By Chris Sheridan
KAUNAS, Lithuania — This city is the birthplace and/or childhood home of Arvydas Sabonis, Sarunas Jasikevicius, Sarunas Marciulonis and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and by the end of next weekend it will be the metropolis (to use that word loosely) where the latest European champion is crowned.
Eight teams have made it to the quarterfinals of EuroBasket, and the do-or-die portion begins Wednesday night with Spain-Slovenia and Macedonia-Lithuania.
Thursday’s games are France-Greece and Russia-Serbia, and the semifinals — which will determine which two teams qualify for the 2012 Olympics — are scheduled for Friday.
Here is a look at each of the quarterfinal matchups:
SPAIN-SLOVENIA — I previewed this game in some detail yesterday after speaking to Spanish coach Sergio Scariolo, and the determining factor as to whether Slovenia will have a chance will be their ability to slow down the tempo to a snail’s pace and stay within striking distance through the fourth quarter. That was the formula that served Russia so well four years ago when they upset Spain in the finals of Eurobasket 2007 in Madrid, so it is not an impossible thing to accomplish. But even if this becomes a halfcourt game of five-on-five sets, Spain has just too much size and talent in the low post with Pau Gasol and Marc Gasol, backed up by Serge Ibaka (four years ago in the loss to Russia, the Spanish team ran nearly every single play in the fourth quarter for Pau Gasol. Now, they have a second Gasol option, and Marc has looked every bit as good as his older brother over the course of this tournament.) Slovenia is missing several of its top players (including Bostjan Nochbar, who nonetheless has traveled to Kaunas to support his countrymen), and Spain will look to get the ball out of the hands of veteran guard Jaka Lakovic, a 33-year-old who spent the past five seasons with FC Barcelona after playing the previous four for Panathinaikos. PREDICTION: Spain by 19.
MACEDONIA-LITHUANIA — Folks back home in America should be pulling for the team from the former Yugolavia, because their point guard is an American from New Orleans named Bo McCalebb who attended the University of New Orleans, sat on the bench for an entire Las Vegas summer league when he was trying out for the Sacramento Kings, then headed to Europe. I profiled him a few days ago when I was in Vilnius for the second round, explaining how he has become one of the best players on the continent, leading his last two teams, Partizan Belgrade and Montepaschi Siena, into the last two EuroLeague Final Fours. He is under contract to Siena for two more seasons and has a seven-figure buyout, and he genuinely seems to enjoy the European lifestyle and the dedication of the fans. He is the second-leading scorer remaining in the tournament (averaging 20.6 points to Tony Parker’s 22.1), and his speed advantage over Lithuania’s lead-footed point guards will be a key factor. Only a last-second, banked-in 3-pointer by Sergei Monia of Russia in Monday night’s final second-round game kept Macedonia from going unbeaten in the second round, and they should not be taken lightly. If there is going to be a difference-maker in this game for Lithuania, it’ll likely be young, fresh and fly Jonas Valanciunas. PREDICTION: Lithuania by 2.
FRANCE-GREECE — If the Greeks were at full strength with Dimitrios Diamantidis, Sofaklis Schortsianitis and Vassilis Spanoulis, they would be formidable. But all three of those players are sitting out this tournament, and the Greeks are relying on Nick Calathes and Antonis Fotsis as their most important players. I really like Calathes’ potential, but he will be no match for Tony Parker, and as long as Joakim Noah’s bruised knee is sufficiently healed to allow him to get up and down the court, I don’t see the Greeks having much of a chance. (It doesn’t help that they are having internal issues, with one of their better players, Ioannis Bouroussis, having been benched for the second half of their most recent important game, against Russia last Saturday.) Then again, the French have a long recent history of playing great until the games become especially meaningful — a history they are constantly reminded of by folks in their homeland. But Boris Diaw and Nicolas Batum help provide a distinct talent advantage, and Parker is as hungry to lead his national team to the Olympics as he was in 2007 when he was the MVP of the NBA Finals and the Spurs swept the Cleveland Cavaliers. PREDICTION: France by 6.
RUSSIA-SERBIA — Just a hunch, but I like his to be the closest game of the quarterfinals, and I am a big believer in Russian coach David Blatt’s ability to make the right adjustments and play calls to put his team over the top. He has been one of the most successful coaches in Europe for quite some time now (he holds dual American-Israeli citizenship, he grew up in Framingham, Mass. and attended Princeton), he has kept his two best shooters, Sergei Monia and Victor Khryapa, fresh by limiting their minutes, and he has gotten Timofey Mozgov back to having a level of confidence that George Karl robbed from him. Serbia also has a genius coach in Dusan Ivkovic, whose young team came within a whisker of beating Turkey in Istanbul last summer in the semifinals of the World Championship. Nenad Krstic will be relied upon to carry the load in the low post, but Mozgov can limit him if he stays out of foul trouble. That means the key player for Serbia could be point guard Milos Teodosic, who has spent the past four seasons as the floor general for Olympiacos. The Serbs have an especially balanced team, yet they are not quite as experienced as the Russians. PREDICTION: Russia by 1.