Here is a prediction you won’t find in too many places: Kevin Durant is going to demand a trade in the first week of February if – and this is a big “if” – things are not going well in Oklahoma City.
If you think about it, it makes sense. We all know that the Summer of Durant is only one winter away. We all know that the Thunder would have won multiple titles by now if skinflint owner Clay Bennett had decided to pay James Harden what he was worth rather than trade him for a bag of hammers. We should all expect that GM Sam Presti is going to be walking the unemployment line in July if Durant leaves Oklahoma City, because every sh*tshow features a fall guy, and Presti is the person who coined the term “sustainable team.”
So all eyes are going to be on Oklahoma City as the season progresses, watching to see if the Russell Westbrook we saw at the end of last season can co-exist with a healthy Durant, watching to see whether Serge Ibaka’s strong defense can compensate for Enes Kanter’s non-existent defense, and whether Billy Donovan can jump from the NCAA to the NBA and match wits with the likes of Gregg Popovich, Kevin McHale, Steve Kerr and George Karl (yes, in this corner of the basketball journalism universe there is a strong belief that Karl is indeed sitting on a powder keg, but it is a powder keg that can crack the top 8. Our gambling guru feels stronger about it than anyone.)
There are other storylines around the NBA that can contend with the Thunderdoom angle.
In the East, the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls can rightly be considered legit contenders to get past LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, who sort of pick up where they left off by beginning the season without Kyrie Irving — but also with a better backup, Mo Williams, who will relegate Matthew Dellavedova to his proper role of 12-minute-per-night pest.
The Cavs are rightfully favored to win the title, and it says here that a fully healthy Heat team can give them a run in the Eastern Conference finals. Of course, the chances of the Heat being fully healthy come May are about as strong as former Florida governor Jeb Bush remaining a contender in the U.S. presidential race. If someone had told you a year ago that Bush would be getting hammered in the campaign by a bombastic horse’s ass wearing a baseball cap and a retired neurosurgeon whose days of worship are Saturdays, you’d have dismissed it as the rantings of a lunatic. But sometimes the lunatics run the asylum (see Cousins, DeMarcus; or Bennett, Clay), and thus you should dismiss bold predictions at your own peril.
After all, you would have guessed the Hawks would have won 60 games last season. Or the Warriors would win 67. Or that Jason Kidd would have more success in Milwaukee than was possible in Brooklyn. Or than Lamar and Khloe would somehow, some way find a way to reconnect. Or that Derek Fisher would be given a pass for blowing off practice, flying across the country to cavort with the ex-wife of one of his former teammates and get a total free pass from the New York media.
So the point here is to not rule out anything when looking ahead to the NBA regular season.
Look, LeBron James could get seriously hurt, which would mean the path to the Finals during the middle part of this decade would appear as a road bump in the NBA Encyclopedia a decade from now, when we look back and count up LeBron’s titles.
Anything can happen in the NBA, as Luke Ridnour – traded four times in six days – can attest. So there is hope not only for the Heat, but also for the likes of the Bulls, who are banking that Fred Hoiberg can be every bit the great coach Tom Thibodeau was (good luck with that); the Hawks, who are replacing their best postseason player, DeMarre Carroll, with someone from the trio of Kent Bazemore, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha; and the Pistons (underestimate Stan Van Gundy at your own peril).
At least we know this much for sure, whoever comes out of the East the Cavs will face a formidable foe in the Finals, with the top teams in the West even stronger than they were 12 months ago. That was back when LaMarcus Aldridge was still saying he wanted to be a Blazer for life, pundits were debating whether Steve Kerr had made the right choice in spurning Phil Jackson and the Knicks for a franchise that hadn’t won a title in 39 years, and we were all of the belief that the career of Ron Artest Metta World Peace Panda’s Friend had reached its extinction date.
We have a Clippers team that is waaaaay deeper than it was a year ago, with Paul Pierce and Jamal Crawford forming the best fourth-quarter assassin duo in the league, along with Lance Stephenson having a lot to prove in a contract year. We have a Spurs team that added Aldridge and David West but seems to be banking that the 3 B’s at center – Bonner, Boris and Boban – will have more than enough fouls to expend while trying to defend the 3 D’s – Dwight, DeAndre and DeMarcus.
We have a Lakers team that has Kobe Bryant returning to play with D’Angelo Russell, the No. 2 pick in June’s draft, and Julius Randle, the No. 7 pick in the 2014 draft. Once again, I will caution you to underestimate someone at your own peril. If Roy Hibbert still has a pulse, Kobe is the guy who can turn that into high blood pressure.
