LeBron James is headed to another Eastern Conference finals, the Los Angeles Clippers are headed to another Game 7, and who knows where Tom Thibodeau is headed.
With those in mind – and no games on Saturday night for the first time since the World Series – we thought it would be a really good time for another edition of the Three-Man Weave.
Here we go.
1. Are the Cleveland Cavaliers home free into the NBA Finals?
CHRIS SHERIDAN, PUBLISHER: Before the Chicago-Cleveland series started, I went out with coach Bobby Gonzalez and a few other basketball folks and we started debating who would win. I said the Cavaliers, because James Jones and/or Iman Shumpert could step in for the suspended J.R. Smith, and Cleveland had plenty of backups elsewhere, too – even behind the injured Kevin Love with Tristan Thompson. They are just too deep, too perfectly constructed, to have much of a problem with either Washington or Atlanta. So that is a long way of saying, yes, they are home free – although a speed bump or two in the conference finals would not surprise me.
CHRIS BERNUCCA, MANAGING EDITOR: Not even close. The series doesn’t start until Wednesday, which helps LeBron James and Kyrie Irving get closer to full strength. But Cleveland will have its hands full with either Washington or Atlanta. If the Wizards somehow emerge, they can play Marcin Gortat and Nene together, which forces the Cavaliers to play Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov and kills their offensive spacing. I also don’t see Irving or Matthew Dellavedova consistently staying in front of John Wall. And Washington has shot-makers in Paul Pierce and Bradley Beal, who is having a terrific postseason. Atlanta’s offense has gotten better as the playoffs have progressed. Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder also present containment issues. And does J.R. Smith have the attention span to shadow Kyle Korver?
BEN DUBOSE, COLUMNIST/BLOGGER: Not yet. I think the Wizards with John Wall would have a legit shot against the Cavs, especially with a gimpy Kyrie Irving on the other side. Between the potential point guard mismatch and Paul Pierce’s propensity for making huge playoff shots, I’d give the Wizards a fighting chance. But for Washington, just getting to that series will be tough, considering the hole they dug themselves vs. Atlanta. I think the only reason the Hawks lead is the Wall injury, though – and if he’s good to go for his usual minutes moving forward, I expect the Wizards to rally and win in seven. Should they not, I do think the Cavs would dispatch the Hawks with ease. Jeff Teague’s efficiency has taken a nosedive in the playoffs (20.6 PER to 15.7), and I don’t think he’d be able to exploit Irving in the same way Wall could.
2. Where is Tom Thibodeau coaching next season?
SHERIDAN: I have already weighed in on why Thibodeau will not accept an offer to coach the Pelicans. It has nothing to do with superstar Anthony Davis. It has a lot to do with the handling of the Monty Williams firing, which is pretty difficult to rationalize given how New Orleans overcame injuries and history with a late season push to reach the playoffs for the first time in four years in the daunting Western Conference. Thibodeau does not want to be part of a franchise that values organizational charts above human relationships. He may use the Pelicans’ vacancy for leverage, but he will end up in Orlando.
BERNUCCA: Denver, New Orleans and Orlando are the teams currently without coaches, and everyone – including me – fully expects Thibodeau to move from the United States to Florida and coach the Magic, who have a starter kit of nice young players, tons of flexibility and a GM with a long-term plan in Rob Hennigan but need a driving force with a tangible, successful track record to direct them out of mediocrity. But if Thibodeau doesn’t end up in Disneyworld, here are two other possibilities: Minnesota, where GM Flip Saunders – whose ties with Thibodeau date back 25 years when both were proteges of Bill Musselman – could drop his coaching duties and bring in Thibodeau to teach his Romper Room roster how to play defense; or Toronto, which also is a sieve on defense and where Dwane Casey is twisting in the wind after consecutive first-round exits. Bonus answer: Either Ron Adams or Alvin Gentry, both currently on Steve Kerr’s staff in Golden State, gets the Bulls job.
DUBOSE: Orlando. Our own Chris Sheridan did a good job of explaining why the Thibodeau-Pelicans connection could be overblown. In addition to the Monty Williams factor, I’ll add this: check the conference. The Pelicans play in the loaded West and the toughest division in sports. Houston, with James Harden and Dwight Howard, is a contender for the foreseeable future. So are Memphis and San Antonio. Dallas under Mark Cuban is always a threat. The landscape of the West would seem to limit New Orleans’ upward mobility, and then there’s the potential for Anthony Davis to leave in a couple years, should the franchise not take the next step. That Western Conference factor could also rule out Denver. Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic play in the weak East with many young building blocks already in place, another high draft pick this June and major cap flexibility moving forward. That sounds like the safer bet.
3. Clippers-Rockets, Game 7. Who ya got?
SHERIDAN: The team of destiny. The team that always goes to a Game 7. The team that knocked off the San Antonio Spurs in one of the most magical Game 7s in recent memory. The team that has Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and just barely enough reinforcements to make it through what should be a very entertaining contest. This one goes down to the final minute … and CP3 is the hero again as the Clippers win.
BERNUCCA: Rockets. I’m a bit torn, because in October I picked the Clippers to win the NBA championship but two weeks ago I picked them to lose this series because I thought they were gassed and Chris Paul was hurt after beating the Spurs. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they muster up enough to steal a Game 7 on the road. But role players have a tendency to play better at home, and the Rockets have more contributing role players with the potential to have impactful games. If Trevor Ariza doesn’t come up big, Corey Brewer might. If Josh Smith disappears, Terrence Jones could emerge. If Jason Terry falters, Pablo Prigioni could step up. On LA’s side, do you really think Austin Rivers, Spencer Hawes or Baby Davis have the confidence or cojones to make their presence felt? Four Clippers may end up playing 40-plus minutes, and that may be too much to ask.
DUBOSE: Rockets. To quote Dennis Green’s infamous meltdown, the Clippers are who we thought they were. They are a thin group whose bench is finally being exposed. After shooting lights out from three in Game 7 against the Spurs and in the first four games of this series, the shooters have come crashing down to earth. Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers shot a combined 6-of-21 in the Game 6 collapse (more on that in our latest podcast), and as a team, the Clips are 16-of-65 (24.6 percent) from distance in their past two games. On the whole, LA’s bench scored just 16 points in Game 6. Combine that with a revitalized Houston bench led by Corey Brewer and Terrence Jones, and I like the deeper Rockets in a Game 7 where both teams are weary after a grueling series. You also have to factor in the historical dominance of home teams in Game 7s and question the Clippers’ mental state after blowing a 19-point lead with 14 minutes left in a close-out game at home. Chris Paul and Doc Rivers are strong leaders, so they’re as well positioned as any team can be to overcome it. But it’s an awful lot to ask.