Fantasy Spin April 28, 2015

Tonight is a treat for basketball fans and one of the more difficult DFS challenges of the entire NBA season. There’s a terrific Western Conference doubleheader on TNT, starting at 8:00 Eastern.

Monday night was relatively easy, despite getting two of the three games wrong. The Nets tying their series was a surprise, with Deron Williams playing his best game in about two years. Milwaukee winning in Chicago was a shock, but I didn’t anticipate Derrick Rose being off-target again. In yesterday’s Spin, I loved Damian Lillard and the Blazers, touted Nick Calathes and suggested an extreme stars-and-scrubs lineup. That approach paid off in every contest I entered at DraftKings.

DK matches your first deposit 100% (up to $600) with bonus funds that convert to cash, plus you get a FREE entry in the $80K Sharpshooter — the top score earns $5,000 and 6,155 of 30,651 teams will get paid. Win even more in the $80K Crossover, normally a $27 buy-in. That contest has 705 guaranteed cash prizes ($10,000 for first) and a maximum of only 3,380 teams.

Dallas came up with a superb effort at home on Sunday to avoid being swept. Can they do it again in Houston? J.J. Barea $6100 is the starting PG and SF Al-Farouq Aminu $5600 double-doubled (16 & 12) while playing solid D against the great James Harden $10400. Houston will be more determined tonight; Dwight Howard $8100 did not have the same intensity in Game 4 after getting much the best of Tyson Chandler $6800 in the previous two. Josh Smith $6400 and Corey Brewer $4500 are other Rockets to own. Win or lose, Monta Ellis $7800 will get his numbers and Dirk Nowitzki $7600 lives for games like this.

It’s a shame that either the Spurs or Clippers will soon be out of the playoffs. Chris Paul $9800 and Blake Griffin $10000 were fantastic in San Antonio on Sunday to even a great series. Kawhi Leonard $8900 and Tim Duncan $8300 are carrying the defending champs, though Tony Parker $5200 (Achilles) was a bit more mobile in Game 4.

DeAndre Jordan $8000 can dominate Tiago Splitter $2600, so Boris Diaw $5100 comes off the bench and gets starter’s minutes. After shooting the lights out, J.J. Redick $4900 and Austin Rivers $2600 are attractively priced. For whatever reason, Danny Green $4100 had a terrible game at both ends of the floor. He’s cheap if you think he’ll atone. I’m also considering Patty Mills $3100 because Parker is not 100% and may need backup.

Now we get to the combination math and logic puzzle — how to fit eight players into a $50000 cap and maximize fantasy points. CP3 and Blake are clearly the best at their positions, but using both forces compromises elsewhere. It’s possible to stack seven Clippers (though Matt Barnes $3900 is playing with a sore shoulder) and have $6400 left for the F spot — enough for J-Smoove or Aminu.

You could also stack six Rockets, but Terrence Jones $5300 and Trevor Ariza $5500 haven’t contributed enough for my money. All five Mavericks starters plus Leonard, Brewer and Rivers is a valid and possibly competitive lineup.

Barea got a $1500 salary boost and Aminu costs $1200 more after their Game 4 heroics; it was a lot easier to squeeze them in on Sunday. The middle and low price ranges are not exactly loaded and the top-heavy talent is expensive — the three highest-salaried players didn’t make today’s sample lineup.

Pos	Premium	Midrange	Bargain
PG	Chris Paul $9800	J.J. Barea $6100	Austin Rivers $2600
SG	James Harden $10400	Monta Ellis $7800	Corey Brewer $4500
SF	Kawhi Leonard $8900	Josh Smith $6400	Matt Barnes $3900
PF	Blake Griffin $10000	Tim Duncan $8300	Boris Diaw $5100
C	Dwight Howard $8100	DeAndre Jordan $8000	Tiago Splitter $2600