The Rockets have added Ty Lawson, which mean we have thankfully seen the end of the Jason Terry-as-key-player dynamic. The Kings have added Rajon Rondo, Kosta Koufos, Willie Cauley-Stein, Caron Butler and Marco Belinelli. They have ditched the idea of trading Cousins, as hard as that may be to believe for Celtics GM Danny Ainge and his wheelbarrow full of trade assets.
The Jazz are going to be sneaky good … and stingy. The Grizzlies will be the Grizzlies, playing their non-conformist slow-down style. They have more continuity than any returning contender, and there is something to be said for that. The Pelicans have Anthony Davis, but they’re also missing about half their team due to injuries, and we have seen that movie before.
So again, the “it” team to keep an eye on during the first half of the season is the Thunder. If they are healthy, there is no way they should finish shy of 62 wins. But Durant has not exactly been the model of stability over the past couple of years (quitting Team USA, changing agents twice, breaking off his engagement, breaking his foot … twice). And if the Thunder aren’t winning anything close to three-quarters of their games, do not be surprised if Jay-Z pulls Presti aside at All-Star Weekend and pulls a Bill Duffy/Goran Dragic move: “Move my guy to the Lakers or the Wizards, or you’ll lose him for nothing in July.”
It will be a long slog through the next six months, then the playoffs will arrive, and then the Summer or Durant, a.k.a The Summer of Fiscal Insanity. The salary cap is jumping to $90 million, and everybody expect Vivek Ranadive, David Griffin, Pat Riley and Masai Ujiri will have a loaded wallet.
The parade in Akron will happen a week before the draft, LeBron will headline the 12-team Team USA roster for the Rio Olympics that will be named prior to the draft, the Sixers will win the lottery and have four first-round picks to reward their fans for their patience with the Hinkie process, and we’ll go from there.
But we have to get there first.
So with that in mind, here are the annual SheridanHoops staff predictions for the 2015-16 season:
CHRIS SHERIDAN – Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. “I’ve already said enough in this column.”
MVP-LeBron James, Cavs.
Rookie of the Year-Stanley Johnson, Pistons.
Coach of the Year-Stan Van Gundy, Pistons.
Most Improved Player-Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks.
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Jazz.
East Winner: Cleveland.
West Winner: Golden State
NBA Champion, Cleveland.
CHRIS BERNUCCA – Managing Editor/Columnist. “The two best players in the NBA are LeBron James and a hung-over LeBron James. No one else is even close. Not Kevin Durant. Not Stephen Curry. Not James Harden. Not Anthony Davis. No one. James is as far ahead of the rest of the NBA as Michael Jordan was in the 1990s.”
MVP-LeBron James, Cavs.
Rookie of the Year-Emmanuel Mudiay, Nuggets.
Coach of the Year-Jason Kidd, Bucks.
Most Improved Player-Zach LaVine, Timberwolves.
Defensive Player of the Year: DeAndre Jordan, L.A. Clippers
East Winner: Cleveland.
West Winner: Houston
NBA Champion, Cleveland.
JAN HUBBARD — Senior Columnist. “It is very simple. Cleveland is clearly the best team in the East and although the west is much more challenging, the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge and David West will make the Spurs even better. Title No. 6 for the irascible Pop and his partner in brilliance, Tim Duncan.”
MVP-LeBron James, Cavs.
Rookie of the Year-Emmanuel Mudiay, Nuggets.
Coach of the Year-Gregg Popovich, Spurs.
Most Improved Player-Marcus Smart, Celtics.
Defensive Player of the Year: Andre Drummond, Pistons
East Winner: Cleveland.
West Winner: San Antonio.
NBA Champion: San Antonio.
JAMES PARK — Tweet of the Night Author. “The Golden State Warriors are a dynasty in the making and the only thing standing in the way of their second consecutive championship is an injury to Stephen Curry. Well, that and just about the entire Western Conference, but the Warriors still stand out as the team to beat after no team managed to take them to the distance last season.”
MVP-Russell Westbrook, Thunder.
Rookie of the Year-Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves.
Coach of the Year-Steve Kerr, Warriors.
Most Improved Player-C.J. McCollum, Trail Blazers.
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Jazz.
East Winner: Cleveland.
West Winner: Golden State.
NBA Champion: Golden State.
MICHAEL SCOTTO — Columnist/Free Agency Expert. “The two biggest storylines will be whether LeBron James can deliver Cleveland a title and whether Kevin Durant will leave Oklahoma City or not this summer.”
MVP–Anthony Davis, Pelicans.
Rookie of the Year-Jahlil Okafor, 76ers.
Coach of the Year-Jason Kidd, Bucks.
Most Improved Player-Reggie Jackson, Pistons.
Defensive Player of the Year: DeAndre Jordan, Clippers.
East Winner: Cleveland.
