The countdown has begun, and all heck breaks loose at 12:01 a.m. EDT Wednesday. We have The Decision II on our hands, but nobody is talking about it because everyone knows what LeBron James is going to do.
Kevin Love, however, is this year’s mystery man. DeAndre Jordan is one of the most coveted pieces out there. Mitch Kupchak would still love to have DeMarcus Cousins patrolling the middle, but he and the Lakers have a ton of fallback options.
Short contracts should be in vogue as players set themselves up for even bigger paydays a year from now when the salary cap jumps to $90 million. Guys who would not be considered max players in the past are going to be max players now. Phil Jackson’s salesmanship skills are going to be put to the test — “We have Carmelo Anthony, we have Kristaps Porzingis, we have no hope of being better than the Cleveland Cavaliers. So you want to come play for us? I can guarantee you the opportunity to play in front of front-row denizen Jim Dolan and every B-list celebrity in the Big Apple.”
Good luck with that, Phil.
The teams with significant cap room not only include the bottom-swelling Lakers and Knicks, but also the perennial powerhouse San Antonio Spurs, who go into free agency loaded with cap space about as often as they miss the playoffs. Another heavy hitter will be Mark Cuban, whose cap space got a major boost when Monta Ellis declined his player option.
The Sixers could be major players, too, if mad scientist Sam Hinkie chooses to cease kicking the can down the road and actually open his wallet to someone other than JaVale McGee.
The Portland Trail Blazers could have four new starters next season. Or, although it is unlikely, they could convince LaMarcus Aldridge, Wes Matthews, Arron Afflalo and Robin Lopez all to return. If that foursome hits the road, Neil Olshey gets to pitch recruits on the advantages of summering on Paul Allen’s yacht.
Pat Riley could be a player again if both Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng leave … but that is a big if.
All in all, it’ll be a free agency period that will not be as captivating as 2014 when James took his talents back to Cleveland, but it’ll still be bedlam to a different degree.
We will keep you updated each day throughout July.
First, a few things to keep in mind:
_ With the new economics in the NBA as a result of the new TV deal, this is going to be one interesting summer.
_ When we are talking about max deals, the math — and the money — gets quite interesting. The summer of 2016 will be bedlam as the money from the new nine-year, $24 billion TV deal kicks in. And because the Players Association refused to adopt the NBA’s proposal of “smoothing” in the revenue, the salary cap will jump an astronomical 32 percent to approximately $90 million with a projected tax line of $108 million.
_ Here are the teams with significant potential cap room in the summer of 2016: Every team. That means there’s almost no sense in taking a tough negotiating stance with a restricted free agent and forcing him to sign his qualifying offer, because that will only make him more expensive as an unrestricted free agent next summer.
_Don’t be surprised if players such as DeMarre Carroll, Tobias Harris or even Draymond Green or Khris Middleton receive max contracts, because those deals will be downright bargains compared to the size of max contracts a year from now. And teams that may have been apprehensive about exceeding the luxury tax to sign a player this summer may bite the bullet and pay the tax because the cap increase next summer almost ensures that they will not be a tax team in 2016, avoiding the higher repeater penalties.
_In assembling these rankings, we are factoring in the relative interest in each player, his willingness to change teams, whether he is unrestricted or restricted, has a player option or team option, skill, age and any other mitigating factors. Got that, Rajon?
1. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis (Unrestricted): This isn’t his first free agent rodeo. Remember, the Rockets signed him to a four-year, $55 million offer sheet in the post-lockout frenzy of 2011, which the Grizzlies matched. But this is his last shot at a monster contract, and no team can offer Gasol what the Grizzlies can. Sorry, Knicks fans, but sources tell me the difference between what Gasol can make by staying in Tennessee, compared to what he would lose in New York through higher income taxes and lower annual raises, will take them out of the equation. There is also the overlooked factor that Gasol has lived in Memphis since high school, when his brother was the Grizzlies’ alpha dog. So he’s probably not going anywhere, although the Spurs likely will kick the tires. The Lakers are not an option, the LA Times reports.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge, F, Portland (Unrestricted): Less than a year ago, Aldridge said he wanted to be “the best Blazer ever,” which could only be done by staying in the Pacific Northwest. But he also turned down a three-year, $55 million extension. Most assumed that was because he wanted the more lucrative five-year deal this summer — and Aldridge said as much. This will be Aldridge’s third contract and likely his last chance to truly explore free agency. The allure of playing for Dallas or San Antonio in his home state is strong. The Lakers will be in the mix. And the Blazers’ first-round exit from the playoffs doesn’t help. League executives consider him more likely to leave than to stay.
