We spent much of July covering the Summer League, and as always, some of the most interesting stories revolved around the performances of the most prominent new rookies.
Basketball fans know by now to take Summer League stats lightly, as they rarely translate to much more than the vaguest indication of what a player will do once the regular season rolls around. Case in point: Seth Curry is not about to average 25 PPG in the league. But he did earn himself a two-year deal with the Kings through his sensational Summer League performances, which means the league does count for something.
Where the rookies are concerned, that something is our first look at how young players are adjusting to the size and speed of professional competition. So how did our top candidates for Rookie of the Year in 2015-16 fare through this process?
Well, first we have to define those top candidates, which at this early stage is a shaky process at best. For the most accurate definition, I turned to the odds, where Betfair’s sports section has already set aside a category for 2015-16 Rookie of the Year likelihood. To be clear, the odds for individual players aren’t actually set just yet, but the site has set aside four top candidates: D’Angelo Russell, Jahlil Okafor, Emmanuel Mudiay, and No. 1 overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns. So for the sake of narrowing the conversation down, these are the four I’ll discuss (and really, it’s hard to argue with these four as top ROY candidates).
Here’s each player’s outlook for potentially winning the award.
D’Angelo Russell – G, Lakers
D’Angelo Russell enjoyed a somewhat-late surge up draft boards in June. It wasn’t in the sense that he climbed many spots, but more by way of overtaking Jahlil Okafor, who for most of the past year looked like a lock for a top-two pick. Many have suggested that the Golden State Warriors’ NBA title proved the need for star guards over star big men. With Stephen Curry the reigning MVP and NBA Champion, Russell may have become more appealing simply by virtue of his size and position. Whether or not that’s the case, he’s now shouldered with the responsibility of propelling the Lakers back to contention—and frankly, his Summer League performance wasn’t a good start.
As Bleacher Report noted, Russell turned the ball over a worrisome 27.4 percent of the time he had possession, which implies that he had some trouble getting up to speed. He did show some scoring punch here and there, but overall Russell looked careless and erratic, and certainly not like the future star the Lakers are hoping he becomes. He remains a ROY candidate simply because he has the talent to justify a top-five selection. However, I’d put him at the bottom of this list for a few reasons: he’s playing with Kobe Bryant (who will dominate the ball and keep Russell from getting into too much of a statistical rhythm), the guard strength of the Western Conference will result in a harsh learning curve, and he’ll have to fight with second-year point guard Jordan Clarkson for his own position.
Jahlil Okafor – C, 76ers
Jahlil Okafor had a more limited sample size during the Summer League, appearing in only two games. For the most part, he met expectations (both good and bad), approaching a 20 points/10 rebounds average but struggling mightily from the free throw line. His defense remains a potential issue, and much of how we end up perceiving him will probably come down to whether or not he starts the season prepared to show improvement on that end.
Ultimately, I like Okafor as one of the two likeliest winners of the ROY award. This isn’t to say he’ll necessarily be one of the two best players from this draft (though I believe he’ll ultimately make the Lakers regret selecting Russell). Rather, it’s that his opportunity in Philadelphia will allow him to post the stats necessary to run away with this award. We saw the same thing happen with Michael Carter-Williams a couple seasons ago, and unfortunately for Sixers fans, things aren’t much better in Philly. This means a new rookie has just as good a chance of becoming a statistical force purely because no one else can produce. Tack on the fact that Joel Embiid may well miss another full season, and Okafor will be heavily relied upon—and this guy scores and rebounds a lot when he’s on the floor.
Emmanuel Mudiay – G, Nuggets
Emmanuel Mudiay put up respectable numbers for the Nuggets in his four Summer League appearances. He did turn the ball over five times per game (succumbing to a league-wide trend of frequent turnovers in a style of basketball that’s a little closer to pick-up than the regular season), but still managed a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. And for the most part, his numbers were well rounded, though his 2-for-14 performance from behind the arc is a slight concern.
But with Mudiay, it’s increasingly clear that it’s the intangible that impress the most. In an evaluation of his game during the Summer League posted by NBC Sports, certain terms and phrases stood out: “pure point guard,” “being able to lead,” “a flair to his game.” These descriptions, combined with the impression Mudiay makes with his athleticism, physicality, and evident emotional maturity, are what stand to make him great. But that’s not to say he won’t have statistical opportunities. Somewhat like Okafor, Mudiay is on a team that will allow for a rookie to lead statistical categories, particularly now that Ty Lawson is on his way out of town. I’d put Mudiay as likeliest challenger to Okafor for ROY.
Karl-Anthony Towns – F/C, Timberwolves
Towns will be a popular pick for ROY, just as he was more or less a consensus #1 overall pick when the draft finally rolled around. His Summer League performance, like Mudiay’s, was good but not great, with some general steadiness and intangible qualities standing, at times, above statistical output. Somewhat puzzling was how glued Towns seemed to the paint, after much of the pre-draft chatter concerned his impressive ability to step outside to hit jump shots. We may see more versatility from him as the regular season gets going, though.
It would certainly be no surprise to see Towns average something in the ballpark of 18 and 9 en route to an impressively efficient season and a ROY award—I just don’t quite expect it. He’s an incredible young talent and has a good chance to justify his #1 selection in the long-term, if not this year;. The Timberwolves are a deceptively complete team at this point, though, and there are veteran post players in place that will need their time on the court as well. Towns will almost certainly be better than both Nikola Pekovic and Gorgui Dieng some day, but right now both can be productive players in NBA games. Furthermore, Andrew Wiggins is the star in town, and Zach LaVine may be poised for a sophomore leap. I just don’t see Towns being enough of a point of emphasis to take home the award.