Fantasy Spin April 23, 2015

The venues change for Game 3 tonight but that may not alter the course of three NBA first-round series. Cleveland, Chicago and Golden State are all up 2-0 with a chance to take complete control. Home underdogs Boston, Milwaukee and New Orleans are in desperate need of a win. In DFS, we don’t really care which teams prevail; I generally root for overtime.

One player is crucial to the Pelicans’ hopes. Anthony Davis $10900 has been brilliant in defeat and although it’s hard to imagine him playing much better, he still needs his teammates. There are physical reasons for Jrue Holiday $5100 (leg) and Tyreke Evans $7400 (knee) to be less than their best, so Eric Gordon $5200 and Omer Asik $4300 simply must improve. Quincy Pondexter $5300, sharp in Game 1, missed seven of eight shots on Monday.

DraftKings matches your first deposit 100% (up to $600) with bonus funds that convert to cash, plus you get a FREE entry in the $80K Sharpshooter — the top score earns $5,000 and 6,155 of 30,561 teams will get paid. Or redeem your FREE entry in the $100K Crossover, normally a $27 buy-in. That contest has 877 prizes ($10,000 for first) and a maximum of only 4,225 teams.

The Warriors are healthy, with Stephen Curry $10300 and Klay Thompson $7600 doing most of the scoring while Andrew Bogut $6600 anchors the defense. Draymond Green $7900 does plenty of everything, despite a tender ankle. Harrison Barnes $4600 is the nominal starter at SF, but Andre Igoudala $4100 might get more minutes at a lower cost.

It’s hard to imagine how the Celtics will win, as the Cavaliers have the three best players on the parquet floor. LeBron James $10700, Kyrie Irving $8100 and Kevin Love $7300 are all unstoppable; any of them can produce monster numbers. This should be like the first two games, with Isaiah Thomas $6900 as the main offensive threat — Boston’s bench, including Jared Sullinger $5400 and Jae Crowder $4300, outscored their starters 51-40 on Tuesday. At C, Tyler Zeller $3900 played nine minutes more than Kelly Olynyk $4100 and was more effective.

It’s a similar back-to-the-wall scenario for the Bucks, who are overmatched at several positions. Derrick Rose $7500 is too good for Michael Carter-Williams $6500, while the skilled, experienced combo of Pau Gasol $8800 and Joakim Noah $6300 can dominate Ersan Ilyasova $5500 and Zaza Pachulia $5200 inside. The biggest difference so far has been Jimmy Butler $8000, who followed up a 25-point effort in Game 1 with 31 on Monday. Even the extra day of rest favors the veteran Bulls. Nikola Mirotic (quad) is out and Taj Gibson $3800 (knee) is not 100%, so the starters will be busy. Khris Middleton $6000 and John Henson $4000 are at least playable in DFS, but an upset seems unlikely.

Putting it all together is extremely difficult, because there aren’t enough “live” bargains to combine with the expensive superstars. In today’s sample lineup, surrounding Davis with Butler, Irving and one of the two best centers means punting SF and filling with low-ceiling guys at G, F and Util.

Pos	Premium	Midrange	Bargain
PG	Stephen Curry $10300	Kyrie Irving $8100	Norris Cole $4400
SG	Jimmy Butler $8000	Khris Middleton $6000	Iman Shumpert $3700
SF	LeBron James $10700	Quincy Pondexter $5300	Mike Dunleavy $4700
PF	Anthony Davis $10900	Pau Gasol $8800	Taj Gibson $3800
C	Andrew Bogut $6600	Joakim Noah $6300	Tyler Zeller $3900