Fantasy Spin May 18, 2015

We’re down to the NBA version of the Final Four. “Daily” Fantasy Sports becomes a two-day event the rest of the way; DraftKings has set salaries for contests that close at 9:00 Eastern on Tuesday and conclude with Wednesday night’s game.

Congratulations to the Houston Rockets, who completed a remarkable comeback yesterday to defeat the Clippers after losing three of the first four games. My crystal ball sees a similar trend as they visit Golden State. A physical and emotional letdown seems likely tomorrow night, and while other experts and pundits are making series predictions, Game One is all that matters in DFS.

The Cavaliers finally vanquished the Bulls last Thursday and the Hawks prevailed over the Wizards on Friday. The long rest will be very good for both teams from the standpoint of injury recovery; health is obviously a factor in both series but perhaps even more in the East final.

DK matches your first deposit 100% (up to $600) with bonus funds that convert to cash, plus you get a FREE entry in the $40K Sharpshooter — the top score earns $3,000 and 3,236 of 15,332 teams will get paid. Odds are even better in the $30K Crossover, normally a $27 buy-in. That contest has 250 guaranteed prizes ($10,000 for first) and only 1,267 teams.

The early over/under lines suggest about a 20 point difference in the total scores. When choosing between similarly-priced players, the edge goes to those from the West.

Stephen Curry $10400, Klay Thompson $7400 and Draymond Green $7700 are the Warriors to target. You can afford to stack the maximum seven players from Golden State if you’re expecting a relatively easy win in the opener. That actually leaves more than $7000 for the eighth spot. Harrison Barnes $4900, Andrew Bogut $5000 and Andre Iguodala $4500 will get the most playing time; Shaun Livingston $2500 and David Lee $3000 are capable of paying their way in limited minutes.

James Harden $9500 and Dwight Howard $8700 are the clear standouts at their respective positions but the key man for Houston might be Trevor Ariza $6600, who hit 17 3-pointers in the last four games — six yesterday — and will be assigned to guard either Steph or Klay. Josh Smith $5500 continues to be listed as a SF, though he actually splits time at PF with Terrence Jones $4400, which limits both in terms of fantasy potential. Jason Terry $4300 is eligible only at SG, though he clearly has been starting at PG for weeks — since Patrick Beverley (wrist) was injured. I wish DK would fix that; Pablo Prigioni $2700 is 38, plays 15-20 minutes and is not the the only PG on the roster. JET would be far more playable at the one than the two. Corey Brewer $4500 deserves strong consideration in the G or Util spots.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, we begin with the Kyrie conundrum. Kyrie Irving $7200 (knee, foot) did not play in the second half of the series clincher, though he supposedly could have if the game had been closer. I told you faithful readers that Matthew Dellavedova $3700 was a steal at $2800 that night and cashed accordingly. The Aussie remains a playable sixth man who is one Irving misstep away from significant value. LeBron James $11400 will also benefit from the extended rest; I presume DeMarre Carroll $6900 will be assigned to cover him and that matchup will be crucial for both teams.

The Hawks didn’t exactly crush Washington. Jeff Teague $7300 does not play huge minutes and may not be fully recovered from an ankle injury, but he’s probably sounder than Kyrie. Dennis Schroder $4600 offers the best bang for the buck at PG; he’ll get his usual 20+ minutes — more if both teams go small. The big advantage for Atlanta is up front, where Paul Millsap $8200 and Al Horford $7900 are older, wiser, quicker and more talented than Tristan Thompson $5800 and Timofey Mozgov $4900, who are at least taller.

Kyle Korver $5400 is in a brutal shooting slump, missing 11 of his last 12 3-point attempts, but playing well defensively. Iman Shumpert $5200 has become a huge two-way factor for Cleveland and after his foolish two-game suspension, J.R. Smith $4800 was steadily more effective against the Bulls. It’s a fascinating series in real life, less likely to produce giant individual numbers. My sample lineup and today’s Short List is Warriors-heavy but even with only two games, there are many possible paths to the big money.

Pos	Premium	Midrange	Bargain
PG	Stephen Curry $10400	Jeff Teague $7300	Dennis Schroder $4600
SG	James Harden $9500	Klay Thompson $7400	M. Dellavedova $3700
SF	LeBron James $11400	DeMarre Carroll $6900	Andre Iguodala $4500
PF	Paul Millsap $8200	Draymond Green $7700	David Lee $3000
C	Dwight Howard $8700	Al Horford $7900	Andrew Bogut $5000