With the NBA Playoffs in full swing, it’s time to start looking ahead to the NBA Draft. As the NBA Combine approaches and the memories of the NCAA Tournament fade, 60 players with contrasting resumes built all over the world will hope to have their names called and join the NBA.
Unlike a year ago when the draft was top-heavy, featuring elite prospects such as Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, and Joel Embiid, this year lacks the sizzling star power at the top. Karl Towns showed flashes during his freshman season of being worthy of the top pick, while Jahlil Okafor has long been seen a polished big prospect who is far advanced for his age. Others, such as Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell, who has yet to declare, and Emmanuel Mudiay could contend for the top spot depending on how the NBA Lottery shakes out on May 19.
As we approach draft night, expect a flurry of trades and some significant movement on the draft board to reflect prospects whose stock has soared.
For now, as we await the lottery, we will approach Mock 1.0 with the expectation that the teams with the worst records will select accordingly. Mock 2.0 will be published the night of the lottery, and we will keep going until the day/night of the draft.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves – Karl-Anthony Towns, PF, Kentucky
Towns emerged from Kentucky’s nearly perfect season as the prospect to start with atop draft boards, but he has a ways to go to solidify his stock as the top pick. Towns has shown the ability to play inside but still lacks the polish for that to translate immediately to the NBA. He played limited minutes in the Wildcats’ platoon system, averaging 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks.
Towns has great footwork, nice court vision for a player his size, and a decent touch that should become very essential to him stretching the court.
Due to his size and athleticism, Towns’ upside is slightly higher than Okafor’s, but he will need to impress during workouts to maintain his lead. Unless, of course, if the Knicks win the lottery. Team president Phil Jackson has already said he believes Towns is the best fit for the Triangle offense.
2. New York Knicks – Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
For the last few years, scouts have raved about Okafor’s advanced post game and that he could be the next great prospect with a dominating back-to-the-basket game.
It’s true Okafor has a great post presence and is very sound fundamentally, and if he can add some range to his repertoire … watch out. But for now, he is an atrocious FT shooter (51 percent) but a beast in the paint (17.3 ppg, .664 FG pct.)
While Duke cut down the nets in Indianapolis, Okafor was a key player as a true freshman. But scouts will need to see Okafor pass the eye test and measure out at the NBA Combine, as concerns about his conditioning and lack of explosion will follow him during the pre-draft workouts.
3. Philadelphia 76ers – D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
While I’m told Russell is higher than Emmanuel Mudiay on some boards, this pick reflects the absolute brilliant freshman season he turned in for Ohio State as he averaged 19.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 points.
Drawing comparisons to James Harden, among others, Russell is a guard that can run the offense and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.
Russell needs to hit the weight room, but in time might be the prospect with the highest ceiling in this draft.
The Sixers need help at both guard positions, and I would not be surprised to see them trade down to No. 3 even if they hit the jackpot and get the No. 1 or No. 2 pick.
4. Los Angeles Lakers – Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Guangdong (China)
Mudiay spent what would have been his freshman year in China playing for Guangdong, where he missed much of the season with a knee injury before returning in the finals but coming up short against Stephon Marbury and the Beijing Ducks. Mudiay is representative of a new era of NBA point guards who are interchangeable as the lead guard or shooting guard, much like Eric Bledsoe.
At 6’5″ Mudiay is long and has explosion that is very difficult to find in many PG prospects. At his best, Mudiay is a facilitator, who is deadly off the pick and roll when attacking the rim. Reminds some of John Wall.
He was initially committed to play for Larry Brown at SMU, but chose instead to head overseas in order to earn some money for his family. His case is one of the reasons why NBPA director Michele Roberts was to lower the age limit back to 18.
5. Orlando Magic – Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
After spending three seasons honing his skills, Cauley-Stein has established himself as an elite post defender and rim protector. The comparisons to DeAndre Jordan are accurate, and in a draft his wide open any lottery team looking for an impact big will be looking hard at Cauley-Stein.
