It takes a lot to make the NBA playoffs if you are in the Western Conference.
The West is the grown-up table of the NBA. It has had at least one team finish above .500 and miss the postseason every year since 2007.
There will be some shuffling in the West’s playoff picture this season. But who is in the frame, and who gets cropped out? And has any team improved enough to topple the defending champion Golden State Warriors?
The staff of Sheridan Hoops takes a look in this edition of the Three-Man Weave.
1. Which team is most likely to jump from the lottery to the playoffs?
CHRIS SHERIDAN, PUBLISHER: Assuming Kevin Durant is ready to go when the season begins, it is the Thunder without a doubt. Heck, these guys are good enough to knock off anybody when they are at full strength, and yes, that includes the defending champion Golden State Warriors.
CHRIS BERNUCCA, MANAGING EDITOR: Certainly the Thunder. Even without Durant, they might have made the playoffs last season if Serge Ibaka and his rim protection hadn’t missed the last 18 games. But how about the Utah Jazz? They won 38 games last season and return their entire core, most of whom are young and will continue to improve. They get back Alec Burks, who missed most of the season with a shoulder injury. They found out Rodney Hood can play. They added big man Tibor Pleiss, one of the top players in Europe. And Trey Burke can’t possibly be that bad again, can he?
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MICHAEL SCOTTO, COLUMNIST: The Thunder have two of the game’s top five players in Durant and Russell Westbrook, when healthy. Kanter and Ibaka make for an effective frontcourt pair thanks to Kanter’s post presence and rebounding coupled with Ibaka’s shot-blocking and ability to stretch the floor. Billy Donovan will bring energy and a fresh perspective to the game. The question is whether he can get on the same page with Durant and Westbrook. Cameron Payne is a nice replacement for Reggie Jackson while Steve Novak and Anthony Morrow will spread the floor for Durant and Westbrook to penetrate. The ingredients for success are there for a playoff berth and more.
2. Which team is most likely to fall from the playoffs to the lottery?
SHERIDAN: Portland. With all of their changes and playing in the unforgiving West, the Blazers could go from 51-31 to 31-51. In fact, I think 31 wins might even be an overreach; 25 sounds more like it.
BERNUCCA: Definitely Portland, which knows it is taking two steps back to take three forward. The Blazers lost five of their top six players who accounted for 68.9 points, 31.2 rebounds and 10.8 assists per game. The collection of kids isn’t replacing that. But the Dallas Mavericks may be in trouble, too. Once Wesley Matthews is ready, their starting five won’t be bad. However, their bench looks like a bunch of point guards and veteran minimum guys, and that doesn’t sound like enough in the West.
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SCOTTO: How quickly time flies if you’re the Trail Blazers. After entering as a division champion and fourth seed in the playoffs, Portland was eliminated in five games in the first round. To make matters worse, the team went into a rebuilding mode with the losses of LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez and Nicolas Batum when it appeared it had a nice young core for the future. Maybe, just maybe, Portland could sniff the playoffs in the East. But it’s not even close in the vaunted West.
3. Which team could topple Golden State as conference champions?
SHERIDAN: Realistically, any of the following: the Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Grizzlies. That is still a very tough conference, and let’s not forget that Golden State got to the Finals without having to face the Spurs or the Clippers. It will be interesting to see how the removal of a guaranteed top-four seed for a division winner impacts the postseason picture. It is a welcome change – and it is time to get rid of divisions.
BERNUCCA: The three teams they managed to avoid en route to their championship – Oklahoma City, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Clippers. Keep in mind that the Warriors were remarkably healthy last season; only Andrew Bogut missed considerable time during the regular season, and only Marreese Speights missed considerable time during the playoffs. Golden State hasn’t added anyone of significance, while Oklahoma City ideally gets Durant, Ibaka and Enes Kanter for a whole season; San Antonio added LaMarcus Aldridge and David West to a core that is 44-21 in the last four postseasons; and the Clippers now have a bench in Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith and Wesley Johnson. The conference semifinals are going to be wars.
SCOTTO: The Spurs and the Clippers are the biggest threats to the Warriors on paper. The Clippers retained DeAndre Jordan and added needed bench depth with Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith and Wesley Johnson. The Spurs added arguably the top free agent in LaMarcus Aldridge, a massive upgrade over the departed Tiago Splitter. David West will thrive as a bench player on a contender. With that said, the core for the Warriors remains in tact. The Spurs and Clippers made splashy moves this offseason, but it still may not be enough be beat the “Splash Brothers” and company.
Good read
I am surprised no one mentioned the Rockets as a team that could challenge GSW this year.
I believe Lawson was acquired after we posed this question. They really hadn’t done much before that. But a fair point. Thanks for reading.