Let’s be real here for a second. As nice of a job as the San Antonio Spurs did in free agency, along with the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks, does that really make any of them the outright winners?
No, it says here.
Despite a ton of unfinished business (LeBron James, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova remain unsigned free agents, and a Brendan Haywood trade is coming), the Cavs are emerging as the biggest winners of the summer for one simple reason: None of their pursuers (with the possible exception of Miami) got demonstrably better.
Let’s look at the so-called contenders in the East.
Aside from the Cavs, the shortest odds to win the 2016 NBA Finals for any Eastern Conference team is the Chicago Bulls at 20-1. Behind them are the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat at 40-1. You like the moves the Raptors made? Fine … go bet them at 65-1 to win the championship. The have longer odds than the Pacers (50-1), Wizards (50-1) and Bucks (60-1).
Since nobody in the East has gained ground on Cleveland in the personnel department, I am declaring the Cavs the undisputed winners of the Summer of ’15. If they are entirely healthy, and they bring everyone back (not even counting if they trade Haywood for Jamal Crawford) here is their depth chart:
C–Timofey Mozgov, Anderson Varejao
PF –Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Rakeem Christmas
SF –LeBron James, Mike Miller
SG–Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith, Joe Harris
PG–Kyrie Irving, Mo Williams, Matthew Dellavedova
To quote Moses Malone: “Fo, fo fo.” Back then, it was a three-syllable road map to a championship for the Sixers. In this case, it represents the number of playoff games the Cavs will need to get to the NBA Finals.
Let’s take a look at the Top 6 Eastern Conference Contenders Not Named “Cavaliers,” and put their summers into perspective (last season’s W-L record in parentheses).
ATLANTA HAWKS (60-22): Yes, they kept Paul Millsap, and they are probably going to max him out in two years when the salary cap will be around $100 million (provided there is no lockout). They also added a backup center in Tiago Splitter, another in Walter Tavares, and a proven NBA rotation player in Tim Hardaway Jr. to back up Kyle Korver. But they lost DeMarre Carroll, who was their leading scorer in the postseason and the only one aside from Jeff Teague who seemed to have a killer instinct. You lose a killer instinct guy like Carroll, and there is no way you come out of the summer as a winner.
MIAMI HEAT (37-45): Flirted with a lot of guys, came close with J.J. Barea, but ultimately emerged with nothing more than Justise Winslow, which was a heck of a draft pick at No. 10. Assuming Chris Bosh comes back healthy and Hassan Whiteside is suitably motivated to have a career year as he heads into free agency in 2016 (he will make only $980,000 this season), you have to say the Heat are a legitimate contender, and it would be nice to see them match up against Cleveland in the Eastern Conference finals with everyone healthy. Remember, they never got a chance to use Goran Dragic and Chris Bosh together last season, and their starting five — Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Bosh and Whiteside — is as strong as anyone’s. Josh McRoberts and Chris Andersen are nice bench anchors, but there is little backcourt depth.
CHICAGO BULLS (50-32): Their offseason will be best remembered for Tom Thibodeau being escorted to the loading dock by security guards after he cleaned out his office. They kept Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy and Aaron Brooks. They drafted Bobby Portis, who may or may not not crack the rotation. New coach Fred Hoiberg has a tough act to follow, but if he does not lose the locker room the way Thibodeau did, a breath of fresh air could be just what this team needed. Most important player moving forward is Joakim Noah, who is in a contract year heading into the Summer of Durant/Whiteside/Noah.
TORONTO RAPTORS (49-33): Could have been a “We The North” summer with Carroll, Cory Joseph and Bismack Biyombo coming aboard, along with a nice draft pick in Delon Wright. But why, oh why let Lou Williams walk? There is a reason why he won the Sixth Man Award last season, and you don’t just let guys like that go. Also, say what you want about Amir Johnson’s shortcomings, but he was all the Raptors had at the power forward position, and the Celtics liked him enough to give him $24 million over two years, which is $500,000 less than Stephen Curry will make.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS (46-36): Apologies to John Wall, but their best player during the postseason was Paul Pierce, who has left for the Clippers. Jared Dudley and Gary Neal are either nice players, retreads or something in between. You don’t want either of them taking the last shot of a tight game the way you wanted Pierce to take that shot. They’ll be OK, but they won’t get out of the second round. No team has structured its cap maneuverability better than the Wizards, whose only players under contract for 2016-17 — the season after the Summer of Durant — are Marcin Gortat, Wall, Bradley Beal and Kelly Oubre (and Otto Porter if his option is picked up). They can clear $12.5 million by declining the player options on Martell Webster, Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS (41-41): Quite a coup getting Greg Monroe when everyone expected him to go to the Knicks, but the word is out about how bleak things look in New York for the foreseeable future. They locked up Khris Middleton and have Jabari Parker, Michael Carter-Williams and Giannis Antetokounmpo on rookie contracts for the next few years, so they’ll be players in free agency next summer with a pretty good nucleus to sell to players who care more about winning than weather. If Whiteside is among that group, maybe they go after him.
And that brings us to the West, which is a whole different animal.
Yes, the Spurs captured the biggest fish by landing LaMarcus Aldridge, getting David West as well. But they lost a reliable bench shooter in Marco Belinelli, along with both of their centers, Tiago Splitter and Aron Baynes. Do you think Pop told Aldridge the part about how he now has to bang in the post night to night against the likes of Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Omer Asik? Heck, Roy Hibbert could be a tough cover for the Spurs when they play the Lakers. So their kudos comes with an asterisk. Let’s see what Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford can come up with between now and the end of the summer.
Then, we have the Mavericks, who swapped out Monta Ellis for Wesley Matthews, which is an upgrade, but lost Tyson Chandler and missed out on DeAndre Jordan. Can Matthews get you past Golden State, Sacramento or Oklahoma City? I’m not ready to go there.
The Kings did well, too, especially if Rondo can somehow become coachable, but you have to wonder whether the DeMarcus Cousins trade talks from late June are going to resurface again, and you have to wonder if George Karl is going to be arrested on murder charges from coaching Cousins and Rondo. One thing for sure, they will be interesting to watch.
Sort of like the Cavs, the winners of the 2015 NBA offseason.
Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.
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Why has the media keep wrongly asserting for years that Tim Duncan is a power forward? He’s a center.
Tons of spelling errors in this post.
Mo Williams will be playing backup PG, not SG. and Dellavedova will likely be a “defensive specialist” and be plugged in at both the 1 and the 2.