3. Kevin Love, F, Cleveland (Unrestricted): The biggest mystery guy on this list. He has become a third wheel with the Cavaliers, and his first career playoff trip ended with a serious shoulder injury that likely will keep him out of action until training camp. He has opted out of his contract, so now what? You could argue this one several ways. Does a return to Southern California where he played college ball seem more appealing? How about Boston, where he can accelerate the rebuilding plan? Or what about Portland, in his home state of Oregon? In the end, maybe the Cavs would have been better off keeping Andrew Wiggins. One idea being floated is Love signing a two-year deal with Cleveland with an opt-out, then hitting free agency again next summer when the cap jumps. He was due to make $16.7 million, but now can get a salary of $18.9 for next season.
4. Kawhi Leonard, F, San Antonio (Restricted): It doesn’t matter whether the Spurs are proactive and don’t allow their future cornerstone to get to the market, or reactive and allow another team the formality of making an offer. Leonard will become the first Spurs player to receive a true max deal – not an eight-figure average, like Tony Parker; not something slightly below the max, like Tim Duncan – since Duncan’s second contract in 2001. Think of all the poorly run teams that have given max deals to undeserving players in that span. The Spurs have not handed out one and have four championships to show for it. And the beauty of Leonard’s deal is that it will be below market value once the new TV money explodes the cap.
5. DeAndre Jordan, C, LA Clippers (Unrestricted): Max guy. Not many players can get you 20 rebounds on a nightly basis. Remember when Dwight Howard used to do that? A valid argument can be made that Jordan should have been both an All-Star and the Defensive Player of the Year this season. His horrifying free-throw shooting is a minor tradeoff for his paint presence on both ends and the fact that he is the NBA’s current iron man, having not missed a game since the league returned from its last lockout. It is safe to say that Steve Ballmer can afford to keep him on a five-year max deal, and I expect that to come his way. But Jordan is planning visits with the Lakers, Knicks, Mavericks and, of course, the Clippers.
6. Jimmy Butler, G, Chicago (Restricted): No one – not Leonard, not Brook Lopez, not Draymond Green, not Enes Kanter – has been on a more sustained or successful salary drive than Butler, who turned down $40 million over four years in October. Since then, he has become Chicago’s leading scorer, earned his first All-Star appearance and won Most Improved Player. With Derrick Rose returning to form at times in the playoffs, it’s easy to forget that Butler and Pau Gasol did the heavy lifting for much of the season. And like the Spurs with Leonard, the Bulls will have one of the game’s top shooting guards locked up for below market value once the TV money kicks in. There are reports the Lakers want to sign him to a one-year deal, but the Bulls would be sure to match. He isn’t going anywhere … for now. 2016 might be a different story if he indeed takes a one-year deal.
7. Greg Monroe, F, Detroit (Unrestricted): Do the Detroit Pistons consider him a max player? They didn’t a year ago, which is why Monroe and his agent, David Falk, accepted the qualifying offer and decided to see what comes their way in July 2015. This is the guy I can see the Knicks making the hardest push for, especially since they drafted fourth and chose Porzingis. Then again, D;Andre Jordan is an x-factor (would that be a Phil Jackson coup, or what?) But again, the actual dollar difference (when accounting for local taxes) between taking a max deal from a team not in California or New York is beyond substantial. For now, he appears to be the Knicks’ No. 1 target, as colleague Mike Scotto reported a few months ago. The Pistons’ acquisition of Ersan Ilyasova showed that Van Gundy wants to move to a stretch-4.
