Identifying breakouts in the NBA is actually easier than it may seem. Just look at the playoffs. Young players who played more (and better) than expected in the playoffs are your prime breakouts. This was how we knew prior to last season that Draymond Green was going to be a stud.
A second source is teams that didn’t make the playoffs but whose young players played more and better in the second half. This was how we learned Gorgui Dieng was likely to exceed expectations.
A third indicator is pre-season stats. Which young players look way better than they did last year? This was how we could predict a year ago that Rudy Gobert and Jimmy Butler were about to break out..
The common thread is young players who look significantly better in a recent sample, compared to their previous level. Since the 2015 preseason only just started, we’ll reserve that list for the end of training camps. Today, we look at four breakout candidates based on the playoffs. Tomorrow we’ll discuss some lottery team candidates.
Otto Porter
Below are Porter’s slash lines before the all-star break, post-break and playoffs:
| G | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | 3’s | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | |
| Pre-ASG | 49 | 18 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.46 | 0.736 |
| Post-ASG | 25 | 22 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.436 | 0.731 |
| Playoffs | 10 | 33.1 | 10 | 8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.443 | 0.476 |
Clearly, he gained the team’s confidence in the playoffs and broke through with 11.1 mpg increase. The results are very exciting for fantasy owners. Lots of rebounds, threes, steals and decent percentages — that low FT% in the playoffs is clearly a small-sample fluke.
What makes Porter such an obvious call for a breakout is that he has the pedigree as a third overall pick, is defensively mature and has no competition for minutes at the forward positions.
After the departure of Paul Pierce and given the fragility of Jared Dudley, Nene and Kris Humphries, Washington is expecting Porter to play major minutes at both forward spots. With ADPs of 144, 108 and 116 at Yahoo!, CBS and ESPN respectively, Otto will blow away those expectations.
C.J. McCollum
A former 10th overall pick and elite scorer in the NCAA, McCollum was forced into action after both Wesley Matthews and Arron Afflalo went down with season-ending injuries. At the time he was essentially viewed as a bust; then this happened:
| G | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | 3’s | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | |
| Pre-ASG | 38 | 12.5 | 5 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.398 | 0.703 |
| Post-ASG | 24 | 20.8 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.467 | 0.694 |
| Playoffs | 5 | 33.2 | 17 | 4 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.478 | 0.769 |
Especially appealing is how the FG% went from liability to asset with the increased minutes. The points, threes and steals are all excellent and forecast a big season for McCollum.
In terms of opportunity, Portland has cleared the decks. Both Matthews and Afflalo left as free agents and Nicolas Batum was traded. C.J.’s only real competition at SG is Gerald Henderson, who lacks McCollum’s 3-point ability – this is significant since Portland’s SF candidates Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless also lack 3PT range.
In addition to scoring on the wing, McCollum is being asked to back up Damian Lillard at point guard, which should boost his AST totals – if he can get three or more assists per game, this is a top-40 profile at a ridiculously low cost ( ADPs of 127, 131 and 118 in Yahoo!, CBS and ESPN respectively.)
The major obstacle will be his defense. I would be far more concerned about that if Portland was trying to be competitive this year.
Meyers Leonard
Leonard started his transition from afterthought to intriguing piece in fantasy at last year’s training camp, where he showed off an excellent 3-point shot. He held his form throughout the season, shooting 42% from deep, then exploded in the playoffs, making 10 of 13 attempts. Combine that with excellent FT shooting — 83.1% for his career and an insane 93.8% last year — and suddenly you realize that he is a special shooter.
Now factor in that he’s a true 7-footer, only 23 years old and the breakout potential becomes fairly obvious. Below are his numbers from the bench, as a starter and during the playoffs:
| G | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | 3’s | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | |
| Bench | 48 | 13.9 | 5 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.509 | 0.931 |
| Starter | 7 | 25.9 | 12.6 | 6 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.514 | 1 |
| Playoffs | 5 | 21.2 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 1 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.667 | 0.5 |
The percentages and threes are fantasy candy, but the rebounds, points and even blocks will be tasty too if his minutes climb into the 30’s. With LaMarcus Aldridge in San Antonio, the door is wide open for Leonard and he won’t cost you much to add, with ADP’s of 110 at Yahoo!, 140 at ESPN and not even ranked at CBS.
Bojan Bogdanovic
Already 26, Bojan is a little old for a typical breakout candidate but not so old to disqualify him, when y0u consider that last year was his first in the NBA.
| G | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | 3’s | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | |
| Pre-ASG | 51 | 22.7 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.411 | 0.851 |
| Post-ASG | 27 | 25.7 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.514 | .75 |
| Playoffs | 6 | 34.3 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.39 | 0.714 |
He saw a major increase in minutes in the postseason but very little change in actual production due to a collapse of his FG%. If he can combine those playoff minutes with his post-ASG FG%, you will have a useful player.
The rest of his profile is not particularly exciting and places him squarely at the bottom of our potential breakouts list, but like the others his cost is marginal (ADP’s of 140 and 122 at Yahoo! and ESPN and unranked at CBS) which presents a nice opportunity to add value in deeper leagues.