In Part 1, we looked at some players who couldn’t finish last season but appear to be healthy again. Today, we will focus on players who are still getting up to full speed.
There is a bit more risk drafting this group until we are sure they are fully recovered. At the very least, don’t overpay for them.
Serge Ibaka
Ibaka missed the final 18 games of the Thunder season following knee surgery. While his numbers regressed overall, he was on a tear following the trade for Enes Kanter, with whom he pairs perfectly in the frontcourt. Like Kevin Durant, Serge has played in both of the Thunder’s preseason games, averaging 22 minutes and 12.5 points. His ADP’s at Yahoo! and ESPN are 20 and 18. I like him a lot this year, but those draft positions might be a reach if his durability can no longer be counted upon. At his CBS ADP of 47, Ibaka is a no-brainer.
Kevin Love
Love separated his shoulder in the playoffs and should have no lingering effects. That said, he has yet to play in a preseason game and didn’t complete his first full practice until October 10th. While Cleveland says that holding out Love is strictly precautionary, this should raise some alarm bells and illustrates a bigger concern for drafting Cavaliers — they are preparing for the playoffs already, which means extra rest or DNP-CDs for their stars.
Love’s value is primarily tied to his FG%. When it is up, he’s a first rounder, when it’s down, his value resides in the 40’s. He was limited to perimeter duty for much of last season, which hurt his FG%; the hope is that a Tristan Thompson holdout would see him get looks closer to the basket. His ADPs are ranging from 23 to 33, which looks about right to me.
Chris Bosh
Bosh’s season ended following a blood clot in his lungs. The injury is not expected to recur. Channing Frye, a player with a similar game, immediately returned to form after missing an entire season following his heart procedure. I link the two because neither injury affected the players’ mobility, but rather their conditioning.
Bosh has played in all three Heat preseason games. averaging 23 minutes and 13.7 points. His percentages are excellent as is his FT frequency. There is no reason to discount him for injury this year and he may even bounce back from a poor season with all the additional help in Miami this time around. His Yahoo! and ESPN ADPs (39 and 33 respectively) are a slight reach but Bosh is another no-brainer at the CBS ADP of 59.
Julius Randle
Randle broke his leg during his first game of the season of last year, so we never even got a glimpse of what type of player he could become. He is fully healthy, having played in all four Lakers preseason games, averaging 24 MIN, 13.5 PTS and 6.5 REB. Randle even played four games in summer league, averaging 20.5 minutes.
I also don’t expect Brandon Bass to steal a single minute from Randle, so health and playing time obstacles are not really concerns here. It is what he does with those minutes that matters. Since he is not expected to contribute much in AST, 3PM, STL or BLK, his ultimate value will be tied to his FG%. With ADP’s ranging from 105 to 125, he’ll need a FG% above 50 to deliver value but the upside is certainly worth the plunge.
Aaron Gordon
Gordon was a classic example of a player who missed training camp last year due to an injury then never really got on track when he returned, tallying only 5.2 PTS over 47 games. His FG% was marred by a terrible 3PT% of 27.1 on 47 attempts, but he still only shot 50% on his two’s. The FT% though came in better than expected at 72.1. Like Randle, Gordon got an early start to his camp with some summer action where he absolutely dominated, leading the Orlando league in both scoring and rebounding.
In one preseason game, two steals and a block in just 17 minutes highlighted his potential in fantasy. Expect Gordon to be in the Magic’s rotation from the start, battling Tobias Harris for shots and minutes. He is certainly worth a late flier in standard leagues and among the potential breakouts in deeper leagues.
Mirza Teletovic
Teletovic suffered a similar injury to Bosh and should also be fully recovered. Unlike Bosh, the value of Teletovic’s game remains a bit of a mystery. Mirza is certainly not afraid to take threes, averaging one 3PA per 4 minutes over his career; whether he can make them remains open for debate. His 2014-15 3P% was only 32.1 after posting a 39 in 2013-14.
Because of the high volume of long shot attempts, Teletovic will always be a drain on FG% and for a supposed shooter, he has a mediocre FT% of 72.3 for his career. Finally, mix in some horrible defense and he basically becomes Byron Mullens, who is no longer in the league. If you are short on 3’s, he has value, otherwise stay away.
Anderson Varejao
Varejao hasn’t played more than 65 games in a season since 2009-10 and in four of the five years since, his GP has peaked at 31. He is healthy now, having played in all three preseason games. As he has aged, his elite rebound rate has fallen and so has his fantasy value. Without many blocks and with a low scoring rate, you are drafting him almost purely for those rebounds. At this point you can’t rely on him at all, but if Thompson remains absent and Love’s injury is worse than they are telling us, Varejao could be a source of upside in deep leagues, at least until his next serious injury.
Shabazz Muhammad
After committing to his conditioning last offseason, Muhammad burst onto the fantasy scene during all of the Wolves injuries, averaging 18.1 points on 49.5 FG% and 5.3 rebounds in December. His season was cut short by a ligament tear in his middle finger. Through three preseason games, he’s averaging 14.5 minutes and 8.7 points. His usage rate is still above 30 though he has yet to find his stroke, shooting only 36% from the field and 54.5% from the stripe.
His biggest challenge will be finding minutes in a suddenly crowded rotation with the additions of Nemanja Bjelica and Tayshaun Prince and the move of Zach LaVine to shooting guard. In order to push his way in, Shabazz will have to improve on D. His defensive rating was well below average (110.4) and remains well below average this preseason (108.3). With his fantasy-friendly usage rate, keep eye on him in deeper leagues.