8. Goran Dragic, G, Miami (Unrestricted): He isn’t going anywhere. His agent, Bill Duffy, made quite the power play in getting him dealt to Miami, which removed the Knicks and Lakers from the equation in terms of potential destinations. He has already opted out of his player option, and we should expect the Heat to make him a max offer, and that will be that. There will be parties in Slovenia and South Beach, and the Heat will have their best point guard since … Tim Hardaway Sr.? The only question is timing, and that will be determined by what happens with Luol Deng and Dwayne Wade.
9. Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn (Unrestricted): He will get a max deal because he spent the last two months of the season showing a newfound desire to rebound and defend alongside his polished offensive game. That might have scared off Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov, who no longer has the drunken-sailor approach he brought to the NBA when he arrived a half-decade ago, but the Nets’ trade of Mason Plumlee to Portland on draft night changed the equation. Lopez seems to be an ideal fit for the Lakers, with the added bonus of being a California native. But there will always be questions about his long-term health due to his history of foot injuries. That’s why he is more likely to take a long deal rather than a one-year deal that would put him back in free agency next summer.
10. Draymond Green, F, Golden State (Restricted): There is no doubt that Green’s salary is going to jump from six figures ($920,000) to eight figures. The Warriors already are in tax territory next season, when Klay Thompson’s extension kicks in. They have indicated that they are willing to take the one-year hit in order to keep Green, whose improved offense and ability to defend multiple positions is invaluable. GM Bob Myers would love to move David Lee and the $15.5 million on the final year of his contract, which is not impossible given that it is an expiring deal. With no other big names to re-sign, the Warriors can let another team set the market for Green, even if that is a max offer. If that happens, (a) Golden State will become the third team in NBA history with five eight-figure players and (b) Stephen Curry will be their fifth-highest paid player.
11. LeBron James, F, Cleveland (Unrestricted): Relax, Cavs fans. He isn’t going anywhere, which is why he is randomly slotted here. The only way James doesn’t finish his career in his home state is if there is some sort of irreparable disconnect between him and owner Dan Gilbert that drives The King away. And if James went elsewhere, he would need a security force that would make President Obama blush. Depending on how you look at it, he could be first on this list or not even on it. So we arbitrarily placed him here. What is interesting is that he reportedly will not recruit Love to stay.
12. Paul Millsap, F, Atlanta (Unrestricted): One of the best signings of the last two years, as the Hawks paid less than $10 million annually for a tough, team-oriented player who has back-to-back All-Star appearances and continues to expand his game beyond the arc to remain relevant in a shooter’s league. At 30 years old, he will be looking for a max deal. But because Millsap is finishing up a two-year contract, he is an “Early Bird” free agent the Hawks can only offer him four years starting at a max of $16.675 million. Other teams can offer four years with a starting salary of $18.6 million. This is an extremely complicated equation, and Millsap’s options are many. If he takes a one-year deal, the Hawks will have full Bird rights on him a year from now and could give him a five-year deal worth $160 million.
13. Monta Ellis, G, Dallas (Unrestricted): He led Dallas in scoring last season, can give you 20 points in his sleep, has missed just 10 games in six years and still is on the right side of 30, at least until October. Ellis also took a considerable pay cut in his last contract (three years, $25 million) and likely won’t this time around, which made his decision to opt out of the final year at $8.7 million a certainty. The Mavs plan to move on without him, feeling his proclivity to hoist outside shots had a negative impact on both Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki. Shooting guards are not easy to find, and Ellis should find no shortage of suitors on the open market.
14. Reggie Jackson, G, Detroit (Restricted): It’s hard to envision GM Stan Van Gundy allowing both Monroe and Jackson to get away in free agency. But he does have a couple of hole cards that may help in retaining Jackson. One is that Jackson’s production didn’t make the Pistons winners. Another is Detroit still has Brandon Jennings, although he will be coming off a torn Achilles tendon. Keep in mind that Jackson forced his way out of Oklahoma City because he wanted to start and turned down a $48 million extension offer. The guess here is that Van Gundy will allow the market to set Jackson’s value before deciding to match. What he will not do is play hardball as he did with Monroe, because that would make Jackson an unrestricted free agent in 2016, when the bags of TV money show up. Jackson could be this summer’s Eric Bledsoe, threatening to sign his qualifying offer and then becoming unrestricted in 2016. Will be an interesting case.
