Five Things to Watch: Minnesota Timberwolves

After failing for two decades to pair their franchise cornerstone – be it Kevin Garnett or Kevin Love – with a complementary superstar, the Minnesota Timberwolves finally have reason to believe they have found a perfect two-man combination for sustainable long-term success.

With Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns on hand, Minnesota has the NBA’s most promising 1-2 punch since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook joined forces with the Oklahoma City Thunder seven years ago. 

So despite finishing last season with an NBA-worst 16 wins, there’s now plenty of room for optimism in the Twin Cities. They finally have a true NBA-level starter at every position, yet still somehow possess an astounding eight former first-round picks who are 25 or younger, and that’s after the release of wonder-bust 22-year-old Anthony Bennett in September.

So, here are five things to watch for with these upstart Timberwolves as they gear up for the 2015-16 season.

1. Can Ricky Rubio take the next step?

Rumors surfaced this summer suggesting the Wolves were shopping point guard Ricky Rubio. That was likely untrue, per league sources, and has slight scent of agent hustling on Rubio’s behalf to generate trade interest. The truth is, I can understand why Rubio would want a change of scenery: Quite frankly, he would get a lot more credit and hype for his talent if he played in a different market.

Here’s my take: Rubio is criminally under-hyped – largely because he entered the NBA with unrealistic expectations in one of the best draft classes for point guards in NBA history. 

Sure, “La Pistola” has been injury prone in his four-year career (he’s missed 110 games), but when he’s been on the court, he’s sneakily been one of the most valuable point guards in the NBA. Shockingly, he’s still only 24 and finally has the shooters and athletes around him in Minnesota commensurate with his court vision and facilitating abilities. As he has developed a somewhat warranted reputation for his infamously inefficient perimeter shot, people have unfairly used that as a justification to overlook how good Rubio has been when healthy.

Although his sample size was limited last season, Rubio ranked fourth in the NBA in assist percentage, dishing out an assist on approximately 43 percent of his team’s scores while he was on the floor. Only Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and John Wall had better assist rates.

But to gain a better understanding of Rubio’s value when healthy, consider the drop-off in Minnesota’s efficiency when he was off the court. Per 100 possessions, Minnesota’s scoring decreased from 104.9 points to 102.2 points per 100 possession when Rubio sat. (Clearly his shooting doesn’t kill the offense as some pundits recklessly suggest). Defensively, the numbers are even more impressive: Per 100 possessions, Minnesota’s defense improved by more than eight points (from allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions to just 105.5 points) when Rubio was on the court.

If Rubio wasn’t stacked up against the other point guards in his class (Stephen Curry, Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday and Brandon Jennings, to name a few) and was playing on a better team, he’d probably have more hype.

2. How will the frontcourt shake out?

Perhaps the most interesting question for Minnesota involves its immensely crowded big man rotation. The team released Anthony Bennett in September to clear some minutes from the clutter. Still, Minnesota has six big men who all expect and deserve significant playing time in some capacity. The two projected starters, Towns and Kevin Garnett, represent the team’s future and past, and should provide a solid defensive foundation. 

After those two, things get a little murky.

Minnesota will have to accommodate minutes for their $12 million man, Nikola Pekovic, who was sidelined by injuries for most of 2014-15 and will likely feel miffed with the reserve title after extending in Minnesota on reluctant terms in the summer of 2014.

Gorgui Dieng and Adreian Payne, meanwhile, are two athletes with plenty of length and potential to develop. Dieng started 49 games for the Wolves last season and averaged 11.7 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per 36 minutes. Clearly, he will feel entitled to similar minutes this season as he’s shown versatility on both ends of the floor.

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That means Payne may be the odd man out here, even though he also started in the majority of his games after being acquired from Atlanta. Payne averaged 10.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per 36 minutes in Minnesota, though his block totals were disappointing (just 18 total in 29 games) and he couldn’t seem to defend the paint without fouling (4.2 fouls per 36 minutes).

Still, Minnesota did trade a future first-round pick for Payne, so it may be too soon for them to cut bait on the investment altogether. Payne looked decent at Summer League next to Towns and there are reasons to believe he can become a stretch-4.

3. Just how good is Nemanja Bjelica?

In addition to the five aforementioned bigs in the Wolves’ rotation, they will also feature a newcomer in 27-year-old Euroleague superstar Nemanja Bjelica. Before Bjelica was the 2015 MVP of the Euroleague, he was the 35th overall pick in the 2010 draft.

