At Presidents’ Weekend last season, the Miami Heat were in the running to make the playoffs in their first season following LeBron James’ departure. Chris Bosh told SheridanHoops after the All-Star Game that he was excited for Miami’s playoff push.
Then came the shocking news that Bosh would miss the rest of the season with blood clots on his lungs. Without him, the Heat missed the postseason for the first time since 2008, the year before Erik Spoelstra took over as coach.
Changes may have been forthcoming even before Bosh’s ailment – which thankfully did not end his career or his life – but they appeared expedited when Miami acquired point guard Goran Dragic in a huge trade before February’s deadline, with the intent of signing him to a long-term contract.
With Dragic locked up to the tune of five years and $85 million, Miami’s starting five of Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Bosh and breakout star Hassan Whiteside ranks among the Eastern Conference’s best.
President Pat Riley also wanted to deepen and diversify the bench over the offseason and was seemingly quite successful. Justise Winslow was drafted from Duke. Amar’e Stoudemire and Gerald Green were added via free agency. Shabazz Napier was dealt to Orlando. Along with holdovers Josh McRoberts, Mario Chalmers and Chris “Birdman” Andersen, Miami’s depth now appears to be a strength.
The Heat’s roster looks strong, but at least five important issues – or things to watch – could very well define their 2015-16 season.
1. Can the Heat stay healthy?
The Heat have a really good nucleus on paper, but the major question will be how many games will this core group will spend together on the floor?
Dwyane Wade missed 20 games last season and hasn’t played 70 games since the 2010-2011 campaign. Chris Bosh is expected to play in the regular season opener after the blood clots on his lungs that threatened his life and career.
As good as Hassan Whiteside was last season – and he was a revelation for Miami – he only played in 48 games last season. Will he be able to withstand an 82-game campaign? Luol Deng just turned 30, free agent pickup Amar’e Stoudemire’s knees are as brittle as they come and the frontcourt pair of Josh McRoberts and Birdman Andersen are coming off injury-riddled seasons.
2. Which Hassan Whiteside are we getting?
Before last season, Whiteside had played a total of 19 NBA games. All but one of those came during the 2011-2012 season with Sacramento. And then?
All of a sudden, Whiteside became one of the league’s best stories. He shot 62.8 percent from the field in 23.8 minutes per game while averaging a double-double, posting a ridiculous 26.2 PER and a plus-20 net rating per 100 possessions, including an excellent 97 defensive rating.
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Whiteside was unbelievably efficient around the basket, as shown in his shot chart from last season.
If you think Whiteside’s 66.3 percent interior shooting is impressive, consider this: He took nearly 83 percent of his shots in that area and shot 70.9 percent within five feet of the basket. Among players last season who made 100 shots from that range, Whiteside ranked sixth behind Kevin Durant, Brandan Wright, Marcin Gorta, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Iguodala.
Everyone, especially Riley and his Heat staff, want to know if Whiteside’s season was a flash in the pan or a sign of things to come for the 26-year-old 7-footer.
3. Can Goran Dragic help Miami pick up the pace?
Dragic likes to get up and down the court, gliding his way toward the rim and slithering through the slimmest of creases in the lane to get to the basket. To say that Miami’s pace over the last few years has been deliberate – even when LeBron James was in town – would be an understatement.
The Heat’s pace, or possessions per 48 minutes, ranked 29th in the NBA last season. Since Spoelstra took over as coach prior to the 2008-2009 season, the highest the team has ranked in pace was 16th. Unlike in 2013-2014, when Miami was 27th in pace but 12th in scoring offense, the Heat scored just 94.7 points per game last season, fourth-lowest in the league.
Here’s a chart on where the Heat’s offense fell in the league’s bottom third last season:
| Heat Offense 14-15 | Average | NBA Rank |
| Field Goal Attempts | 77.2 | 30 |
| Assists | 19.8 | 30 |
| Pace | 90.9 | 29 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 9.1 | 29 |
| Field Goals Made | 35.2 | 28 |
| Points Per Game | 94.7 | 27 |
| 3-Point Pct. | 33.5 | 24 |
| Offensive Rating | 103.9 | 21 |
Many of these problems could be remedied if the Heat generated more possessions. Despite a low offensive rating, Miami was fairly efficient offensively. It finished ninth in points per shot, ninth in 2-point field goal percentage, 10th in free throws attempted and 11th in overall field-goal percentage.
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Even Dragic at the xcontrols for a full season, Miami is never going to fly up and down the court. But the Heat would be better served if their $85 million point guard was allowed to push it once in a while, even as a change of pace. Fewer than 95 points a game isn’t going to cut it again this season, even in the East. Dragic can help.
4. Will Justise be served?
All the best teams receive some good fortune along the way, which is in part how Miami was able to draft Justise Winslow out of Duke. Even though the Heat won their season finale against Philadelphia and finished with the 10th-worst record, the lottery balls fell their way and allowed them to keep their pick. The Sixers would’ve gotten the pick had Miami’s pick fallen outside the top 10.
Then in June’s draft, Winslow slipped all the way to 10th, leaving teams wondering how Miami ended up with its man yet again. The 6-6, 19-year-old Houston native is a versatile defender who shot 48.6 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from the arc while winning a national title in his lone season as a Blue Devil. If Winslow can defend multiple positions, rebound well for his size and convert a decent percentage from three, he will really have a chance to contribute and help the Heat as a rookie.
Winslow could very well be a strong addition to the team, but who else will fill out Spoelstra’s bench rotation?
5. Will the bench improve?
Despite being right in the middle of the pack in minutes played, the Heat’s bench scored the third-fewest points per game, according to HoopsStats.com. That’s likely one of the reasons why Riley beefed up his team’s reserves this season, starting with the additions of veterans Stoudemire and Green along with the rookie Winslow. With McRoberts back from a meniscus injury that cost him all but 17 games last season, Miami will have at least nine reliable players who could consistently score at the NBA level.
If Miami suffers any injuries, old stalwarts Chalmers, Andersen and Udonis Haslem will be there to take on some of Spoelstra’s minutes.
The Heat clearly have a well-constructed roster on paper, one that can compete for a high seed in the East. But can they stay healthy enough to make a postseason run? It’s one of the most important questions facing Miami.
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Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who focuses on analytics, profiles and features. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. You should follow him on Twitter.
Hi, I don’t know why the people continue to think that Miami Heat will be finish in 2 place , The Heat can be finish in any place , but i can assure you that the Cavaliers will not finish in 1 place , the last year i said Lebron clean your mind , your are done with the Titles , forget about more champion ring , remember this no more ring for Lebron , if the heat make a good rotation and keep moving the Ball , we will be champions again
Hey man, that pick to the sixers was top ten protected, meaning if they got the 11th pick or worse they would owe it to Philly. From 1-10 the pick was safe. This is what you said…..Even though the Heat won their season finale against Philadelphia and finished with the 10th-worst record, the lottery balls fell their way and allowed them to keep their pick. The Sixers would’ve gotten the pick had Miami gotten the 9th pick or better.