Injuries play a vital role in fantasy success. They are impossible to avoid but your risk can be lessened. My basic rule is to never draft a player who is injured to start the year — the best predictor of future injury is a current injury.
I also try to avoid players who miss big chunks of the preseason due to injury, as those injuries tend to linger into the season, either in the form of re-injury, diminished results from playing hurt or the adjustment period those players go through in-season to make up for losing training camp.
Of course, players coming off injury who are fully healed heading into preseason can frequently represent some of your draft’s best bargains. Let’s start off with a survey of some who missed significant time last year but appear to be fully healthy and may be draft-day bargains.
Kevin Durant
Durant injured his foot last year and all reports are that he is good to go following surgery and a long layoff. He has played in both of the Thunder’s preseason games to date, averaging 22 minutes and 14 points. Prior to his injury he was the top player in fantasy and can easily be again. His current ADP of 4th or 5th, though not much of a bargain, is worth the pick.
Paul George
George missed most of last season following a devastating leg injury at a Team USA mini-camp. He did manage to return for the final six games of the season in a green light for this year, but averaged only 15 minutes and struggled with his shot (36.7 FG%).
He has looked great so far in the pre-season, playing in all three games; averaging 25 MIN and 21 PTS with a more normal 45.7 FG%. He is also getting to the line six times per game, an excellent sign. His ADPs are all over the map, from 7 at CBS to 21 at Yahoo! but since he appears healthy and ready to go, his ESPN ADP of 13 seems about right.
Jabari Parker
Parker tore his ACL 25 games into his rookie season. As the No. 2 overall pick, Parker is cast as Milwaukee’s franchise player, but no one expected The Bucks to perform as well as they did last year, especially after Parker went down and Larry Sanders was bought out.
In his absence, Brandon Knight and Khris Middleton stepped up, with Knight getting shipped for Michael Carter-Williams and Middleton signed to a near-max extension. In addition Milwaukee added Greg Monroe and its other cornerstone player, Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to blossom. As a result, the future role for Parker is in some doubt and his stats from those 25 games are kind of meaningless.
Will he step in and be top dog as was expected last year, or — for this season, at least — just a complementary player to the established core? He has been deemed healthy and is a full participant at practice, but has yet to see game action. I am not as concerned about Parker’s status as I am for Kevin Love. With ADPs ranging from 89 to 116, the uncertainty around Parker is fully priced in, but the upside justifies a pick in the 80’s. Feel free to target.
Kobe Bryant
Kobe has become a magnet for devastating injuries the past couple of seasons. He has amazingly fought to return every time and while he has lost some of his game, the Black Mamba still plays at a high level. So far he has surpassed expectations, with an average of 18 MIN through four games while increasing his point total in each, to 21 in his latest.
Bryant has excellent percentages and his FT rate is also creeping up. That said, the non-scoring numbers are not there. At this point, you just can’t expect Kobe to play more than 60 games, to see minutes in the 30’s or have a usage rate above 30 (it was 34.3 last year.) This sets up drafters for disappointment, as even his lowest ADP of 64 at Yahoo! is way too high.
Ricky Rubio
Rubio is another magnet for catastrophic injury, having played more than 57 games just once in his four-year career. Over his ankle surgery from last season, he is already on the shelf with a hamstring strain, causing him to miss all three preseason games so far. Add in trade rumors, the emergence of Zach LaVine and the additions of Tyus Jones and Andre Miller — Rubio is simply a risky bet. Now factor in his embarrassingly low FG% and the upside is capped. Low upside, high downside makes for a poor fantasy selection.
Jrue Holiday
Holiday has now missed major time in both of his seasons in New Orleans, becoming a source of controversy. The Pelicans accused the 76ers of failing to disclose a fracture to his right leg prior to their trade on draft day in 2013 and even received $3M as compensation when the league settled the dispute. When he has been on the court, Holiday has been a top 10 PG, but since that has been rare, his ADPs have fallen to the 50’s at Yahoo! and CBS and 86 at ESPN.
Despite a brief stint with the team at the end of last year and personal claims that he is fully healthy, Jrue will be limited to 15 minutes per game for the first three months, with no back-to-backs. So far they have kept him at 10 mpg for the first three preseason games. With Tyreke Evans taking over point duties and Norris Cole in the fold, stay far away from Holiday.
In Part 2, we’ll look at other players whose recovery from injury is still ongoing.