While he will never be a 20 ppg scorer, he can start in the NBA early in his career.
He was fifth on the Wildcats in scoring, averaging 8.9 ppg with 1.7 blocks. What stands out on his stat line is his field goal percentage of .572 — a notch above Towns’ .566. But whereas Towns was an 81 percent free throw shooter, Cauley-Stein needs work (just like Jordan) after making only 61 percent.
6. Sacramento Kings – Mario Hezonja, SF, Barcelona
Hezonja is a very skilled scorer with the versatility to play multiple positions offensively.
At just 20 years old Hezonja is a prospect that could stay overseas for additional seasoning or come over and begin his development. Like many European prospects, the biggest knock on Hezonja is that he can be soft and is not a great defender, but he will have a chance to squash those doubts during the pre-draft workouts.
For more on Hezonja, check out this fine column from colleague A.J. Mitnick.
7. Denver Nuggets – Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
It’s hard not to look at Johnson and immediately gush over his potential.
As a freshman, Johnson was more physically developed than some seniors. Watching game film you can immediately see Johnson’s scoring prowess. If there is one area of Johnson’s offensive game that needs improvement, it is finishing around the rim.
He led a deep Arizona team in scoring at 13.8 ppg, and his 37 percent shooting from 3-point distance was OK. He will need to show in workouts that he is capable of knocking down the longer NBA 3-point shot.
8. Detroit Pistons – Justice Winslow, SF, Duke
After winning the national championship, Winslow tossed his hat in the ring and declared, which was not a complete surprise.
Winslow looked physically advanced for the college game, and combined with his offensive versatility should be a clear top-10 pick. Where Winslow needs to prove himself is playing against bigger and longer defenders, against whom he has struggled at times. But he is a great potential glue guy, someone who can get blocks and steals on the defensive end and hold his own on offense.
The Pistons are desperate for a productive player at the small forward spot. Winslow is epitome of efficiency when it comes to shot selection. There were only three games all season in which he shot poorly from the field.
9. Charlotte Hornets – Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
Lyles came in to his freshman season out of Indianapolis as arguably the most hyped prospect in this year’s class for Kentucky. While he had an up and down year, Lyles really took off around tourney time and showcased why his skill set for a player with his size (6’10”) makes him an intriguing choice.
Production-wise, this may seem high for him. But Lyles should be one of the fastest rising prospects during workouts and the combine.
He averaged 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds for Kentucky — although it should be noted that all of the Wildcats’ stats look much better on a per-40 minute basis. That is what happens when you play on the most loaded team in the country.
10. Miami Heat – Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Sevilla
After withdrawing from last year’s draft, Porzingis comes in even more polished and ready to contribute in the NBA as a rookie.
Reminiscent of Nikola Mirotic in having a diverse offensive repertoire, Porzingis will have some GM’s salivating at the thought of a 7’0 footer that can have the offense run through him in the mid-range/post area or step out and knock it down from beyond the arc.
Mitnick profiled him as an “under the lottery” prospect a year ago.
He is certain to be a lottery pick this time around.
CONTINUE READING: PICKS 11-20 | PICKS 21-30
I’ve been reading your prognostications for a few years now, and I hope you’re not one of those guys (cough! Chad Ford. cough! Chad Ford. cough! Chad Ford) that goes back in time to prognostications from prior drafts, and retroactively fabricates what his prognostications actually were at the time they were made to make him look more like a sage soothsayer today.
Ford has since disclaimed responsibility ever since he was busted by Deadspin, and for unknown reasons ESPN has let him slide on his incredibly flimsy assertions of innocence. But just like all the athletes that regularly claim it wasn’t their tweets and their Twitter accounts were hacked by nefarious person or persons unknown, who with an IQ higher than a pet rock is he seriously kidding?
I hope I’m not going to go back in time to your own previous prognostications and catch any similar shenanigans.