah Thomas $6700 led Boston with 22 points; his ten assists and five rebounds were a pleasant surprise. His teammates are overmatched. Kelly Olynyk $4000 is another reserve who might be trying to play catch-up in the second half.

It’s already a must-win for my Raptors. I touted Paul Pierce $5200, who backed up his trash talk with 20 points on Saturday, but did not expect both Kyle Lowry $7500 and John Wall $8600 to disappoint their fantasy owners. Both teams shot less than 40% and the score was 82-all in regulation. DeMar DeRozan $7800 and Bradley Beal $6500 were volume shooters, and while their percentages might improve, there’s no reason to expect a high score tonight. Nene Hilario $4500 double-doubled (12 & 13) in just 21 minutes, veteran Drew Gooden $3600 looked good off the bench and Otto Porter $3200 got extra run when the Wizards went small. Toronto needs Amir Johnson $4400 to keep playing well and for one more big man like Patrick Patterson $3600 to step up. Marcin Gortat $6000 and Jonas Valanciunas $5400 were not huge factors in the opener. While rabidly cheering, I’ll be ignoring this one for DFS purposes.

If you use both Harden and James, it’s necessary to surround them with six value picks. Guessing that LeBron will continue to defer to teammates, I’m saving $4200 by using Ariza at SF in today’s sample lineup and applying that to other positions. There’s no guaranteed path to profits. It’s an art, it’s a science and a bit of luck never hurts.

Pos	Premium	Midrange	Bargain
PG	Kyrie Irving $7900	Isaiah Thomas $6700	J.J. Barea $3100
SG	James Harden $10500	DeMar DeRozan $7800	Jason Terry $3700
SF	LeBron James $10600	Trevor Ariza $6200	Paul Pierce $5200
PF	Kevin Love $7400	Terrence Jones $5800	Amir Johnson $4400
C	Dwight Howard $7000	Tyson Chandler $6600	Kelly Olynyk $4000