Every year, unexpected players break out and teams exceed expectations. This year will be no different. So, here’s a strategic look and which players and coaches are the next in line to shock the experts and achieve more than was thought possible.
The Pistons’ Reggie Jackson will make the All-Star team.
This is a combination of Reggie Jackson having the opportunity to excel and the dearth of excellent point guards in the Eastern Conference. Backup Brandon Jennings’ injury will force Jackson to play more minutes and Kyrie Irving’s injury should open up a roster spot on the All-Star team.
Jackson was 26.9% more efficient after being traded from the Thunder to the Pistons last season. Of note, his assist percentage more than doubled after the trade. The Pistons started out just 2-10 after acquiring Jackson, but went 9-7 to end the year.
Just three of the top 10 guards in win shares were in the Eastern Conference last season: Kyrie Irving, John Wall and Jeff Teague.
The Pacers’ Myles Turner will win Rookie of the Year.
Myles Turner is athletic and can play defense. With the Pacers playing more small ball, Turner should absolutely shine.
Turner’s 12.3% block percentage last season at Texas (9th in NCAA) and 86.3 defensive rating (11th) show that he has the ability to alter, change and block shots. He’ll cover up a lot of mistakes at the rim with a small lineup.
Offensively, he showed tremendous talent in Summer League. Turner ranked 4th in offensive efficiency in Summer League out of the 294 players (min. 25 plays). The only other lottery pick in the top 20 was Stanley Johnson (17th).
The Bulls’ Fred Hoiberg will win Coach of the Year.
The Bulls return virtually their entire team from a year ago. That was 50-win team. Hoiberg’s offense should dazzle with the talent on Chicago’s roster.
Iowa State had the most efficient offense in the Big 12 (top 20 in the country on a per play basis). With the passing ability of Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol, the scoring ability of Jimmy Butler, and sharpshooters sprinkled all over the roster, expect the efficiency of the Bulls offense to spike.
The Bulls pace (bottom 10 of NBA) should get substantially faster if Hoiberg’s track record is any indication (17th-fastest pace in nation last season at Iowa State).
The Suns’ Tyson Chandler will prove to be the best offseason acquisition.
Tyson Chandler is an underrated player for several reasons, but he shouldn’t be. Chandler has led the league in offensive rating in 4 of the last 5 seasons. That means while he was on the court, his team’s offense was better than any other team’s offense.
A product of the system? What system? For two of those years he was with the Mavericks and for the other two he was with the Knicks. Offensively, he’s an excellent pick-and-roll player who doesn’t dominate the ball (0.8 minutes of possession per game).
He rarely dribbles and averaged just 0.1 dribble before a shot attempt last season (lowest in the league). He takes high percentage shots (average field goal attempt was from 2.9 feet). Chandler averaged 41.1 touches per game and 11.5 rebounds per game. He was decisive with the ball.
His rebound percentage was 6th in the NBA. It was a rate 26.4% higher than Phoenix’s leader (Alex Len).
He challenged 42.9% of shots at the rim as the primary defender, ranking 8th in the league.
Chandler is entering his 15th season, has been an All-Star, won a title and his experience and veteran leadership could be the factor that helps the Suns to the postseason.
Peter Newmann is an analyst and writer who spent 10 years at ESPN, 8 as the NBA senior researcher working 24/7 on the league. He wrote game notes for crews, articles for ESPN.com, analysis for studio shows, and regularly assisted reporters and writers. Follow him on Twitter, and check out his Web site, www.peternewmann.com.