West Winner: San Antonio.
NBA Champion: San Antonio.
KENT WILLIAMS — Fantasy expert. “Chris Paul finally makes a Final; Doc Rivers gets “most improved GM” for adding playoff heroes Paul Pierce and Josh Smith.”
MVP–Anthony Davis, Pelicans.
Rookie of the Year-Emmanuel Mudiay, Nuggets.
Coach of the Year-Brad Stevens, Celtics.
Most Improved Player-Otto Porter, Wizards.
Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis, Pelicans.
East Winner: Cleveland.
West Winner: L.A. Clippers
NBA Champion: Clippers.
JAKE HENSON — Gambling guru. “The Cavs will be touch slow out of the gate but eventually get things together to take on the last man standing in the brutal Western Conference.”
MVP–James Harden, Rockets.
Rookie of the Year-Karl Anthony-Towns, Timberwolves.
Coach of the Year-Billy Donovan, Thunder.
Most Improved Player-Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks.
Defensive Player of the Year: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs.
East Winner: Cleveland.
West Winner: Oklahoma City.
NBA Champion: Oklahoma City.
PETER NEWMANN — “All of my opinions are based upon facts, and my logical interpretation of those facts. The Pacers will find that extreme small ball will make other teams play into their hands. Their smalls are really good, and teams are going to have a tough time playing against them. It’s an out-of-the-box pick, but if anyone is going to dethrone the Cavs, it will be with a unique style — you take the Cavs’ bigs off the court and beat them with better guards.”
MVP-Kevin Durant, Thunder
Rookie of the Year-Myles Turner
Most Improved-C.J. McCollum, Trail Blazers
Coach of the Year-Frank Vogel, Pacers
Defensive Player of the Year-Draymond Green, Warriors
East Winner: Pacers
West Winner: Spurs
NBA Champion. Spurs
SHLOMO SPRUNG — Analytics expert/columnist. “The Spurs, Thunder, Clippers and Rockets will all be better, but will it be enough to unseat Golden State? I’m not so sure.”
MVP–James Harden, Rockets.
Rookie of the Year-Emmanuel Mudiay.
Coach of the Year-Billy Donovan, Thunder.
Most Improved Player-Zach LaVine, Timberwolves.
Defensive Player of the Year: DeAndre Jordan, Clippers.
East Winner: Cleveland.
West Winner: Golden State.
NBA Champion: Golden State.
NICK GIBSON — Euroleague Writer. “The Hawks and Bulls will give the Cavs a better test than folks think, but LeBron is good at basketball. In the Finals, LeBron will grimace on every missed shot, whine when he doesn’t get the whistle, and find creative new ways to throw David Blatt under the bus.”
MVP-Anthony Davis, Pelicans
Rookie of the Year-Emmanuel Mudiay, Nuggets
Coach of the Year-Brad Stevens, Celtics
Most Improved Player-Dennis Schröder, Hawks
Defensive Player of the Year-Anthony Davis, Pelicans
East Winner: Cleveland
West Winner: San Antonio
NBA Champion: San Antonio
MARK HEISLER — Columnist Emeritus. “Like all seasons now, this one starts out focused on LeBron’s attempt to win another title and gain ground on MJ, etc.. Even if he looks like Gulliver and the East looks like a bunch of Lilliputians, I’d guess it won’t turn out that way just because things so rarely go the way everyone thinks they will….. On the other hand, the Spurs are always the Spurs. I’d bet on that being good enough.”
MVP–Kevin Durant, Thunder.
Rookie of the Year-Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves.
Coach of the Year-Fred Hoiberg, Bulls.
Most Improved Player-Kent Bazemore, Hawks.
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Warriors.
East Winner: Chicago.
West Winner: San Antonio.
NBA Champion: San Antonio.
SheridanHoops.com, founded by 25-year veteran NBA writer Chris Sheridan, has been publishing since September, 2011. Follow them on Twitter.
Yeah…these are horrible predictions!
Lol this is a joke. Ok say okc thunderd does have horrible year yea I could see Kevin Durant leaving but not till the end of the year cause with the team that is around him he could go to the playoffs still and knock out a championship or at least a western conference championship! 2nd of all we would not fire Prestie dude is one the top tier GMs in the league considering what he was doing with the owener ship who never would go over the salary cap till recently! This prediction is horrible just like the article it was a very hard read. Do see all the coach’s Dovan has surrounded himself with for his first year in the league! If we traded anybody it would most likely be Kyle singler or one of the draftees we picked up this year..
I lost all respect for this author as soon as I read Kevin McHale being a coach for Donovan to match. Are you f******* kidding me? What a joke! He is NOT a top tier coach! Just a top tier team with a middle tier coach!