In the NBA, a fast start is essential for a playoff run. Over the last 10 seasons, I looked at the 300 team seasons and how a team’s record over its first 10 games is correlated to its chances of making the postseason. Does how you start impact how you finish?
While no team started 10-0 over that span, 37 teams started 9-1 or 8-2. Every one of those teams made the playoffs.
There were 40 teams that started 7-3 and 90% of those teams went onto the postseason.
On the flipside, a slow start can pretty much end your season before it starts.
Over the last 10 seasons, 3 teams started 0-10 and 13 teams started 1-9. None of those 16 teams made the playoffs.
If you start 2-8, chances are slim, but there is a chance. Just 2 of the 18 teams that started 2-8 made the postseason – the 2006-07 Raptors and 2010-11 76ers.
A 3-7 start is a big hole to climb out of, but it can be done. Over the last 10 seasons, 41 teams have started 3-7 and 20% of those teams recovered to make the playoffs.
10-Game Starts
Last 10 Seasons
Record Total Teams Pct Made Playoffs
9-1 10 100%
8-2 27 100%
7-3 40 90%
3-7 41 20%
2-8 18 11%
1-9 13 0%
0-10 3 0%
Peter Newmann is an analyst and writer who spent 10 years at ESPN, 8 as the NBA senior researcher working 24/7 on the league. He wrote game notes for crews, articles for ESPN.com, analysis for studio shows, and regularly assisted reporters and writers. Follow him on Twitter, and check out his Web site, www.peternewmann.com.
If you’re in the West, a fast start might mean something. In the East, it makes no difference whatsoever.