Bjelica is a Serbian point-forward (he plays similarly to Toni Kukoc and Boris Diaw) and owns a strong perimeter touch. He has converted on 143-of-365 (.392) shots from deep over the past two seasons. And because he handles the ball well and passes with advanced court vision, some think Bjelica may be able to play alongside two other bigs in Minnesota’s rotation. I’m not worried about that fit offensively, but I am skeptical of Bjelica’s ability to keep up with NBA wings on the defensive end.

I should mention that Bjelica dropped 24 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in a convincing win over a Pau Gasol-led Spanish team in EuroBasket 2015. Serbia reached the semifinals, where it eventually lost to Lithuania in a tight finish. Bjelica made an impression on quite a few NBA executives during the tournament; one Eastern Conference scout mentioned that he expects for Bjelica to have a Nikola Mirotic-like impact on the court in the NBA, sooner rather than later.

4. Is this Kevin Garnett’s last year?

Minnesota and Garnett both surprised when they agreed to a two-year contract worth $16 million. Garnett has logged less than 2,000 minutes over the past two seasons, so I wouldn’t expect to see him play more than 15 minutes per game at most. There is a clause in his contract that states if he is physically unable to play after next season, he will be guaranteed a spot on the coaching staff. Still, an $8 million deal is not a contract value worth sneezing at, and many are wondering whether taking minutes away from younger guys to give to Garnett playing time is the best allocation of money or resources.

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Garnett averaged 6.7 points and 6.6 rebounds in 47 games for Brooklyn and Minnesota last season and still provides solid defense and rebounding for his age. His offensive efficiency has withered away completely at this point. Regardless, with all of the young and talented big men on Minnesota’s roster, Garnett’s main job will be to set the tone for intensity at practice and provide insight to his teammates from the sideline.

The Timberwolves haven’t made the playoffs since 2004 and while they’re unlikely to make it this season, Garnett’s leadership could go a long way toward instilling proper training habits for the young nucleus going forward. And, at the very least, Minnesota will be able to sell plenty of No. 21 jerseys if it is in fact his final season.

5. Wiggins. Muhammad. LaVine.

It seemed preposterous to write a Timberwolves’ season preview without talking about Andrew Wiggins. The fact is, though, Wiggins isn’t really a question mark. Simply put, he exceeded high expectations as a rookie and was spotted working tirelessly in Las Vegas after hours this summer to improve even further. I am confident that he will have some sort of breakout this season. After all, he shot just 31 percent from deep as a rookie and already has demonstrated a new confidence with his touch that should enable him become a true two-way star in due time.

Minnesota is fully invested in him – so much so that it extended a training camp invitation to Andrew’s brother, Nick, to appease the family. It’s crazy to think Andrew would only be a junior had he stayed at Kansas. I think Wiggins will be ready to lead this team to the postseason next season.

For me, the bigger questions with Minnesota come with Shabazz Muhammad and Zach LaVine.

Muhammad established himself as one of the league’s best bullies from the wing. He posted up on 24.1 percent of his possessions – per SportVU – and rated as the fifth-best post player in the entire NBA in terms of efficiency, ahead of stars like LaMarcus Aldridge and Carmelo Anthony. Although he is just 6-6 and 227 pounds, Muhammad scored on 48.3 percent of his post-ups, ranking behind only Jonas Valanciunas, Wesley Matthews, Kevin Love and Donatas Motiejunas for points per possession from the post. At only 22,  I think Muhammad has tremendous Jimmy Butler-like breakout potential at some point, although it may not come until he finds a team that can afford him more possessions in the offense. He and Wiggins don’t share the court all too often, as their skill sets overlap somewhat and neither player stretches the defense particularly well.

LaVine, meanwhile, garnered headlines for his impressive showcase at the Slam Dunk Contest over All-Star Weekend. Now, at only 20 years old, he will look to use his length and athleticism to develop into a capable defender. He has really struggled on that end, which kept him from significant minutes at times last season. Offensively, he has all the tools to be special: His shooting is already strong, as he hit on 40.6 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities from the perimeter as a rookie.

PREDICTION: I’m higher on the Wolves this season than I have been on them in quite some time. Playing in the Western Conference, they are still on the outside looking in for the playoffs. However, with five legitimate potential stars on the roster (Wiggins, Towns, Rubio, Muhammad and LaVine) and a plethora of other quality up-and-comers, Minnesota’s playoff drought should be ending soon. If Andre Miller and Kevin Garnett can share just one alley-oop this season, it will break Twitter. I think this team will come close to doubling its win total from last season and hover around the 32-34 win mark. Look for Muhammad to establish himself as a Most Improved Player candidate early on and for Pekovic to eventually get traded by the deadline.

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Jacob Eisenberg is a contributing columnist to SheridanHoops.com. He specializes with the CBA and Salary Cap. Follow him on Twitter and check out his website.