The highest-scoring day in baseball playoff history made some daily fantasy investors very happy. Going with the cheapest possible pitchers and the right combination of bats was the key to winning at DraftKings. In other words, the exact opposite of my strategy.
Today is a whole new season in DFS. Contests close at 4:37 Eastern, when the Cubs can clinch behind Jason Hammel $7700 as the desperate Cardinals send out John Lackey $9500, who won Game 7 of the World Series on short rest as a rookie, 13 years ago. The home team is loose and confident.
In the nightcap, Clayton Kershaw $14400 and the Dodgers face elimination against the Mets, who send rookie Steven Matz $9600 to the mound. It was only last year in the NLDS that Kershaw stumbled in a similar situation, losing to St. Louis on three days’ rest. The multiple Cy Young winner has a 1-6 postseason record with a 4.99 ERA and has lost five straight. Trend, or small sample-size fluke?
All the pressure is on L.A., as Jacob DeGrom (who beat Kershaw with a brilliant start in Game 1) is standing by to face Zack Greinke if there’s a Game 5. Obviously the Metropolitans would prefer to wrap it up at home but Matz hasn’t appeared in 19 days since tweaking his back, near his non-pitching shoulder.
Yesterday the Cards bent Jake Arrieta (4 ER) but couldn’t break him. I’m expecting another high-scoring affair with both bullpens getting plenty of work.
Plays of the Day
The $150K Moonshot is a $3 buy-in (FREE to new depositors at DK) that pays the top 11,780 finishers from up to 57,498 teams, with multiple entries permitted. First place wins $12,000. Enter before 4:37 and you can make lineup changes until each player’s game begins.
Going with Kershaw and anyone paints us into the corner of needing some bargain hitters. The Hammel-Lackey combination might produce enough IP and a W; it also leaves than maximum for bats — a $4100 average.
C/OF Kyle Schwarber $4000 and Travis d’Arnaud $3000 both homered on Monday. Miguel Montero $2900 would be another stackable Cub if you’re leaning in that direction.
Anthony Rizzo $4500 also went deep, though he’s yet to find the range in 12 AB vs. Lackey. 1B is tricky tonight, with likely starter Stephen Piscotty $4400 eligible only as an OF. Even against a southpaw, Adrian Gonzalez $3200 might be the value play.
At 2B, Howie Kendrick $3700 and Kolten Wong $3400 are solid choices. 2B/OF Chris Coghlan $3100 would be playable if he’s in the lineup, and the Dodgers seem to prefer 2B/SS Kiké Hernandez $2300 to rookie Joc Pederson $3200 in CF.
Matt Carpenter $4700 tops the 3B list, Kris Bryant $4100 homered yesterday and former Met 2B/3B Justin Turner $3400 might surprise.
Corey Seager $4200 didn’t even start on Monday, as Donnie Baseball went to Jimmy Rollins $2800. Starlin Castro $2900 is a better play than either, and seems sure to start with 2B/SS Addison Russell $3000 battling a tender hamstring.
Jason Heyward $4200 and Piscotty are the hottest OF in the mix-and-match alignments of Mike Matheny. Yoenis Cespedes $3700 added to his legendary status as a Met with a 3-for-5 night, a long homer and a world-class bat flip. Suddenly one of the hottest Cubbies, Jorge Soler $3600 has gone deep from the 2-hole in consecutive starts, while adding a single, double and four walks. We have turned a nice profit by spot-starting Justin Ruggiano $2600 against lefty SP; check the lineup. Don’t overlook Coghlan if he starts.
| Pos | Premium | Bargain |
| SP1 | Clayton Kershaw $14400 | Steven Matz $9600 |
| SP2 | John Lackey $9500 | Jason Hammel $7700 |
| C | Kyle Schwarber $4000 | Travis d’Arnaud $3000 |
| 1B | Anthony Rizzo $4500 | Adrian Gonzalez $3200 |
| 2B | Howie Kendrick $3700 | Kiké Hernandez $2300 |
| 3B | Matt Carpenter $4700 | Justin Turner $3400 |
| SS | Corey Seager $4200 | Starlin Castro $2900 |
| OF1 | Yoenis Cespedes $3700 | Jorge Soler $3600 |
| OF2 | Jason Heyward $4200 | Chris Coghlan $3100 |
| OF3 | Stephen Piscotty $4400 | Justin Ruggiano $2600 |
The Fantasy Spin features DFS advice every day of the NBA season. Until basketball returns, we’re offering baseball tips on weekdays. Follow Kent Williams @SheridanFantasy for updates.