Based on conversations I had with multiple people around the league at last week’s combine in Chicago, this draft sounds like it will be known as the Karl-Anthony Towns draft– and the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to get him.
Barring an injury issue similar to what Joel Embiid had last year, Towns is all but certain to be the first player to shake hands with Adam Silver on draft night and become the third straight No. 1 pick to wear a Minnesota jersey.
The NBA Draft Lottery is now complete and the order for both rounds is officially set. Armed with the first pick and the right to select Towns, a versatile player that reminds some of Chris Bosh, Minnesota has an intriguing young core to build around.
With Towns potentially alongside Anthony Bennett with Shabazz Muhammad and Wiggins on the wing, Minnesota is building something. Reports are out there that Ricky Rubio may want a trade, but the future is very bright in Minnesota.
With the Conference Finals kicking off the NBA Playoffs (see our East and West previews) will be taking center stage while many of these heralded prospects try to improve or secure their draft stocks. Overall, this draft is seen as mediocre, but there is some depth in the latter half of round one.
One scout I spoke to in Chicago during the combine thought there might not be one perennial All-Star in this draft class, while another executive I spoke to felt that Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Devin Booker could be future All-Stars.
Here’s my latest projection of the top 30 picks.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves – Karl-Anthony Towns, PF, Kentucky
Tasked with rebuilding around Andrew Wiggins, the logical choice is Towns, who is versatile offensively and can also fill the gap left behind from the Kevin Love trade. While Jahlil Okafor is more polished, his game requires offensive touches and a slower pace to be most effective. The Wolves prefer to surround Wiggins with pieces that will maximize his development, which Towns will.
Towns emerged from Kentucky’s nearly perfect season as the prospect to start with atop draft boards, but he has a ways to go to refine his game. Towns has shown the ability to play inside, but still lacks the polish for that to translate immediately to the NBA. He played limited minutes in the Wildcats’ platoon system, averaging 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks.
Towns has great footwork, nice court vision for a player his size and a decent touch that should become very essential to him stretching the court. As I said, Towns reminds some scouts of Chris Bosh with his offensive versatility. Due to his size and athleticism, his upside is higher than Okafor’s. Learning under Kevin Garnett next season could be the perfect situation for Towns.
2. Los Angeles Lakers – Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke 
Every player always wants to be the first pick, but when given a choice of playing for Minnesota or the Lakers, it’s a no-brainer. Okafor may be ecstatic on draft night to hear his name called on draft night and join Kobe Bryant. For the last few years, scouts have raved about Okafor’s advanced post game and that he could be the next great prospect with a dominant back-to-the-basket game.
It’s true that Okafor has a great post presence and is very sound fundamentally, but if he can add some range to his repertoire, watch out. But for now, he is an atrocious free throw shooter, 51 percent, but a beast in the paint, averaging 17.3 points per game on 66.4 percent shooting in his lone season at Duke.
While Duke cut down the nets in Indianapolis, Okafor was a key player as a true freshman. However, concerns about his conditioning and lack of explosion will follow him during his pre-draft workouts. Another concern for Okafor and the Lakers’ front office is playing alongside an aging Bryant, who has been rough on young players in the past as he focuses on winning.
Ultimately, the Lakers get their future franchise player who could be an instant impact player offensively in the low block. If Julius Randle can return healthy, the Lakers’ future looks very bright with two very talented young bigs.
3. Philadelphia 76ers – D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
I’m told Russell is higher than Emmanuel Mudiay on some boards, and this pick reflects the absolute brilliant freshman season he turned in for Ohio State after averaging 19.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game.
Drawing comparisons to James Harden, among others, Russell is a guard that can run the offense and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. Russell needs to hit the weight room, but in time he might be the prospect with the highest ceiling in this draft.
The Sixers need help at both guard positions, and privately I am sure there was a sigh of relief for Philly being in a position to add Russell without passing up Towns or Okafor. Russell is the perfect fit for an already young, talented core that includes Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel.
4. New York Knicks – Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Guangdong (China) 
The Knicks were hoping to land one of the top three prospects, but landing Mudiay is a coup for the Knicks. He spent what would have been his freshman year in China playing for Guangdong, where he missed much of the season with an ankle injury before returning in the finals and coming up short against Stephon Marbury and the Beijing Ducks.
Mudiay is representative of a new era of NBA point guards who are interchangeable as the lead guard or shooting guard, much like Eric Bledsoe. At 6’5″, Mudiay is long and explosive, a combination that’s very difficult to find in many PG prospects. At his best, Mudiay is a facilitator who’s deadly off the pick-and-roll when attacking the rim, reminding some of John Wall.