15. Enes Kanter, F-C, Oklahoma City (Restricted): Probably the best pickup of the trade deadline, even though his awful defense in the pick-and-roll and at the rim – coupled with Serge Ibaka’s absence – made the Thunder look like an ABA team down the stretch. But Kanter’s offense is a welcome addition for a team that normally uses its centers as screeners and goons, and his effectiveness – if not his production – should be even better when lining up alongside Ibaka and Kevin Durant, whose free agency clock is ticking loudly. Now all GM Sam Presti has to do is convince skinflint owner Clay Bennett to look beneath the sofa cushions for the eight figures annually that it will take to keep Kanter, either with an offer right out of the gate or by matching another team’s pitch. That means luxury tax territory for one season until the cap jumps next summer. How OKC deals with Kanter is a direct referendum on Bennett.
16. DeMarre Carroll, F, Atlanta (Unrestricted): Along with Green and Middleton, Carroll figures to receive one of the league’s biggest pay raises this offseason from his $2.44 million salary. Scotto has him in his five free agent sleepers column, but these playoffs showcased Carroll’s skills to a much wider audience. He has become one of the best “3-and-D” guys in the league, and his numbers (career highs of 12.6 points, .487 FGs and .395 threes) were certainly enhanced by playing alongside four All-Stars in a system that took advantage of his willingness to screen and cut rather than just stationing him in a corner. Millsap remains Atlanta’s priority, but with the Hawks under the cap this season and new ownership in place, it’s hard to imagine him heading elsewhere. Then again, strange things happen every summer.
17. Tobias Harris, F, Orlando (Restricted): Just 22, Harris is going to get max money; you can bet your bottom dollar on that. But here’s two questions: Does he deserve it? Everything he has accomplished has been with awful teams. And will the Magic match? The educated guess here used to be yes, because that is what Rob Hennigan has told Magic season-ticket holders. But the proof will come when the 72-hour matching window begins to tick away, and the Magic have to decide if there may be too much collateral damage from having Harris making significantly more money than teammate Nikola Vucevic, whose $12.8 million salary in 2018-19 might make him the NBA’s most underpaid player. (That title will be held for the next several seasons by Stephen Curry, the MVP, who is under contract for $11.4 million next season and $12.1 million the following season.) Keep an eye on New Orleans — and the Knicks if they whiff on getting a big man.
18. Brandon Knight, G, Phoenix (Restricted): He was Jimmy Butler with training wheels, unable to reach accord on an extension with Milwaukee in October, elevating his game to borderline All-Star level and setting himself up for a huge payday as a restricted free agent this summer. Then Bucks management – likely influenced by ownership’s struggles in getting taxpayers to pick up more of the tab for a new arena – got out from under Knight’s impending payday and dealt him to Phoenix, where his season dovetailed with an injury. But Knight is just 23 and is about as close to a max salary point guard as you will find out there this summer. In today’s NBA, he is a much better option than Rajon Rondo. And given that the Suns traded away so much to get him, he is a lock to get major money in Phoenix– likely $70 million over 5 years.
CONTINUE READING: Nos. 19-35 | Nos 36-50
Butler in Chicago is not eligible to get a 1 year deal from LA. The media repeated this story over and over and the CBA does not allow it. A qualifying offer from LA must be at minimum 2 years guaranteed. If Chicago offered him absolute max then LA must offer at least 3 years guaranteed. Under no situation can LA offer only 1 year. Butler would need to accept 1 year at the minimum qualifying offer and go to full UFA next season. That is the only way he is eligble next off-season for a deal. Chicago is the only team that can offer him a 1 year deal. If he wants out badly and to be UFA next off-season, then I suspect it will be a sign-and-trade involving CHI. LA can’t sign him to what he is reportedly wanting. It will be at least 2 years.
Reference: http://www.nba.com/media/CBA101.pdf
Section C. Right of First Refusal Rules, (1) Offer Sheets., Item (b)
(b) Offer Sheets must be for a minimum of two seasons (not including any option year), except that if
a player’s prior team tenders him both a standard one-year Qualifying Offer and an alternative
offer of a “maximum” salary, five-year contract, then the Offer Sheet must be for a minimum of
three seasons (not including any option year).