An important aspect of preparing for traditional fantasy drafts is to watch as many preseason games as possible, thoroughly review the nightly box scores and read game reports by each team’s beat reporters.
In the first of two parts, here are my observations for each team in the West. They may help in your draft room and hunting for opening-week DFS bargains.
Dallas Mavericks
A fantasy wasteland. Deron Williams, Devin Harris and J.J. Barea are set to share PG duties and none is appealing. The gradual decline of the great Dirk Nowitzki continues; he is being over-drafted. Center candidates look awful and that will be a merry-go-round all year.
One bright spot is John Jenkins, who seems set to break out. He should open the season as the starting SG and may hold off Wesley Matthews as the team sinks into the abyss. If you have already drafted, get Jenkins off the wire now. Matthews remains important as the sole average — let alone plus — defender on the roster. Expect lots of run-and-gun ball with Chandler Parsons at the four and either Nowitzki or Dwight Powell as stretch fives. Load up against Dallas in DFS play.
Denver Nuggets
A mecca for fantasy. Emmanuel Mudiay may have ugly numbers to start the season, but by the all-star break that will all be forgotten. Expect huge in-season improvement. Gary Harris is the SG to own. He’s been fantastic in preseason and even if he doesn’t start the first game, he will start by the tenth. Will Barton, Joffrey Lauvergne and Nikola Jokic look like fantasy magnets who will play and produce friendly lines even in limited minutes. Mike Malone is my preseason Coach of the Year.
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all look good to go. Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala are also set to deliver on their draft day cost. Andrew Bogut will lose quite a few minutes, but that is priced in and he still represents fair value. Not many minutes will be left for Marreese Speights, Festus Ezeli and Jason Thompson — while each will have some big games, by the end of the season all will likely disappoint. Expect a lot of contributions from a lot of places.
Houston Rockets
Ty Lawson looks good and safe to draft. He will easily earn his current cost. PF is a mess with both Donatas Motiejunas and Terrence Jones currently out. Jones has received good reviews but is being over-drafted given the durability issues. Expect to see a lot of Trevor Ariza at the 4 and Corey Brewer at the 3. Clint Capela has continued his tantalizing play from the playoffs and is looking like a sneaky add, as Dwight Howard will eventually miss a stretch of 10 to 20 games.
Los Angeles Clippers
I am concerned about Chris Paul and his broken finger. He’s playing, but for how long? SF remains a quagmire and I would avoid them all including Paul Pierce. Josh Smith looks solid coming off the bench, while Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers will get theirs. All three bench options make good deep-league targets.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are a big-time tank candidate, which means lots of roster and role turnover. D’Angelo Russell needs more time. Expect to see a lot of Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams in the fourth quarter early on. Julius Randle needs to be moved up draft boards. Kobe Bryant looks good enough but that’s not how he is being drafted. The rest of the roster is not worth mentioning.
Memphis Grizzlies
A sleeping giant with the league’s best second unit. Not fun to own in fantasy as the team is filled with high floor, low ceiling guys. Deep leaguers should take notice of all the cheap options. Any of Tony Allen, Matt Barnes, JaMychal Green, Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, Beno Udrih and Brandan Wright can go off on any night and all should post efficient lines by season’s end.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl-Anthony Towns is the real deal and don’t worry about playing time, that will sort itself out. Zach LaVine is starting but has not looked good. Push him down your board. Nemanja Bjelica is not starting but has looked great. Push him up your board, a lot. Gorgui Dieng will play and is undervalued as a fantasy contributor. If you miss out on the big boys, he makes for a nice consolation prize.
New Orleans Pelicans
PG is a mess with Jrue Holiday on a minutes restriction, Tyreke Evans recently undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery and Norris Cole also nursing an injury. Though avoiding the lot, I could be tempted by Holiday in keeper leagues if he falls far enough. Ryan Anderson is back and has returned to his pre-injury form, while Eric Gordon looks like he will continue his end of season surge, making them both excellent value plays on draft day. Along with Anthony Davis, they will take most of the available shots, leaving nothing but scraps for the rest of the roster.
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC is the best-looking team of the preseason. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka are good to go and safe to draft where you normally would. Though Enes Kanter and Steven Adams seem destined to share C, both can produce in limited minutes. Even Dion Waiters, looking useful as a scorer coming off the bench, is now a nice deep league target.
Phoenix Suns
Eric Bledsoe is the engine that drives this train and deserves a high selection. Load up against Phoenix in DFS when he sits. Tyson Chandler and Alex Len are both set to disappoint in a timeshare, though my money is on Len emerging as the starter in the second half and the Chandler contract becoming an albatross. T.J. Warren continues to impress and may be draft day’s best bargain, even in a reserve role. Markieff Morris is safe to draft, P.J. Tucker is not.
Portland Trailblazers
Another home for fantasy bargains. C.J. McCollum has a lot of draft helium but can justify the cost as the #2 option. Meyers Leonard is now firmly entrenched as the PF and will produce plenty of fantasy value, if he can avoid foul trouble. Even though Mason Plumlee is expected to start, Ed Davis is the better option in fantasy. Expect Al-Farouq Aminu and Mo Harkless to share SF and tantalize and frustrate their owners. Harkless is the better get purely on price.
Sacramento Kings
Rajon Rondo is already a bust. If he doesn’t lose his starting spot out of the gate, he will soon thereafter and may fall out of the rotation, too. Darren Collison is the third-best player on the team and will finish as a top-15 PG. Go get him. George Karl will ride the hot hand at SG, making both Ben McLemore and Marco Belinelli tough to own.
Omri Casspi has followed up his strong close to last year with a good preseason and is set to become the team’s sixth man, taking those Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins shots with the second unit. In other words, oodles and oodles of fantasy goodness there. Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein won’t hurt you but they are unlikely to help much either.
San Antonio
Kawhi Leonard is the new top dog, not LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a big risk in fantasy this year — think Kevin Love a year ago. It is going to take some time for Pop to figure things out, so patience will be necessary. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and David West will all contribute, even if it is a little less than last year. They represent nice bargains in deep leagues given the draft-day discounts. This leaves very little appeal for the rest of the roster.
Utah Jazz
Don’t worry about Rudy Gobert. He will be fine. Rodney Hood is one of the Jazz’s four best players. It doesn’t matter if he comes off the bench, he will get starter’s minutes and plenty of usage. Trey Burke has won the starting PG spot and played well enough that he now makes for an excellent value play if you need assists. The Jazz are essentially a 6-man team, so feel free to draft any of their top six (including Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks) and leave the rest behind.