He was initially committed to play for Larry Brown at SMU, but chose instead to head overseas in order to earn some money for his family. His case is one of the reasons why NBPA director Michele Roberts was to lower the age limit back to 18. Giving Derek Fisher and Phil Jackson a lead guard to build around is a great foundation piece for the future of the Knicks.
5. Orlando Magic – Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
It’s hard not to look at Johnson and immediately gush over his potential.
As a freshman, Johnson was more physically developed than some seniors. Watching game film, you can immediately see Johnson’s scoring prowess. If there is one area of Johnson’s offensive game that needs improvement, it’s finishing around the rim.
He led a deep Arizona team in scoring at 13.8 points per game, and his 37 percent shooting from 3-point distance was okay. He will need to show in workouts that he is capable of knocking down the longer NBA three. After taking Aaron Gordon last year and investing several picks on frontcourt players, the Magic should focus on the perimeter. While Orlando would love a shot at Mudiay and could attempt to move up, Johnson might be the best option here.
6. Sacramento Kings – Mario Hezonja, SF, Barcelona
The Kings are in need of wing help, so I expect them to look heavily at Hezonja, who is a very skilled scorer with the versatility to play multiple positions offensively.
At just 20 years old, Hezonja is a prospect who could stay overseas for additional seasoning or come over and begin his development. Like many European prospects, the biggest knock on Hezonja is that he can be soft and not a great defender, but he will have a chance to squash those doubts during his pre-draft workouts.
With Sacramento set to open up their new arena in 2016, the Kings are trying to change the culture of losing after their ninth straight lottery appearance. So a player like Hezonja could be a great value and make an impact whenever he arrives in the NBA.
For more on Hezonja, check out this fine column from colleague A.J. Mitnick.
7. Denver Nuggets – Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
After winning the national championship, Winslow tossed his hat in the ring and declared, which was not a complete surprise.
Winslow looked physically advanced for the college game, and, combined with his offensive versatility, should be a clear top-10 pick.
Where Winslow needs to prove himself is playing against bigger and longer defenders, after struggling against them at times, but he’s a great potential glue guy who can get blocks and steals on defense and hold his own on offense.
The Nuggets could target more of a scorer, but with all the pieces they currently have, a player like Winslow would be a great addition as more teams look for players with his skill-set. Winslow is the epitome of efficiency when it comes to shot selection. There were only three games all season in which he shot poorly from the field.
8. Detroit Pistons – Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Sevilla
After withdrawing from last year’s draft, Porzingis comes in even more polished and ready to contribute in the NBA as a rookie.
Reminiscent of Nikola Mirotic in having a diverse offensive repertoire, Porzingis will have some GMs salivating at the thought of a seven-footer that can have the offense run through him in the mid-range, post area or step out and knock it down from beyond the arc.
Porzingis sounds like the perfect complement to Andre Drummond in Detroit and with Greg Monroe possibly heading elsewhere this summer. Porzingis provides valuable insurance, or he could be brought along slowly if Monroe re-signs, which seems unlikely.
Mitnick profiled him as an “under the lottery” prospect a year ago.
9. Charlotte Hornets – Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
After spending three seasons honing his skills at Kentucky, Cauley-Stein has established himself as an elite post defender and rim protector. The comparisons to DeAndre Jordan are accurate, and in a draft this wide open, any lottery team looking for an impact big will be looking hard at Cauley-Stein.
While he will never be a 20-point scorer per game, he can start in the NBA early in his career. He was fifth on the Wildcats in scoring, averaging nearly nine points per game, to go with 1.7 blocks per contest. What stands out for Cauley-Stein was his 57.2 field goal percentage, a notch above Towns’ 56.6. But whereas Towns shot 81 percent from the line, Cauley-Stein shot just 61 percent. That’s another similarity to Jordan.
After making the playoffs last season, the Hornets will be looking to bounce back in the East next year. Adding a player like Cauley-Stein will give them additional size and length while adding an elite rim protector.
10. Miami Heat – Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
Lyles came into his freshman season out of Indianapolis as arguably the most hyped prospect in this year’s class for Kentucky. While he had an up-and-down year, Lyles really took off around tourney time and showcased why his skill set for a player with his size, 6’10”, makes him an intriguing choice.
Production-wise, this spot may seem high for him, but Lyles should be one of the fastest-rising prospects during workouts.
He averaged 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds for Kentucky, numbers that look better for Lyles and other UK players on a per-40 minute basis. That is what happens when you play on the most loaded team in the country.
With Miami looking to rebound and challenge in the Eastern Conference with a veteran group, Lyles could get plenty of regular season minutes while players like Chris Bosh rest on the bench. Learning and playing alongside Dwyane Wade, Bosh and Luol Deng would be a unique opportunity for any prospect.
CONTINUE READING: PICKS 11-20 | PICKS 21-30