Despite all the talk of a parity-filled, wide open, volatile NBA postseason, the top two teams from each conference
advanced to the conference finals. For those of you who ignored the Eastern Conference outside of Cleveland and Chicago, the Atlanta Hawks won 60 games and are the top seed out East. Game One is Wednesday night in Atlanta, with LeBron James’ Cavaliers wearing the road burgundy, or those unattractive navy alternates.
Atlanta went 3-1 against Cleveland during the regular season, although three of those games came before the Cavs made the key acquisitions of Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith. On the other hand, the Hawks no longer have to deal with Kevin Love, who was lost for the season with a shoulder injury during Cleveland’s first-round sweep of Boston.
Those looking for high scores and fast breaks will have to look out west. While Cleveland and Atlanta boasted the fifth- and sixth-best offensive ratings (points per 100 possessions), respectively, during the regular season, the Hawks had the 15th-fastest pace (estimated possessions per 48 minutes), while the Cavs were a plodding 25th. Slow, methodical, efficient offense will be the road these two teams try to take to the Finals.
What other important factors will determine the outcome of the series? Here are the five biggest keys to look out for in this series.
1. Who will guard LeBron James? Some facts: James shot 48.8 percent from the field and 35.4 percent from three during the regular season to go with a 112 offensive rating. In the playoffs, those numbers have shrunk to 42.4 percent from the field, a paltry 14.6 percent from three and a 102 offensive rating. Cleveland is scoring 10 fewer points per 100 possessions with James on the floor in the playoffs as compared to his 69 regular season games.
A lot of that had to do with Chicago’s Jimmy Butler, the league’s most improved player and an emerging defensive stopper. Does Atlanta have someone who could contain LeBron?
In six-game series wins over Brooklyn and Washington, the Hawks have obviously not faced a versatile scorer and creator of James’ caliber. The likely choice will be DeMarre Carroll, the team’s playoff leader in win shares, one of the postseason’s breakout stars who’s had a very solid 103 defensive rating over the first two rounds. Carroll prides himself on his defense and energy, but facing James in a best-of-seven series is likely well beyond something Carroll has had to encounter during his career.
2. Is Kyrie Irving healthy? The well-being of Cleveland’s point guard is a major factor in the series. Irving’s injured knee limited him to 12:10 of game action in the clinching 21-point cakewalk over the Bulls. Although he is expected to play in Game One, any limitation Irving may have is something Atlanta needs to exploit.
After an impressive regular season, Jeff Teague’s postseason leaves a lot to be desired. Teague was an All-Star, shooting 46 percent from the field with a career best 111 offensive rating. Those numbers are down to 39.9 percent from the field and a 102 offensive rating. It should be noted that he has been slightly better from three and strong defensively during the playoffs. Teague needs to find his offensive game against Cleveland and play Irving tough for Atlanta to have a fighter’s chance in the series.
3. Containing Kyle Korver and the Hawks’ 3 machine. The Hawks are 5-2 in the playoffs when Korver – who led the NBA in 3-point shooting this season – scores at least 10 points and are 6-3 when he hits multiple 3-pointers. Although Korver totaled just 11 points in the three close wins the Hawks had to close out the Wizards in the conference semifinals, Cleveland still needs to account for his whereabouts at all times.
The Cavs would be wise to employ Shumpert in this role. Shumpert has a 103 defensive rating this postseason and his strong perimeter D is one of the primary reasons he was acquired from New York in January. He will help Cleveland defend the three, which is a major part of Atlanta’s offense.
After shooting 38 percent from three as a team during the regular season, Atlanta is down to 34.3 percent in the playoffs. That ranks eighth among the 16 playoff participants and third among the four semifinalists. That percentage is only that high thanks to Carroll, the only Hawks player above 40 percent from beyond the arc.
The low percentage hasn’t deterred the Hawks from hoisting them— Atlanta’s 28.9 attempts is just one fewer three than Golden State has taken per game in the playoffs— but the Hawks’ 3-point proficiency needs to return quickly against Cleveland.
4. Can the Hawks’ bigs take advantage of the Love-less Cavs? It is almost remarkable that Cleveland is still around in the playoffs the way Timofey Mozgov has been playing on offense. After scoring 10.6 points per game during the regular season on 59 percent shooting, those numbers are down to 8.5 points and 43.5 percent.
Mozgov’s diminished offense has been offset by the play of Tristan Thompson. The impending free agent has matched Mozgov’s playoff scoring average on 56.6 percent shooting with an absurd 140 offensive rating. He also is grabbing 9.4 rebounds per game. While Timo has struggled offensively, his 100 defensive rating allowed Cleveland to curtail Chicago’s tired bigs and win the series.
All-Stars Al Horford and Paul Millsap have combined to average 31.3 points in the playoffs, a shade below their regular season norm but still a large obstacle for the Cavaliers. The two bigs have anchored Atlanta’s strong interior defense during the playoffs, both earning defensive ratings below 100. Atlanta has the better big man rotation than Cleveland. Now it has to play like it.
5. Uncharted territory for both coaches. All four remaining coaches are in the conference finals for the first time in their coaching careers. The two in this series – Atlanta’s Mike Budenholzer and Cleveland’s David Blatt – are in their second and first seasons, respectively, as NBA coaches.
While Budenholzer won as an assistant with the Spurs and Blatt is a highly accomplished European champion, the magnitude of this series and the pressure on these two men has never been as intense. Finding the right lineups and substitution patterns and calling good timeouts – but only when you actually have timeouts – will be huge in this series. Both are really good coaches, but let’s see if either gives his team an advantage.
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Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who focuses on analytics, profiles and features. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. You should follow him on Twitter.